Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 22, 2021

Now, China is being demanded answers about an athlete who went missing after accusing a Communist Party big wig of sexual harassment. The UN wants to know her whereabouts.

It won’t matter how China responds. If the Confucian Communists running China give the UN a satisfactory answer, then CCP would have just given in to international demands. That’s not something that the Chinese’s cocktail of crazy would do under normal circumstances. If China does actually give a satisfactory answer, it will build a mentally-destabilizing resentment deep within China’s leadership.

Either way, China feels backed into a corner.

Then, Taiwan flaunts ever-growing stronger ties with the States. Newly upgraded F-16s were commissioned this week, and both governments keep calling for more relations. That’s not out of the question because Taiwan just opened its office in Lithuania, an office named for “Taiwan” instead of the usual “Taipei”.

So, during all the great friendship happening between Taiwan and the rest of the world, not only is China uninvited; China is given a summons by the UN begging questions of sexual harassment and possibly murder.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 15, 2021

Taiwan is a peaceful island of peaceful people. The Taiwanese calm demeanor often plays tricks on the minds of Americans and Chinese. Every day, Taiwanese put up with enormous nonsense and harassment, yet manage to carry on with an authentic smile. They don’t just putt-putt forward, they charge forward with energy, even in the face of disquieting conflict. Their solution to conflict is to “ignore” it away; and that is the Taiwanese daily story.

And, that should put fear into any enemy with half a brain.

When roused to anger, the Taiwanese are more fierce and more dangerous than Americans. That is admittedly a large claim, but the world is about to witness. Their strength and willingness to fight can be seen in schoolyard spats. The calm, carry-on manners are enforced only by a monstrous willpower. Once peace is rejected by an opponent, that same great monster that held near impossible peace rages to war. That someone has the stamina to maintain peace so long should terrify anyone with half a brain.

But, it doesn’t even phase the Chinese. There’s your investment clue.

Nonetheless, Silicon Valley continues to seek investment in China, despite unified opposition from the two most controversial Republican and Democratic presidents ever, Trump then Biden. Even the US Chamber of Commerce lobbies for American companies to invest more money into China, according to Wall Street Journal.

It seems as the US brings manufacturing back home, China offers more candy to hypnotize the children of the Valley. Without any parents around it seems like it would work, were it not for Uncle Sam.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 8, 2021

China tripped the alarm. Revelations of a US aircraft carrier -shaped target in China’s Taklamakan Desert doesn’t exactly resemble a friendly trick-or-treat visit. Congress is upset, calling this the closest we’ve ever been. Washington tries to use calm rhetoric, saying they don’t foresee problems until 2024—it used to be 2025. But these days, they leave more and more room to avoid being wrong should a scuffle go ballistic in the Pacific.

The tech industry certainly is paying attention. Intel is building at five sites, three in the US, one in Ireland, and one in Israel. At the same time, the US government is questioning chip makers about their supply chains. One of those is TSMC, in Taiwan. Now, Congress wants to spend $52B on subsidies for chip makers inside the US. The message is clear: America is getting ready for a China-initiated disruption in the chip supply chain, the largest part in the world of which goes through Taiwan.

By the look of it, 2025 is the year when China will both be militarily dangerous and, for the chip industry, will no longer matter. While some news outlets cast China’s economy in a positive light, others show deep reasoning to sound the economic alarms. It looks like China is getting into a tighter and tighter pinch, and China’s economic response is the same as its response to political disfavor: marketing.

This week, the EU says it has unanimous support to strengthen relations with Taiwan—specifically because of China’s aggression.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 1, 2021

China has been told, then told again. This week, China was told again again again. The EU gave a blistering rebuke to China’s unsolicited three cents about what other governments call their offices. Specifically, Taiwan is labeling it’s representative office in Lithuania as “Taiwan”. China recalled and expelled diplomats with Lithuania in wake of the matter.

Moves like this show the disturbing psychology guiding the Chinese. Reducing communication does not improve China’s position; it diminishes China’s position. So, why would China do that for anything other than histrionic reasons? The recall of its office in Lithuania resembles Napoleon storming out of his own cabinet meeting just before he fell from power. Moreover, analysis such as this does not cause the Chinese mind to reconsider; the Chinese see the warnings as conjured propaganda without substance.

As if the EU’s response over Lithuania wasn’t enough, US Secretary of State Blinken told Chinese Foreign Minister Wang where the bear crapped in the buckwheat. China’s been aggressive; that’s bad. Single-sided—AKA “unilateral”—action to alter the status quo with Taiwan—AKA “invasion”—is unacceptable. The US will intervene. This may be news to the ears of those in China’s echo chamber where selective listening is the norm. Yes, China may be unaware that the US plans to respond if China invaded Taiwan, even after all that has happened. China’s frame of mind could come partly from three decades of countries letting China push them around. But all of a sudden, a fresh wind blew through the G-20.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 25, 2021

Taiwan was thrust into a position without being asked. In 1971, the United Nations removed the Taipei-seated government known today as “Taiwan” and switched to recognizing the Beijing-based government known as “China”. The Taiwanese were elbowed out of the global forum. Now, the US is working to bring Taiwan back in, but not the same way as in 1971. If the trend continues, China and Taiwan would both have a place in the General Assembly, though no government would admit that outcome quite yet.

At the same time Washington swoons the world and Taiwan toward each other, we hear the old fashioned, non-Trump, typical vibrato from the Biden administration. Biden’s own China ambassador nominees says China can’t be trusted. That kind of diplomacy is rooted in neither Trump’s success-at-any-cost focused strategy nor the moderate go-along-to-get-along mantra. Washington Democrats have read the polls and calculated that hating on China is popular with the electorate. This administration will blame and shame China more than Trump. Expect a WWI style war reparations ending to the coming scuffle, not the rebuilding WWII effort MacArthur did in conquered Japan.

Afghanistan’s failure is a false signal to China, but the Beijing echo chamber sees it as a true sign the US is weak. They don’t get it. America wanted out of Afghanistan. And, Americans won’t want post-Afghanistan disaster to hit Taiwan. China is an election campaign whipping boy, but can’t figure out that because China doesn’t know what an election really is.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 18, 2021

According to Chinese and US claims, China has a high-orbit, hypersonic missile that can hit a target within 24 miles. And, that’s why China is the new boss of the world and everyone else should hate America. The end.

But, that’s not the end in the mind of Taiwan or the US Pentagon. This week, Taiwan asked the Pentagon to speed up its delivery of 22 F-16s. They were expected around 2029, but Taiwan claims China could invade by 2025. China may not agree to wait until 2025, especially since the new Communist hypersonic missile has been tested and even written about in the Global Times. All we need is a Global Times article to announce that China is strong enough to invade Taiwan at anytime, then the People’s Liberation Army would be fully prepared to show Confucian Communist love to the whole world.

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