Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 2, 2020

China, China, China. What is the world to think? As a condition of formalizing relations between the United States and Communist-controlled China, US law mandated weapons sales to Taiwan. Now, China is angry that the US upheld this law. Would they prefer the US to break the agreement and shift formal relations back to Taiwan?

In response to the required weapons sales, China sanctioned Boeing’s weapons sector, which China buys nothing from. The sanctions did not cover the sector of Boeing where China buys the planes that its Confucian-Communist-oppressed culture does not know how to build. Now, Beijing argues that military planes must fly through Taiwan-controlled airspace and over the island of Taiwan. And, if Taiwan were to fire upon these planes, it would mean war. Do the Chinese believe that the world believes that?

If two countries have a territory dispute, but are not engaged in an armed conflict, then one side of the dispute sends military equipment and personnel into territory controlled by the other side of the dispute, the rest of the world will see the invader as the perpetrator and villain of any armed contest that ensues. If China doesn’t back off, the world will blame China. This is not an opinion or preference; it is a fact of the future based on history, but Confucian-Communists can’t see the difference between history, opinion, and propaganda. And, that makes anticipating the future nearly impossible for them. China will be shocked by what was obvious to everyone else. It has always been that way.

China is not only fighting Taiwan nor only India nor only Japan. China is fighting the world. And, China doesn’t know China can’t win against the world. These are dangerous times. That’s the one thing everyone knows.

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