Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 4, 2021

This weekend saw yet another step-up in Chinese aggression—over 90 incursions in three days. While the world asks, “WTF!?” Taiwan rallies international support based on its IC chip industry. Taiwan supplies a good portion of the world’s semiconductors. If China invaded Taiwan, that could pretty much shut down the world’s supply of phones and computers. Coming from Taiwan, it’s almost a PR campaign: “We make your tech work; if China hurts us, then China hurts you too.”

This past weekend was a national holiday for Taiwan and China, celebrating the founding of their common government in history. It is not unusual for military saber rattling to step up about this time of year. That doesn’t mean China isn’t a threat. That means China used its easy excuse to make more threats.

The US responded by clearing its throat, reminding the world of its many military assets in the region. The Philippines wants the Mutual Defense Treaty with the US to have stronger language, clarifying just how much protection the US would bring. China thinks it has standing to object to a treaty for which it is not a party. And, China said Taiwan can expect more next year if the “collusion” between Taiwan and the US doesn’t stop. “Collusion”—that’s how China sees things. Perhaps the word “paranoid” has relevance somewhere.

Indo-Pacific

China

Taiwan

Hong Kong

Philippines