Prelude to Conflict: Asia, September 1


You know that point… where you’ve been trying to persuade a friend to get smart, think about his actions, and change his ways… and you’ve finally convinced him to open his eyes and he sees his situation… but then he looks at you as if he’s been violated… then he shrinks back into his emotional cave, stops listening, buckles down, and walks away?

We reached that point this week with China.

More importantly, we reached another point with Taiwan: shock and realization.

In China’s defense, the Communists don’t want Hong Kongers to have “buyer’s remorse” similar to what many Americans and Taiwanese feel for their presidents. But, more from Chinese domineering culture than from Communism ideology, Beijing’s solution is to seize control from the people, rather than allowing the people to learn from their consequences of their voting.

Chinese reportedly violated Taiwan’s airspace, then denied it, then moved military vehicles through busy streets of Hong Kong. Taiwan’s military publishes a regular report that contradicts all other rhetoric of Taiwan’s President: China is dangerous. Taiwan’s opposition party also calls for fundamental military reform. Military-related papers, both from the military itself and the DPP opposition party, made a stark contrast against Taiwan politics as usual. All this, in the context of a military coup in Lesotho, whose prime minister has shut down parliament in the shadow of a pending vote of no confidence.

Taiwan says 1. they “regret” the 2017 Beijing vetting of Hong Kong candidates, 2. that a former minister leaking secrets to Beijing is described as a pest, 3. that the leaker has not harmed relations with China, 4. that Taiwan’s relationship with China is strong and healthy, and 5. that Beijing could attack Taiwan at any time. It is as if Taiwan is “dismantling”, like in the movie I [heart] Huckabees, or is entering a self-contradicting state of shock, like the college grad who cried like a child after his dad ran his XBOX games over with the lawn mower.

Airspace Sortie

Chinese Surveillance Aircraft Enter Taiwan’s Airspace

…article from The Diplomat on the overall situation, details, history, and analysis.

US, Chinese officials to meet at Pentagon after jet intercept

…Pre-planned meeting, but incidental timing for information released to the press.

Two Chinese surveillance planes blocked by Taiwan

China dismisses claim it breached Taiwan airspace

Israel in Taiwan

Gaza truce holds as Israel, Hamas both claim victory

Taiwan’s “Leak” Investigation

Ma should apologize over Chang: Tsai

Shelve pact amid Chang case: TSU

Chang a ‘pest’ in cross-strait ties: Ma

Chang questioned as search warrant approved

Ma sees little impact from scandal

…“negative impact” to be specific. Note, the day before, Chang was a “pest” and took 70 minutes at a press conference to discuss the situation and the context of continuing cross straight Taiwan-China relations.

Hong Kong

Rumbling PLA carriers in Hong Kong set minds rolling

…China moves military vehicles inside Hong Kong, right through busy streets.

Police pepper spray Hong Kong activists at electoral reform talk as students plan rally

Occupy Central’s Benny Tai declares ‘era of civil disobedience’ for Hong Kong

…So it begins.

Anti-graft agency raids Jimmy Lai’s HK home

LIVE: Beijing officials explain controversial NPC decision on 2017 reform

China insists on right to choose candidates for HK leadership

China demands it be left alone over Hong Kong

…That China believes it interference with Hong Kong is unacceptable, unless Beijing is the one interfering.

Mixed Messages within Taiwan

Taiwan ‘regrets’ China’s decision on HK leader

Negotiator says relationship with Beijing ‘healthy’

…Directly in contrast, on the same front page on the same day as the following two articles…

Ministry warns of China’s might

…The Taiwan military published a periodical report describing China’s military abilities to attack Taiwan. This comes in stark contrast to the rhetoric and policies of Taiwan’s President, Ma, and Premier, Jiang. Taiwan’s defense ministry is the only ministry not controlled by Taiwan’s Premier. Ma and Jiang’s popularity have been reported to be as low as 11% within the last six months . This story was published on the same front page on the same day as the following article, about a potential military coup in Lesotho after the Prime Minister suspended parliament to during a pending vote of no confidence. It seems that the only group in Taiwan concerned about Taiwan’s security more than the Sunflower Movement is Taiwan’s military. Read between the headlines. If Taiwan’s government intends to tell the public that they operate as a team then they are failing…

Lesotho army disarms police to ‘secure’ nation

Shock and Propoganda

Ukraine Conflict Has Been a Lift for China, Scholars Say

…Economically, sanctions against Russia supposedly help China.

China complains SAT may impose American values on its best students

Thinking about what is ‘Taiwan’

…A wired blogger describes the history of Taiwan and that the idea of “National Unity” between China and Taiwan (such as the ‘one nation, two systems’ policy of the US) is nothing more than Chinese imperialist propoganda. Taiwan is and never was any part of China, neither in culture nor nationality, any more than Hawaii should be claimed by the Japanese.

Special Issue: Japan’s turn to collective defence

…Academicians’ heads are spinning over military changes in Japan. New research begins.

DPP Release 6th defense policy blue paper

…Taiwan’s opposition party also discusses national defense.

Shaolin Temple to Establish Cultural Center in Taiwan

…In the context of regional instability, Taiwan’s ruling KMT party is diligently working to address important issues: a new cultural center.


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