Prelude to Conflict: Asia, September 22


When Ma stepped on board Taiwan’s frigate and smiled for the camera, he wasn’t smiling for the Taiwanese, he was smiling for Washington. Beijing has harbored too much friendliness with the KMT Nationalists and not enough with Taiwan’s DPP. Washington’s comments last week about supporting the KMT in 2016 will change that to shape both Taiwanese parties to fit the Pentagon’s agenda: military strength against China.

Now, two events to suggest thugs in Taiwan: The farmer who blew the whistle on Taiwan’s food oil scandal was sought by ‘men in black’ and Sunflower Movement international press translator, Oliver Chen, suspiciously falls off a cliff far from his home. Both people created big problems for the KMT Nationalists who control Taiwan—more importantly, they created trouble for Beijing, which has over 2,000 undocumented Chinese in Taiwan. Taiwan’s premier announces that Taiwan is already independent, even though his friends in Beijing threatened open war if Taiwan declares itself independent. Events of this week only add to the shift in the prelude that began last week: This is becoming less and less about West v East and more and more about the people v establishment politics.

The best thing Beijing could do, for all issues in the East, is to tell Hong Kong: Elect whomever you like as your CEO, but we reserve the right to initiate one recall election per term, should you elect an incompetent fool. Neither Britain nor the States nor Taiwan could argue with such a policy since they all have experienced “buyers remorse” after their own recent elections. But, far be it for the West to tell Beijing what to do. Success was “bestowed upon the West”, after all, since [in Communist thinking] all success is either bestowed or stolen, never earned through wisdom and counsel as Solomon taught (Proverbs 24:3-6).

But the West must deal with their own problems before they are in any position to teach China; and vice versa.

Taiwan Sunflower Translator Dies

Ask the Departed, Ask the Living

…A good article about the issues and great photo of Oliver

Sunflower Student died driving off cliff

Facebook announcement in English

…Oliver Chen (陳瑞光), International press correspondent for the Sunflower Movement that controlled Taiwan’s legislature three weeks, died the night of September 15. His scooter tumbled off a 20M cliff and he was pronounced dead on arriving to the hospital. When he doesn’t live near the area where he was driving, and since he was such a strong personality in the international press, many suspect foul play. It would be unlikely if no one in the KMT Nationalist party, who has a reputation for scheming, didn’t at least discuss the idea. But more than the KMT, no one wanted Oliver dead as much as Beijing, as the Sunflower Movement harmed Beijing’s goal of seizing Taiwan. With 2,000 undocumented Chinese in Taiwan, and with planning able to be away from Taiwan’s soil, Beijing certainly had the stronger capability and the stronger motive. Then again, it could have been an unusual freak accident. Whether this was a conspiracy or a perfect coincidence for Beijing remains unknown. But we know for sure that some force in the universe, nature or human, martyred a most outspoken individual and this will inevitably have the effect of energizing the voting base against Taiwan’s political establishment, and give more Taiwanese reason to rally to the Sunflower’s cause.

Tang Prize’s Yu praises Sunflower protests


Defense ministry opposes Chinese ships’ berthing

Air force practices freeway landings

…An annual exercise that made headlines this year. And the next day…

Navy holds live-fire drill on both coasts

In first for Ma, president boards frigate to inspect maritime drill

ROC not Scotland, independence vote not needed: Jiang

…So, according to Taiwan’s premier, Jiang, Taiwan doesn’t need to declare independence from China because Taiwan is already independent? Didn’t Washington favor the KMT since 1996 and will again in 2016 because the KMT doesn’t want to declare Taiwan as independent, because Beijing has threatened open was if Taiwan did so, and isn’t Jiang doing so? This is competence in Taiwan-China-US politics at its best.

Remember, the “we’ve already done that” response is a tactic often used by failing politicians and business managers when they feel threatened by change.

Comment from last week:

It was the British colonial government who denied Hong Kong people democracy for 156 years and it was the Beijing Government who started the democratic movement in HK in 1997 and if the proposed democratic reform is passed, Hong Kong will have universal suffrage public election.

…The first part is correct. The second part… only if “universal” suffrage means “not universal”. The universe includes people who are not buddy-buddy with Beijing, but Beijing’s definition of “universal suffrage” does not include those people. Perhaps this commenter share’s Beijing’s unique definition of the “universe”.

In Beijing’s defense, free and open elections can lead to drama-rama, like seen in US politics. But grapping for the power to hand-pick candidates would only enrage Hong Kongers; something else that Beijing didn’t seem to understand. If Beijing dropped their superstition, that world peace can only happen through world government, they might know what would make both Hong Kong and Beijing happy. But when you think you own the world, it’s hard to imagine how others perceive you.

Then again, Washington has the same narcissism, thinking they can comment about the elections in another country, speaking in support of a political party despised for scandals and corruption, and do so without any backlash.

Hong Kong did, in fact, find freedom, prosperity, and more open thinking when they left Britain. The American colonies had the same experience 238 years ago. Scotland voted on whether to have the same experience last week. And Taiwan found the same prosperity 65 years ago when they left China.


India, China vow cooperation as troops face off

Man on US terror suspect list deported

…Taiwan is getting smarter about who is good and bad in their country.

Taiwan’s Ongoing Oil Scandal

Lawmakers attack Cabinet over food oil scandal

Vendors risk fines if tainted lard oil items on shelves

Oil scandal causes NT$5 bil. loss: Duh

…And the KMT-controlled ministry will offer bail-outs to those involved in the scandal (many KMT cronies). Once again, “the establishment v the people”.

Whistleblower threatened by ‘men in black’

…Could the same ‘men in black’ have pushed Oliver Chen off the cliff? The KMT Nationalist party is the biggest loser, both from the Sunflower Movement and from the food oil scandal.

MOFA may brief envoys on oil measures

Oversight of food to be tightened up

Cabinet aims to hike whistleblower bonus

Hong Kong

Typhoon shuts down Hong Kong with strong winds, rain

…Weather affects politics.

Occupy takes seed of an idea from sunflower movement

…To set up their own security.

Student boycott – who cares? Arthur Li fires another salvo at Occupy Central movement

…More from this professor of last week.

Fake Occupy Central app targets activists’ smartphones with spyware

DPP Party Blog: Articles illustrating DPP courting the US on China policy

Chair Tsai Ing-wen receives AIT Director Christopher Marut

Taiwan Must Contribute to Regional Peace and Security

DPP Representative Affirms U.S. Support for Taiwan’s Democracy

DPP Washington D.C. representative confident in strength of US-Taiwan relations

DPP’s thinktank announces Defense Policy Blue Paper

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