Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 26, 2020

The flashpoint of Taiwan has become a pregnant possibility. Reportedly, a US military jet flew across Taiwan, and no one is fully certain over who claimed what and why. Taiwan’s government said something after the US government said something about the mission. Then the US government said that they weren’t saying what the mission was. So, the Taiwan government said that they weren’t saying what the US government wasn’t saying about what the US government said about why what happened happened. And, we’re not even sure what happened because the identifier tags could have been spoofed.

In the end, China fell for the bait as if on cue. The Chinese State-run Global Times then published a story sometimes written in the first-person stating that the US isn’t allowed to fly military operations over Taiwan and that China would send its military planes over Taiwan if the US did. The story went on to speculate that Taiwan didn’t have the unction—more or less—to fire the first shot at a Chinese plane in Taiwan sovereign airspace. That proves what China is really thinking about: pushing and pushing, trying to call Taiwan’s bluff, wondering who will fire the first shot—because China is hoping someone will fire the first shot.

After all the information China gave away about its intentions—after what seemed like a fluke between Washington and Taipei—don’t think for a second that said fluke was not a well-calculated fluke. The bigger takeaway is that China keeps falling for the bait while Washington learns to anticipate China enough to lead the Chinese Communist military right into its own defeat—and China shows the learning curve of a cat chasing a laser dot.

Trade & Tech

China Reconsiders Its Global Strategy for the Yuan // Bloomberg

Italy vetoes 5G deal between Fastweb and China’s Huawei: sources // Yahoo News

U.S.-China tensions could split the internet — and data will play a key role // CNBC


India Captures Chinese Soldier on Disputed Border // YouTube @ China Uncensored

China failing to fill global leadership void left by US // Taiwan News

Analysis: China struggles to fill Trump’s ‘America First’ leadership void // Yahoo News

US designates six more Chinese media firms as foreign missions | China // Guardian

China to Sweden: drop Huawei ban, or face fallout // Yahoo News

Trump or Biden will need support from allies to keep China in check, H.R. McMaster says // CNBC


Whether Trump or Biden wins, US-China relations look set to worsen // Guardian

PLA could send jets over Taiwan to defend sovereignty if US military jets fly over island // Global Times (China Govt)

If US stations troops in Taiwan, China may sever diplomatic ties: Scholar // Taiwan News

Air Force Confirms, Then Retracts Statement That One Of Its RC-135W Spy Planes Flew Over Taiwan // The Drive

China threatens retaliation after new U.S. arms sales to Taiwan // Yahoo News

South China Sea missile drills to blame for Taiwanese plane being turned back at Hong Kong, source says // SCMP

US approves $1.8bn weapons sale to Taiwan // BBC News

Export orders soar on smartphone, 5G demand: MOEA // Taipei Times

UPDATE 2-Taiwan says diplomat sent to hospital after China spat in Fiji // MSN News

Grow up
Taiwan official in hospital after alleged ‘violent attack’ by Chinese diplomats in Fiji // Guardian

Military Faceoff

The A-10 Warthog Is Preparing For Its Biggest Upgrade In Over A Decade // The Drive

After Stealth Jets, US Equips Its Herculean Navy With The ‘Stealthiest Submarine Ever Built’ // EurAsian Times

All Of The Navy’s Arleigh Burke Destroyers Will Get Hypersonic Missiles Top Official Says // The Drive

Watch the Navy’s beleaguered new stealth destroyer finally loose off a missile for the first time // Task & Purpose