Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 18, 2021

According to Chinese and US claims, China has a high-orbit, hypersonic missile that can hit a target within 24 miles. And, that’s why China is the new boss of the world and everyone else should hate America. The end.

But, that’s not the end in the mind of Taiwan or the US Pentagon. This week, Taiwan asked the Pentagon to speed up its delivery of 22 F-16s. They were expected around 2029, but Taiwan claims China could invade by 2025. China may not agree to wait until 2025, especially since the new Communist hypersonic missile has been tested and even written about in the Global Times. All we need is a Global Times article to announce that China is strong enough to invade Taiwan at anytime, then the People’s Liberation Army would be fully prepared to show Confucian Communist love to the whole world.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 11, 2021

Biden is creating a special center within CIA for China. Xi Jinping is irate. Biden knows China almost as well as Trump. He met with Chinese officials as Vice President. While Trump played a “good cop” routine on China, Biden is in a better position to be less diplomatic. After all, hating on China does well in the polls, which Biden desperately needs for Democrats.

The US has been secretly training Taiwan special forces for over a year. The revelation comes from a report, officially recognized by the Pentagon. This all comes in the context of the US reaffirming its dedication to Taiwan.

Is the US trying to deter invasion from China by affirming commitment to stopping China? Or, is the US trying to provoke China by affirming commitment under the guise of deterring invasion from China? Which is it? In geopolitical strategy terms, the answer is: yes. In military buildup, deterring is provocation and provocation is deterrence; but wars are started because people want them to start. Deterrence and provocation are merely measures we take to excuse what we really want.

If the US didn’t want a war with China, then shipping jobs to China would never have been allowed in the first place. But, coupon clippers and Washington big hats agreed on the path that brought us here. And, make no mistake about it: we are here. Now, the world only needs one foreseeable yet somehow unforeseen surprise to spin the accelerating wheel into going out of control.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 4, 2021

This weekend saw yet another step-up in Chinese aggression—over 90 incursions in three days. While the world asks, “WTF!?” Taiwan rallies international support based on its IC chip industry. Taiwan supplies a good portion of the world’s semiconductors. If China invaded Taiwan, that could pretty much shut down the world’s supply of phones and computers. Coming from Taiwan, it’s almost a PR campaign: “We make your tech work; if China hurts us, then China hurts you too.”

This past weekend was a national holiday for Taiwan and China, celebrating the founding of their common government in history. It is not unusual for military saber rattling to step up about this time of year. That doesn’t mean China isn’t a threat. That means China used its easy excuse to make more threats.

The US responded by clearing its throat, reminding the world of its many military assets in the region. The Philippines wants the Mutual Defense Treaty with the US to have stronger language, clarifying just how much protection the US would bring. China thinks it has standing to object to a treaty for which it is not a party. And, China said Taiwan can expect more next year if the “collusion” between Taiwan and the US doesn’t stop. “Collusion”—that’s how China sees things. Perhaps the word “paranoid” has relevance somewhere.

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Encore of Revival: America, October 4, 2021

The US faces economic challenges. We’re about to be done with pandemic inflation—that is inflation wrought to tamp down economic fallout from the pandemic, but arguably a pandemic of inflation in itself. We can’t keep interest rates this low and we can’t keep printing money. Britain has also about had it. The West is due for a change of pace. Enter Taiwan.

China’s incursion of Taiwan’s airspace made Matt Drudge’s top three headlines this weekend. With 93 Chinese military jet incursions in three days, Taiwan says its preparing for war because it must. And, Taiwan rallies allies like Australia with the fact that Taiwan houses one of the largest IC conductor suppliers in the world.

But, consider more than just the Chinese aggression. Consider the Western economic situation.

Chinese aggression and the freedom of Taiwanese sells well to the general public. But, compassion alone does not shape global politics. China is chasing a dream of respect—which isn’t as motivating as Western economies needing a turbocharger. China isn’t just making a miscalculation on its military capacity by winning respect as the world’s bully. China is making the grave error of provoking when the allies of its sworn enemy are hungry. All eyes in the West are about to shift toward a war with China every bit as swift and embarrassing as the Opium Wars.

