Cadence of Conflict: Asia, February 6, 2017

Zuckerberg, king of messages and speaker of Mandarin, fails to get China’s main message. China doesn’t want Facebook’s mission. Facebook helps people talk to each other and know what’s going on. With all that’s already going on, China sees information as a serious threat to its goals.

JP Morgan manged to get a deeper foot in China, with a license to loan more money. Perhaps they think there is a market for that. It is unclear whether the reason this made headlines was because JP Morgan got a deal in China, because an American company thought it was safe to get a deal in China, or because there wasn’t much else in the news about China.

With Trump dominating the news, China didn’t help sell too many newspapers. China’s primary headlines this week came after the “Rocket Force” tested its relatively new medium-range DF-16 ballistic missile, which replaces older, shorter range DF-11. It carries up to three warheads, weighs up to one ton, and can deliver a nuclear bomb. It can adjust to strike slow-moving targets and to supposedly evade anti-missile systems like the US Patriot system, though the best kept secret about China’s military is that it is inexperienced in combat, let alone has any history in a conflict with the US.

Trump’s administration made it clearer this week: Head to head, China loses. The US isn’t joking. Trump’s staff understand Chinese culture well, specifically how important “face” is. But, it seems that China still doesn’t understand how determined Irish redheads can be, whether they make loud claims in Beijing’s style or not. Experts pipe in that the US and China can both have a win-win, but they also fail to understand that there is no such thing as win-win in old school Far East.

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Encore of Revival: America, February 6, 2017

Trump is going head on against judges. So far, the judges are keeping their power, which is a good precedent. It’s too bad that Senator Feinstein didn’t object to overuse of executive power a few years ago, but her reversal is both welcome and typical of a politician. The resistance will give more power to Trump’s base and he will gain sympathy for his cause. The “see I told you so” speeches and headlines are coming.

Californians are getting serious about seceding from the Union. If California left it would not be abandoning the US, but its sister State, New York. Without Los Angeles and Manhattan, Trump would have had the popular vote as well, even with Hillary keeping her estimated 800k illegal voters. Keeping some things separate has always been a goal of the United States since its founding. Californians should, however, be thankful that they are asking to leave the United States rather than asking to leave Mexico.

Senate Republicans have claimed that they can’t repeal Obamacare because the employee they can fire at any time, the Parliamentarian, says that Obamacare can’t be repealed the same way it was passed. VP Mike Pence can overrule the Parliamentarian without firing him. These are the same Republicans who said that they couldn’t change Obamacare without the presidency and that their fellow Republican, Trump, would never win the presidency. Now that they have what they said they needed that they said they couldn’t get, they say they can’t do what they said they would do if they got it. Whenever Republicans whine about what they can’t do, they always get more power. The best interpretation is that Republicans are hoping to inch toward a 60 vote Supermajority in 2019. Again, the trend is for slowness to stir sympathy to the cause. May Heaven help the United States if any political party ever gets a Supermajority in the Senate while having control of the White House.

The term “unemployment” has as honest of a definition as the lawyer-defined word “natural” on a box of cookies. The media has finally discovered that there are six ways to track “unemployment”, specifically U1-U6. U3 has been used recently and most famously during the Obama years when the claim was that “unemployment was low”, without emphasizing the qualification “U3”. The U3 figure only considers people who were looking for jobs while U6 considers all Americans without a job—a definition more likely associated with “national unemployment”. Congratulations to those in the media who have finally discovered the six degrees of unemployment figures.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 30, 2017

The conflict in the Pacific is turning into a brick wall at the speed of sound. Trump vowed to deny China access to islands that don’t exist on household globes and maps. China is run by a party that has never lost—or won—in its 70 years of existence. Beijing wants Washington to recognize “one China”, but that “China”, regardless of which claimant defines it, is engaged in a publicly-funded military war between two political parties. There are two versions of “China”, officially, and no one knows which version to believe since neither waring party has declared victory in their 70 year war. Given the outstanding ambivalence, Trump may have just declared his own definition of victory for them.

