Prelude to Conflict: Asia, February 16

Propaganda turn of the tide. For years, Chinese have attended international circles, promulgated their talking points, and convinced others to unwittingly do the same. But, recent reports explain that having traffic lights and convincing drivers to stop at them are two different things.

China’s military has some technology, flaunts technology it does and doesn’t have, but lacks the first-world culture necessary to support its technology. The US has better technology, conceals the technology, “reveals” technology it wants China to know about, and certainly has the organized culture to make its technology work.

This week, China prepares to celebrate the Chinese New Year, which commemorates the creation of the KMT-Nationalist-controlled Chinese government 104 years ago, which is not the government founded by the Communist Party, but the government of Taiwan. Taiwan celebrates the same New Year that Beijing still recognizes, though China has not been reported to give homage to the 104 year old government that has been in exile since 1949.

Taiwan’s politics are gearing up with DPP opposition party chair, Tsai Ing-wen, officially throwing herself into the presidential race. This is the type of development China tends to react to, especially since Beijing’s friends are in the KMT-Nationalist party. It’s clear that Beijing can’t conquer Taiwan politically.

Hong Kong’s Umbrella Movement is scheduled to make more international headlines, this time in Geneva. The movement’s leaders were invited to attend an international summit set for February 24. International awareness was always the Umbrella Movement’s hope and strength. On that front, the movement takes victory after victory, especially with China thinking that it matters enough to say that it doesn’t matter.

China’s Military

U.S. Pause of Mil-to-Mil Exchanges Threatens Maritime Cooperation

…One of the biggest military US-China developments.

The Sky Isn’t Falling Over Taiwan

China’s military not ready ‘to fight and win future wars,’ new report says

Report: China’s Incomplete Transformation

…Thorough analysis.

Taiwan

Political winds change in Taiwan…

Tsai Ing-wen declares candidacy

…Already running for Presidency, Taiwan 2016, DPP opposition party

Likely KMT presidential contenders remain unclear