Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 30, 2019

We are headed toward a massive inquisition of police. It could be known as the “Hong Kong Trials”, where each police officer who served since June is combed over and evaluated for every step taken at every single protest, then tried under international law. It’s not immediately around the corner, but the current powers governing Hong Kong are doing everything they can to make that day inevitable.

Over the holidays, neither protestors nor police took a break, except for a brief moment on Christmas at midnight, when protestors were the adults in the room to pause for a moment in honor of something greater. Many had Christmas dinner away from their families, largely due to East Asian culture’s dogma toward older family members. Authoritarianism generally drives away people who are self-motivated and take initiative, family being a least exception. Older generations in Hong Kong don’t understand that. Neither does Beijing. This Christmas, many middle aged and elderly parents faced the question posed by empty seats at many a dinner table: Do you love your children more than your desire for compliance? To some extent, families will be reconciled in due course; parents who refuse will lose even more.

Taiwan had its own drama over the holidays. An accused Chinese mole, formerly in Taiwan’s military, is being hung out to dry for purportedly recruiting more moles. Former president Ma is accusing the Control Yuan of interfering by questioning the judge who let him off scot-free. That stands to reason since the Control Yuan was effectively shut down during his tenure, which, unbeknownst to most, gave even greater rise the Sunflower Movement of 2014. As if Taiwan hadn’t its fill of holiday joy, US Congress is now working on a bill that will formalize the US envoy to Taiwan as a full ambassador—requiring presidential appointment and Senate approval. That is about as close to recognizing Taiwan as a country without recognizing Taiwan as a country as a country can get. China won’t be happy, but the Taiwanese sure thought it was a very Merry Christmas!

Great Pacific

US-China trade war boosts office rents in Taiwan as companies come home // CNBC

China

Trump says US and China to hold signing ceremony for phase-one trade deal // Markets Insider

‘This is not rule of law’: detention of Huawei workers sparks backlash // Guardian

Taiwan

Major China spy case!
Ex-commander allegedly enlisted ‘moles’ for China // Taipei Times

Old turf wars
Ma accuses Control Yuan’s Chen of interfering with the judicial system // Taipei Times

US bill seeks to recognize AIT head as ambassador // Taipei Times

Hong Kong

Hong Kong protests: pepper spray fired during ‘shopping’ rally near border with mainland China // SCMP

Video: Hong Kong police accidentally apprehend undercover officers during Boxing Day mall protest // HKFP

‘We’re all family now’: Protesters gather for free Christmas dinner in Hong Kong // Yahoo News

Hong Kong protests: Christmas Eve rallies lead to clashes // BBC News

Police gun drawn as Hong Kong rally for China’s Uygurs descends into chaos // SCMP

Hong Kong marks Christmas Eve with tear gas on streets and protest chaos in malls // SCMP

Fewer Hongkongers out for last-minute shopping on Christmas Eve, with uncertainty over protests // SCMP

Nothing will stand in China’s way, foreign minister assures the nation // SCMP

Hong Kong marks Christmas Eve with return to tear gas on streets and mall chaos as protesters and police clash in Tsim Sha Tsui // SCMP

Precisely!
To win over Hong Kong and Taiwan, Xi’s China must break a 2,000-year tradition // SCMP

Hong Kong braces for protests over Christmas holidays // Yahoo News