When London meets a spontaneous cloud of smog, the comparison is to China. We all know who Londoners are thinking about and what they are thinking about them. So, while Trump makes headlines in China, China made headlines in London. Just as “election recount” is linked to US Democrats and “unfair press” is linked to US Republicans, four topics link to China in the Western mind: pollution, economics, military, and territory claims.

To compound China’s precarious position, the EU is making demands about a lawyer’s human rights. The lawyer was reportedly tortured. In rare form, the EU is demanding that he be released and the situation investigated. The “tortured lawyer” report comes in the midst of a Chinese crackdown the VPNs Chinese people use to connect to social media banned by Beijing. China can’t maintain battles on so many fronts, not with a new Sheriff in the White House who isn’t afraid to make orders of his own. That deal where the Chinese were going to pour money into Hollywood—it’s had a few wrenches thrown into its gears. It’s funny how the Chinese block media in their own country, then their investment in American media also gets blocked, in a more round-about way, of course.

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Encore of Revival: America, January 30, 2017

Obama supporters have finally decided that overuse of executive orders is a bad thing. Too bad for them that many of Trump’s executive orders merely undo Obama’s executive orders. Trump finally adopted Obama’s policy of Federal intervention where local police fail, though, Obama probably never thought of it happening where it is most needed, such as his own backyard in Chicago.

Trump was elected in response to Obama. Obama’s policies, mostly by mere executive order, not only couldn’t last, they backfired. Anti-Trumpists still have not learned the important lesson of life: good or bad, right or left, whatever you build needs to last. If Trump harms America, Obama supporters have no one to thank but their own president who rolled out the red carpet for Trump as much as Bush rolled out the red carpet for Obama. The cycle only seems to continue with very few people getting wise to what’s going on.

All that “Russia interfered” jazz morphed into Democrats calling for investigations of voter fraud, which is likely to indite both parties. But, we can’t know how much voter fraud there truly was since asking for photo ID at an election isn’t legal, thanks to the same Democrats who are asking for an investigation. That makes no sense, except in Washington.

The elephant in the living room is the golden brick highway paved to today’s crisis. A Hawaiian Congresswoman told CNN that Obama was funding ISIS in Syria? Trump’s “ban” only affects people coming from seven countries that Obama’s DHS and US Congress decided sponsor terrorism—Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Yemen—these countries were not chosen by Trump, but under Obama. Trump’s order only names Syria, based on what Syrian refugees have done in other places they have gone to.

A federal judge made a very small exception to Trump’s sweeping executive oder: people with pre-approved papers who arrived on airplanes won’t be sent back immediately. This action affects very few people and confronts none of Trump’s campaign principles. Affected green card holders will be allowed to leave the US and return, but need to visit a US consular first. Protests against Trump’s orders are mounting. Some saw the judge’s order as victory against Trump’s goals.

A Sheriff in Travis County, Texas has refused to cooperate with the State’s requests, which are mainly aimed at not releasing people who entered the country illegally and are sought by US Immigration after they are arrested and in custody for a local crime. Travis County receives just shy of $2M from the State in law-enforcement grants, but the Sheriff says that she has neither the priority nor the authority to comply with the requests from Federal and State governments to hand over sought-after illegals already in her custody.

As fast as Trump wants to build his wall, he will have difficulty breaking Russia’s record in Berlin. Mexico’s president canceled his meeting with Trump once Trump Tweeted that paying for the wall was a requirement. President Neito told his people that “Mexico must protect its interests”, which, apparently, includes being able to cross into the US at non-border crossings. Building the wall would not change the number of entry points and, if anything, could create more entry points since patrolling the border would be easier. Canceling the meeting won’t change anything. A presidential candidate can skip out on one of an excessive number of televised presidential debates and still win the nomination and the election, but a sitting president can’t skip out on a meeting when his presence has been requested by a nation whom his own citizens are persistently entering illegally when that nation is about to rip up a trade agreement. The meeting with Trump was not going to negotiate whether Mexico will pay for the wall to contain its own people, but how Mexico will pay for the wall to contain its own people. By not attending, Mexico’s president is leaving that decision to President Donald J. Trump—which might have been exactly what Trump wanted in the first place. Now, Mexican Billionaire Carlos Slim wants to step in.

