China is being overwhelmed—Huawei to the west, British probes to the south, Kim to the north, but the prospect of trade to the east. The weakness is in the Chinese-cultural paradigm of negotiation. Chinese culture wants to sign a contract first, then negotiate the terms after. That’s a polite way of explaining “psychopathic negotiation”.
China labels Hong Kong as an “internal”, national security matter. It’s not; it’s a “joint” matter. According to the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration, China can’t govern Hong Kong as its own until 2047—a mandate for Hong Kong being under Beijing’s leadership. By telling Britain to “face reality”, London will see the reality as Beijing reneging on the deal. It’s not that China wants to be malicious, but that China doesn’t understand what a promise really entails.
That could be why the Chinese offer such sweeping concessions to get better trade with America. They might not understand that promises about those concessions will actually have to be kept. But, there’s more that sails over Beijing’s brightest heads.
America shows no indication of backing down on Taiwan. By cozying up on trade, Beijing probably hopes America will receive an indirect message about Taiwan. But, if Taiwan isn’t discussed, then it’s not part of the trade agreement—or any agreement with the US. Beijing, probably laden with more wishful thinking than savvy, won’t understand. They just won’t understand.
That’s the Korean problem to the north. Trump knew exactly what he was doing by telling Kim exactly what “de-nuking” looked like. They had talked before. Kim had taken a three day journey to talk again. Now Kim knows reality: a free economy prospers, North with nukes has neither in the end. That won’t go over well with a culture more prideful than the Chinese. Trump knows this.
Now, Kim is a loose canon to China’s north and the only thing Trump did was unleash the obvious. We’ll see how long it takes for China to understand, if ever.
Korea
Exclusive: With a piece of paper, Trump called on Kim to hand over nuclear weapons | Yahoo – Reuters
EXCLUSIVE: The document Trump gave to Kim in Hanoi | Yahoo – Reuters
Taiwan
Taiwan condemns Beijing after Chinese jets cross maritime line | Yahoo – Reuters
US senators initiate bill to cement ties | Taipei Times
Trump’s Sale of F-16 Jets to Taiwan Is Making China Nervous | Bloomberg
China changing ‘status quo,’ Tsai says | Taipei Times
Vice president not running with Tsai | Taipei Times
DPP needs fair, open, ‘paradigm-setting’ primary: Lai | Taipei Times
Hong Kong
UK Six Monthly Report on Hong Kong July – December 2018 | Scribd
Hong Kong Scales Back Extradition Law That Spooked Business | Bloomberg
Human rights in Hong Kong ‘deteriorating severely’: Amnesty | Straits Times
China criticizes British report on HK freedoms | Taipei Times
China
China makes unprecedented offers to US on tech transfer, trade | CNBC
US official: UK report confirms warnings of Huawei risks | AP
Jacinda Ardern to China: New Zealand and China meet at critical point | CNN
China’s Global Construction Boom Puts Spotlight On Questionable Labor Practices | NPR
Military
F-35 won’t save NATO’s air forces from Putin’s ‘formidable beasts’ | Business Insider