Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 3, 2020

If ever there were a time when two nations didn’t want to get along, it is now. If ever there were a time when a growing group of nations decided that a single other nation never wanted to get along, it is now.

China’s security law affecting Hong Kong, defining what is a crime in every sovereign, non-China territory of the world—in a word “pretentious”. No nation’s government should ever allow a foreign government to define what is a crime within its own borders, especially a single government acting unilaterally and without counsel.

Human Rights involve laws that China directly agreed to in joining the United Nations. Human Rights sanctions over forced sterilization among Uighurs in Xinjiang in no way compare to Beijing dictating it is a crime for someone in New Zealand to voice support for free elections in Hong Kong. The Confucian-Communist Chinese don’t see the difference. They view sterilizing Uighurs as fair and international sanctions for doing so as unfair. It’s not a lie or polite statement—they really see things that way.

So, banning TikTok won’t give the Chinese any second thoughts about their aspirations and actions. Taiwan’s first democratically elected president passed away this week at 97 and the US lauded his achievement. China won’t see any need to change so as to cooperate with our democratic world today; they will only see it as an insult to China’s entitlement to greatness.

The Taiwanese chip maker TSMC provides 20% of the worlds microchips at quality of which China cannot produce any. If China invaded Taiwan and TSMC had to cease operations, China would suppose that the ability to make these chips would instantly transfer to China, where China could pick up the slack, so there would be no threat to the global tech industry.

Now, the US introduces a bill with bipartisan support for military action already approved for the US to defend Taiwan against China specifically. It’s not hard to know how China will respond. With every step, China has the same response: China’s right; the rest of the world is wrong. It’s not hard to know how the rest of the world interprets that kind of response.

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Encore of Revival: America, August 3, 2020

The montages and excerpts won’t sway a single vote. Congressman Jordan’s six minute video mainly shows footage of just a few groups mobbing police with limited looting. This doesn’t contradict the narrative on the Left that activists don’t primarily loot, but strongly oppose police in particular. Both Right and Left voters think the video justifies their own position. Not one opinion changed.

People are generally fed up with police having an elitist attitude. Trump supporters don’t think Trump needs to act for police to get what they beg for, the mobs on the Left are doing a good enough job. There won’t be any changed votes over police and protests.

Experts and analysts are starting to predict a possible Trump victory because Trump identifies with the main backbone of swing States. In other words, some people think the energizing incumbent who kept campaign promises might win against a boring opponent. The technical polling research term for that is, “Dah!”

The interesting factor in all this analysis is that Trump supporters don’t seem swayed at all by the media. Rich Thau finds that his Obama-Trump focus groups mainly watch local news. And, that explains everything.

The media can’t take away what the media did not give. Sentiment for Trump never came from any single speech or opinion. It came from results. People were tired of jobs moving overseas while the so-called spirit of free trade served as little more than an excuse to fatten China into the otherwise unnecessary threat we have today. Now, people are glad jobs are back and someone is actually telling China to behave. People were tired of a Washington culture that talks nice and polite while steamrolling the obvious will of the electorate. People hated bad results before and liked the good results in the last three and a half years. It was the results, not opinion-slanted news from any side, that shaped pro-Trump opinion.

The concept that reporting doesn’t decide public opinion is a concept that the reporting establishment can’t grasp. All the polls that falsely predict every Republican incumbent’s magical defeat can’t change people who don’t even watch, no matter how much those polls think they can.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 27, 2020

Bail on Hong Kong, jump to Taiwan. That’s the move from everyone.

Britain doesn’t bail on Hong Kong, but creates a path for Hong Kongers to bail on Hong Kong. Britain isn’t just walking away. By allowing British Overseas Passport holders to easily enter Britain, British Parliament responds as if 3 million British citizens and their families are suddenly in China—basically treating Hong Kong as if it is truly, fully Chinese. Britain ended its extradition with Hong Kong, making it the same as with China. Britain extended an arms embargo to Hong Kong already in place against China.

This is the part that confuses the Chinese. They want the world to recognize that Hong Kong is China, but when countries treat Hong Kong the same way as they treat China, China objects. Consider the mindset that demands: Everyone treat Hong Kong like China, but you interfere if you treat Hong Kong like China. The Chinese don’t understand how the world is responding. They never thought the world would respond this way. They think the world is simply being mean and cruel.