From the Office of the United States Trade Representative:

Mexico is currently our 3rd largest goods trading partner with $531 billion in total (two way) goods trade during 2015. Goods exports totaled $236 billion; goods imports totaled $295 billion. The U.S. goods trade deficit with Mexico was $58 billion in 2015.

The story compares to the rich, old uncle who told his nephew, “No, you’re gonna pay for the repairs to my barn you burned down or you might as well not even ask me to buy you another car.” The kid ran home to his daddy who said, “No, you are gonna’ talk with your uncle about his barn. I’m calling my brother and you’d better be here when I do.” By asking to step in to negotiate between the US and Mexico, Billionaire Carlos Slim has proven in Mexico what Trump proved in the US—people with actual business experience know more about getting things done than politicians. Maybe he wants to run for president in Mexico. Or, maybe he doesn’t want his own business empire to be at the mercy of a much younger president who can’t hold two candles to the adults in the room.

It seems that America isn’t the only country dealing with brats who complain all the time, repeat perfectly what they hear on TV, but can’t put a roof over their own heads. There’s nothing wrong with not having money, as long as you don’t lecture the people who do.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 23, 2017

No one supports the Trump protests as strongly and loudly as China. They object, threaten, parade, demonstrate, opine, taunt, drill, march, and they do so despite response from America’s “riot police”, in the case of the Pacific, the US Navy. China is also getting closer to Hollywood, to the tune of $1B USD in a Paramount deal. China is reportedly dumping money into its stock market. China has a lot in common with just under half of America. Taiwan, siding with just over half, officially congratulated Trump. As of Friday, Trump had 56% popularity when he took oath, not counting China or Taiwan.

Taiwan is making upgrades. Just after Trump was inaugurated, and about the same time Taiwan officially congratulated him and Pence, Taiwan finalized the purchase of a high-tech military communication system that would, among many things, allow Taiwan’s Navy to communicate directly with the US Navy 7th Fleet’s command center.

Taiwan is also making a deal with Uber, to allow Uber-summoned taxis, just after Taiwan hiked it’s “unlicensed” driver fine to almost $800K USD. Taiwan has fined Uber over $2.3M USD and its drivers over $700K USD. With Taiwan’s new “unlicensed” taxi fine, Taiwan could earn all it has earned on Uber drivers in the past with just a single Uber driver offense. Yes, while Uber gave up on butting-heads with China and China doesn’t give up butting heads with Trump, Taiwan is one of those head-butting Uber. All four of them are still butting heads. It’s definitely been a week of the butt-head convention in “the Chinas”. Read More

Encore of Revival: America, January 23, 2017

While everyone runs out to support or protest America’s new president, the best-kept secret of Washington remains the best-kept secret: No politician can be rightly judged on only campaign promises and threats, nor cheers and jeers from the masses. Until Trump has results to judge, any support and protest is a mere theater rating.

If background has any bearing on the future, the 19 months of Trump’s career have shown something unusual for a politician: a consistent message. That consistency has been tested more than any politician before him with constant objection at every turn, and he still has not changed his message, not even at his inauguration. And, the first executive orders he signed also stayed on message. So far, Trump has been consistent.

Trump protesters and supporters have a single, telling difference: Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs. Trump supporters believe the bottom level of needs is in crisis (food, shelter, basic economics, physical safety); Trump protesters believe the middle levels are in crisis (social relations both foreign and domestic, emotional needs, individual identity); both believe it is a crisis that threatens America’s existence.

Before running for office, Trump fired people for not working hard or not correctly experienced for the specific job. His message and methods haven’t changed. Looking at the consistency in Trump, his supporters, and his protesters, the future will not go to arguers or defenders, but to the hard-working, no matter what their politics.

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