Taiwan has a new president. Security is a hot topic. New leaders bring change. Change can be unstable.
As a general rule, web and program developers don’t like software “updates” because they can cause other dependent software to crash. In general, admirals and generals don’t like map updates either, and for good reason. Constantly changing political maps, territorial claims, and which flags rightly fly over which pieces of dirt and puddles of water can cause planes and boats to crash. Frequent updates are not good for “stability”, even “security” updates—whether software or political.
Beijing concerns itself with the “1992 consensus”, yet China’s attempt to update the world’s maps—without prior consensus—prioritizes its own “security” over its own “stability”. In this, the world clearly sees that neither “consensus” nor “stability” are Beijing’s ongoing concerns, only sometimes.
China and the US rattled sabers over Taiwan. Arguably, they smacked sheathed sabers. A US Navy ship, USS William P. Lawrence, sailed past one of China’s military-stocked man-made islands with two Chinese jet escorts chasing it away. Chinese and Washington generals want to increase freedom of navigation and communication. Washington wants Taiwan to spend more on asymmetric military defense against China.
The US is concerned about China’s missiles preventing it from intervening should China invade Taiwan. Guam and Okinawa are supposedly at risk and could be denied access to Taiwan’s defense. This concern has activated a strong response from the US and Taiwan to prepare responses. The new US electromagnetic railgun is approaching its days of early deployment and already has active prototypes. It can travel 7 times the speed of sound, uses no explosive propellants, costs less money, allows transporters to carry more ammunition, can penetrate steel “like a hot knife through butter”, receives satellite and other guidance, and can be used as both an assault and anti-missile defense system.
So it would seem, just as China claims freedom of navigation in the South China Sea has given Beijing reason to erect islands, China has given the US the excuse it needs to deploy technology that blurs the lines between science and science fiction.
China is angry. It’s always easy to tell when someone makes lightly veiled threats in the forms of “advice” or “caution”. These comments came from a Chinese diplomat, that pressure in the South China Sea could “rebound” like a “coiled spring”, depending on where it is “aimed” by the US.
In his analogy, he didn’t seem to elaborate on how an engineering culture explains US “aiming” (intention) having a direct effect on spring-coil physics. Usually, one aims with a sling, not a spring; and their is no pressure, only tension and sudden impact.
Chinese easily make grand contradictions in their implications when they don’t say most of what they think. This is part of the East-Asian “implication-driven” culture. The problem is that they rarely see the implications of making contradictory implications—the problem being that it is incredibly obvious to Westerners skilled in recognizing things at face-value.
Putting his conflicting analogy on the couch, this likely indicates he feels more frustration than his Asian culture tells him is appropriate to express. According to Reuters:
China has been particularly angered by what it sees as interference by the United States, whose military has carried out “freedom of navigation” patrols through the sea.
It is evermore clear what is happening: The US is patrolling the same waters, with sling in hand as always. Beijing feels “pressure” from the continuance of peaceful patrols. China behaves as if it knows something the US does not.
Between the fighter and the bull, we know who is in control. And we know who is angry and who is indifferent in the arena of Southeast Asia.
Kim Jong-Un just became Chairman of his political party, in addition to being the Great Successor of the DPRK. The party held a rare meeting, the first in 36 years, where he observed, or properly, “chaired”. There appear to be no reports of whether the meeting was a great success.
Taiwan’s soon-to-be-ousted, lame duck Education minister says that the controversial national high school curriculum—opposed for rewriting history as to murder and slaughter under the direction of KMT-Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-Sheck—says that the curriculum has no problems. He considers the curriculum to be part of his legacy. So it is.
Interesting things are happening in London. Events of the Atlantic will echo in the Pacific.
Northern Korea launched a missile that travelled 1/10 the distance it needs to. Pyongyang considered it a “success”.
China has come to a consensus about its activity in the South China Sea. The consensus did not include all ASEAN nations. And, the US continues to disagree with the consensus.
The City Council Speaker of a southern Taiwan city, Tainan, was found guilty of “vote buying”. This was the second guilty verdict. He was relieved of his speakership the next day, placing control of City Council back in the hands of the majority party, same as the popular Mayor William Lai. Former Speaker Lee is a member of the KMT, which recently lost the national elections for the legislature and the presidency. With Lee removed from the Speakership, Mayor Lai will no longer protest City Council meetings, removing over a year of city-wide gridlock.
A Chinese official, Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi (王毅), has become the first to recognize Taiwan’s Constitution. He says that the president elect, Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), should “abide by it”. Tsai has promised to declassify documents about the 228 Massacre, which the Taiwanese observed in memory this past weekend. The three day weekend of Feb 28 (2/28) stands as a blight on the face of Chiang Kai-shek, who founded the recently defeated KMT-Nationalist party and slaughtered 10,000 to 30,000 people in Taiwan, depending on who you ask, during the time of his flight from the revolting Communists. Statues of the “Hitler of Taiwan” were defaced throughout Taiwan over the weekend. Officials are “not yet” pressing charges.
While Taiwan exposes more truth and topples statues of tyrants, China is finding vengeance on booksellers. The times are ripe with contrast. Nations in the region see anything but peace in our time.
China is deploying weapons. The US is responding with pressure—mostly economic, some political, always involving alliances. Money and trade are atop the list.
China’s unusual manipulation of its money is documented and under more scrutiny than ever.
According to Chinese State-run media, China has weapons on disputed islands by right. According to the government, US concern over militarizing those islands is “hype”. Still, Asean is watching the Pacific and so is Bloomberg.