While China takes center stage, the Supreme Court gears up to review Roe v. Wade and gun owner rights.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 30, 2021

Adversity creates alliance. If China’s goal was to unite the world, it is succeeding. Taiwan and Japan are getting cozier than ever, as are Taiwan and the EU. The shift is happening and maps may need to be redrawn.

The logical outcome is the UK returning all of Hong Kong—including the New Territories—to the British Commonwealth, while Taiwan, Japan, and likely a to-be-united Korea become at least commonwealths of a US-Canada reach. This would be valuable because it places liaison states near each other in the Far East. Britain would have a formal government in Hong Kong. The US and Canada would have nearby governments via Taiwan, Japan, and Korea. So, traveling between the US, Britain, and the rest of Asia could all be done through the Taiwan Strait and South Sea.

From a geo-political planning perspective, it would be well-organized. In light of the PDT Asia Mad Scientist Theorem, we could suspect this is being planned. Based on that, failed control systems in North Korea were not only meant to be implemented in China, but also to eventually annex North Korea under Seoul’s government. When later applied via China’s policy, that would trigger events that later subject all of China under a regional cooperation headed by Western governments from both sides of the Atlantic. In other words, North Korea is a test to oppress, fail, and unite under democracy. That test eventually applies to make China fail, then China would be forced to accept formal friendliness with Britain and the US via Taiwan-Japan-Korea states under the US and a Hong Kong province under Britain. The thought is chilling for Chinese Communists.

But, that’s where things are headed. When China objects to a country talking with Taiwan, no one cares anymore. China’s opinion has been reduced to global insignificance—a living hell for respect-obsessed Chinese leaders. Sending more and more military to places without global agreement, then defending itself with insignificant opinions, tightens the noose. China remains its own worst enemy, not only in military defeat, but also inviting its region of the world to be willfully subjected under Western governments.

It is as if the whole thing is planned, and China keeps dancing on cue.
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Cadence of Conflict: Asia August 16, 2021

Taiwan continues to shine. Aide sent to Haiti after a devastating earthquake combines growing ties with Lithuania. China objects—and those are bad optics that China’s speech-control can’t control outside its borders.

China has been rewriting religion for years. Hymnals already read love for government rather than love for God. Now, we see more investigations against Hong Kong demonstrators who sought to uphold China’s agreement to democracy. In essence, China is investigating itself, indicating that China is divided against itself.

As a representative office exchange between Taiwan and Lithuania moves forward for this Fall, so do Taiwan’s de facto ties with the rest of the EU. China would rather object to this than be supportive of earthquake victims in Haiti. That is the obvious news narrative to take from what happened this week.

What’s not obvious is Taiwan’s prejudice against foreigners. Taiwan is having trouble building its submarines because of a shortage of engineering talent. Taiwan’s solution is to recruit more foreign talent. However, neither the problem nor the need for recruitment would exist if Taiwan had reciprocal regulations concerning immigration: protection of foreigner’s rights, five years leads to full citizenship, and dropping Taiwan’s ban on dual citizenship. To become a Taiwanese citizen, one must renounce original citizenship. America doesn’t require that. Taiwan does, then complains about losing allies to China. Does Lithuania’s government know how Taiwan treated its immigrants even to this day?

Had Taiwan treated others how they want to be treated, they wouldn’t have the trouble they do. And, Taiwan would not look like such a delicious target for war-thirsty China. The big danger is that US failure in Afghanistan on Sunday will encourage China’s calculus that an invasion of Taiwan is feasible. Combined with Taiwan’s self-inflicted weakness from discrimination against foreigners, China’s invasion question is more of a likelihood.

But, looking at even deeper strategy, we must consider China’s accusation that the US is playing games. If that were so, then failure in Afghanistan was staged by the US to provoke China into viewing the US as weaker than it is, and the US allowing non-reciprocal treatment of its own citizens in Taiwan would be intended to weaken Taiwan for strategic purposes as well.

Regardless of China’s conspiracy theory—which Chinese strategists never imagine to such length—the peaceful path would be for China to not take the invitation for attack and for Taiwan to treat others with respect. Like Jesus wanting to die on the Cross, a power that welcomes disrespect is up to something. But, the devil is none the wiser.

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