Staying consistent is not a part of the Chinese Communist worldview. Consulates do passport services and diplomatic visits, not much beyond that. That’s why countries allow them. America says China went way beyond that, claiming evidence of the consulate running a spy ring. Truth or lie, the Chinese thought they could do anything inside their consulate as if they were in Beijing, otherwise they wouldn’t need to burn documents before leaving. They don’t see America following consistent rules by demanding the consulate close; they only see America as starting a fight.

Western nations at least pretend to operate with universal standards and kept promises. They are far from perfect, but at least they pretend to and their voters expect them to. China doesn’t even pretend to operate with universal standards and kept promises. Chinese Communists simply do whatever they decide for each, individual situation, then justify it as either “their right to do what they want” or as “an internal matter” or as “what is best”. If China makes a promise, then decides to break it without any notice, then the people they promised object, China calls that objection “interference”. Following precedent or promises has no place in Chinese understanding of lawfulness.

Now, ask yourself about a government that insists that it is fair to change the rules throughout the game and without notice. What will mid-level leaders within that government do themselves and expect from their leaders above them and from their subordinates below them? Will their military be able to function with a culture where it is right to change rules at any time? Will ship captains prefer battles for the glory over winning the war? Will the West think such a military is a formidable threat or that such a military is inconsistent and easily defeated?

Taiwan certainly sees the Chinese military as a threat, but the Taiwanese apparently believe China’s military can be affronted. Taiwan boosts its own military budget while the US only increases ties. Banks are also looking to Taiwan as the Asian alternative to Hong Kong, which banks are losing interest in since it now appears to be truly, fully Chinese. With so many people running to Taiwan—and taking their money with them—Taiwan won’t lack the budget for defense.

So, ask yourself, with the shift moving to Taiwan, what will the rule-changing Chinese do? And, will China’s rule-changing embolden the West to think that China’s military won’t be very organized?

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Encore of Revival: America, July 27, 2020

It takes two to fight. There are two Americas and half of each are choosing to fight.

As early as 2015, more than a few Obama supporters claimed that Trump spoke as did Hitler. He did not, neither in 2015 nor through 2019. But now, Trump does speak so—with the gentle, understanding, compassionate appeal to sense and patience before the bold and courageous grab. That was Hitler and FDR. And, that doesn’t prove anything. Perhaps we should say Hitler spoke as Trump, or both as FDR, because this way of speaking is necessary in troubled times, whether a leader be bad or good. Just because Hitler did a good thing to look good does not mean the good thing is not good.

But, if there were any alarm, it is ignored because of the fake alarms set off by loud radicals on the far Left, possibly about half.

Those radicals do not consider consequence. “Solving” a problem the wrong way will only make the problem worse, then deter others from attempting to solve that problem in the future. They don’t know. Ignoring laws to get a kind of so-called lawless “justice” will only breed more injustices. They don’t notice. Voting ourselves money from the taxpayer treasury bankrupts government, and government bankruptcy always leads to tyranny. They forget. Congressman Louie Gohmert cites history and notes that banning all overt racist monuments and institutions would mean banning the Democratic Party itself. They were never told. A false alarm will cause people to ignore real alarms. They never cared. If there ever were a time for alarm, it is now every bit as much as abuse has drowned out the alarms.

Qualified immunity of the police has been abused and must be reformed—it will be, there is no question of whether, only how. Either it will be abandoned, reformed, or riots will excuse martial law. But, police will not enjoy the protections they abused—and so-called “good” police will not enjoy the protections they  allowed other police to abuse. Even the good cops let the corruption linger and fester. Change in police is inevitable, one way or another. The preferred solution to our police problem is the State-trained militia, but that requires people to think on their own.

Still, many defend police qualified immunity. If federal, state, and county governments were to increase accountability for police to qualify for immunity, there would be fewer riots and most police wouldn’t want to quit their jobs. But, if there is no qualified immunity reform through the legislative process, we will go down the road of riots and martial law.

As bad as martial law is, and as much as Trump made the final decision, no one supported martial law as much as those who justified it by creating the need—lawless, policeless idealists on the Left, possibly about half. As much as dissent against police threatens the peace, no one supported anti-police movements as much as good police who didn’t rise up to confront corruption among their coworkers. Each side of America’s divide creates excuses for the other. It seems like conspiracy, but we can’t be sure yet.

