Prelude to Conflict: Asia, January 26

US Congress questions HK: Beijing vets HK politicians; is HK not China? “Experts” say Washington appeases Beijing, but the big issue: Don’t pee in the international pool, consider HK’s Hague membership. Washington and Beijing have only found excuses to raise Pacific tensions, including China’s nine-dash line and Kerry’s extradition request of espionage witness, Snowden. Appeasing Beijing would mean Congress not raising the HK question at all.

It was wise to release HK Umbrella Movement leaders without pressing charges (yet). Even wiser would be if Beijing made one change years ago: Rather than vetting HK politicians before elections, vet HK policy after—free elections, but anti-Beijing policy would automatically impeach a HK CEO. That would have given Beijing the power they want (and arguably deserve since China provides HK’s military) and given HK residents what they want without asking.

Beijing can no longer hope Taiwan would accept so-called “Beijing democracy” after rejecting the HK Umbrella Movement. Whether that was Jimmy Lai’s goal, it was his achievement: He convinced Beijing to pee in the international pool and sold a lot of newspapers in the process. Now, military is Beijing’s only hope for taking Taiwan and the world is watching.

Beijing isn’t in any position to criticize, especially with the spying cases in Taiwan erupting; they peed in the international diplomacy pool yet again. Beijing miscalculated Taiwan’s ability to discover spies. Taiwan’s extensive prosecution in the case means that Taiwan knew for quite some time and probably knows about others, which means that Beijing’s remaining spies are still being fed false information, which has likely been used to plan Beijing’s strike-first scenario against Taiwan known as A2AD. All battle plans go out the window once the first shot is fired… or once the first spy’s cover is blown. The prospective victory of a Beijing assault get slimmer and slimmer.

Would the US intervene if Taiwan were attacked? Knowing war, Washington’s ambiguity means, “Yes.” But the US made it’s own spying miscalculation and should have at least pretended to praise Snowden and boiled an escape goat like Congress did with Oliver North. That would have made Beijing happy along with HK, the American public, and Angela Merkel.

The fact that the US didn’t consider the Ollie North rout shows how little Washington understands Asia, Europe, and even its own people. The fact that Beijing seeks control of people rather than policy shows how little Beijing understands Western thought in general, as well as people in their own backyard. Where there is misunderstanding, conflict is foreseeable.

But the biggest miscalculations from Washington and Beijing aren’t about the Pacific or spying, but that, if Pacific conflict arises, the masses in both disgruntled countries would seize the opportunity for civil unrest… since that seems to be the international trend these days. The Taiwanese conquered the Washington-Beijing political timeshare puppets in April, then again in November. Taiwan’s defense infrastructure is far more extensive than Beijing’s or Washington’s riot response measures. The PLA wouldn’t stand a chance in Taiwan and everyone knows it, which is why Beijing has so many rockets and Washington pretends to be so ambivalent. Everyone would do better to follow Taiwan’s example and fortify their own homes.

Taiwan is going through changes. Beijing’s spineless KMT-Nationalist Party puppets in Taiwan are as unpopular in Taiwan as Beijing is in the world. Not even Taiwan’s President can chair his own political party. The new Chair, one of the few mayors remaining, is rehashing a question that shouldn’t be asked: Are the KMT-Nationalist Party assets ill-gotten? …reminiscent of Tom White and the ENRON hearings. While there is no explanation as to why KMT assets weren’t liquidated as promised in 2005, the party likely hopes the asset question will be settled once and for all. But the real answer is, “Political parties don’t own assets in the first place.”

Chinese media propaganda is evermore comparable to North Korea’s. Washington meeting with Xi Jinping is comparable to Europe meeting with Hitler before WWII. If either Beijing or Washington wanted to lower tensions, they would both ask, “Why is Taiwan’s KMT-Nationalist Party the richest political party in the world?” But frienemies don’t ask questions of the puppet they are fighting over.

The US exercises some self-restraint, not because they think they answer to Beijing, but because they know they answer to the world. The Chinese won’t rise to lead the world until they learn that they answer to it. Unfortunately, those with much to learn often try things they shouldn’t.

China

More blockades by China to follow, say experts

…“Security experts believe China is pushing the region to the ‘brink of miscalculations’”

China says its drones superior to US in every aspect

…then why haven’t their tech brands caught up?…

China argues it’s not really world’s largest economy

President Xi’s Chinese dream means a more multi-polar world

Eric Chu inaugurated as KMT chairman

Eric Chu opens KMT assets probe

KMT is again ‘world’s richest party’

…“The party was described as ‘KMT Inc’ by the Far Eastern Economic Review in 1994.”

The Spies Are Coming! The Spies Are Coming to Taiwan!