We will know whether there is a Trump conspiracy by whether Trump loses the general election. If he does, he can dispute it, thus enraging the lawless on the far Left to rationalize even more martial law. A simple, straight election victory would not be so inflammatory and would indicate Trump has no takeover conspiracy. Having kept campaign promises and being the incumbent, Trump must win; it is historical gravity. If he lost, it would have been on purpose.

No one helped Trump get elected as much as Obama. No one helped Obama get elected much as Bush Jr.—and Bush Jr., Clinton—and Clinton, Bush Sr. On it goes as America divides and fights with itself. Both sides are responsible, fars on Right and Left—those who don’t think for themselves, possibly about half each. Some are learning to think, whether Left or Right; they are not the problem, possibly about half each.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 20, 2020

Hong Kong is seriously considering shutting itself down. Many may argue that Hong Kong is certainly shutting down, but a basic understanding of humanity says that people are resilient. China claims that doing whatever China wants inside Hong Kong is good, right, and fair, regardless of the promise not to do so until 2047. Democracies and countries with free speech have always risen up with with unstoppable strength to resist powers claiming their right to control them from outside, as China is doing.

France insulted King Henry V of England, according to legend with three tennis balls instead of promised tribute. Henry invaded and conquered. At that time, the French were spoiled and foolish; their military was no match for England because it was not disciplined.

Scotland revolted against King Edward I and won independence. At that time, the Scottish were selfless and willing to burn their own corn fields and even die; Scotland fought from desperation to not be oppressed while England’s disposition of entitlement was no match.

China claims that Hong Kongers are spoiled like the French were under Henry V. Hong Kongers claim they are desperate to escape oppression like the Scottish under Robert the Bruce. Who is right? The next few years will answer that question. But, it could go either way. Nothing is decided.

At this time, however, China is doing certain things, then Hong Kong is responding a certain way while other countries in the world respond in their ways. China believes everyone else is wrong.

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Encore of Revival: America, July 20, 2020

America is facing a crisis. Powerful forces with big money pull the strings. Had they pulled the strings differently, the world might not be in the situation it is in. Look at the Gates Foundation funding of the World Health Organization. What kind of sway was squandered in that influence?

While an epidemic that seemed to be passing resurges, Democratic voters turn to government guidelines while Republican voters turn to the Republican party. People are distracted with solving the current crisis, in a strong struggle over how.

Meanwhile in Washington, Senator Biden toys with the idea of removing the Senate rule allowing the filibuster—that would require only 51 Senate votes for most laws to pass instead of 60. With Americans—from both sides of the political schism—turning to government to solve today’s problems, a powerful Senate could become the most dangerous tool in the world.

As for Trump’s re-election, we see a massive push from Left-leaning media to paint the election as a Republican failure. Their arguments are based on what is right and reasonable from a Left wing view. But, whether correct or a matter of opinion, elections aren’t determined by what is right or wrong or reasonable; elections are determined by the popular vote. Right now, right or wrong, reported or ignored, Trump supporters are the majority.

We can’t trust surveys to say otherwise because those surveys always forecast Republican failure around this time in every election year. No Republican victory was ever reported as anything other than a surprise by the media, not even Fox News in 2016. So, if a Republican victory looks like it would be a surprise, historically speaking, that only makes it all the more likely.

Biden’s campaign is based on encouragement through difficult times and incompetence of the current president. His ads are long. Without difficult times or incompetence of the incumbent, Biden has no message. His appeals are akin to Jimmy Carter’s in the election he lost.

Trump’s campaign is built on his own competence, campaign promises he kept through laws, orders, and appointments, and resolve to continue pushing. His ads are short and sometimes censored on the internet.

The difference in the two campaigns, by itself, is enough to determine the outcome. As for the Democratic view that Trump was incompetent with the pneumoniavirus outbreak, Trump supporters blame Democratic politicians, Bill Gates, and China. They fear as much as Democratic voters, and they have their reason to keep their Republican vote unchanged. The epidemic doesn’t change votes, it only increases how adamant voters are on not changing their votes.

Unlike Republican voters, Democrat voters know the issues to address, but they don’t know how things happen in the world. So, the inevitable Trump victory in November will surprise them. Then, they will go into rage and possible riots. The Senate could grab for power as could China.

In tough times, people awaken. These are tough times. We will get through them. But, it won’t be smooth sailing.

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