Prelude to Conflict: Asia, August 25


Asia has a bigger problem now: A Beijing spy investigation. This could tip the balance in the US military favor because the Western public doesn’t like Beijing spies. Beijing is unlikely to back down. Even in online gaming, the Chinese have trouble knowing when they are losing. They are also easy to provoke on accident.

The official “story” is that Taiwan may have gotten rid of a Beijing spy. But it gets deeper and harrier, with flashbacks to Blagojevich’s self-defense in Illinois, along with two main questions: Who helped him and why did only one person resign?

Whether it was intentional, no one helped the supposed “spy” (Chang 張顯耀) more than Taiwan’s Nationalist party (KMT). Top government leaders enacted and proposed agreement after agreement with China that encouraged secret talks between Beijing and Taiwan’s government. Spies love secrecy every bit as much as the KMT does.

Why did only one head roll? Heads always roll, one at a time, when political rulers from Mainland China find themselves in hot water. Having come from Mainland China to Taiwan, the KMT is no exception to history. A few years ago, Wu replaced the former VP after a head rolled when Ma looked bad at election time. Now, while all the secrets between Taipei and Beijing are being exposed, another head rolled.

Avoiding “instability” is the goal in all US policy in the region. At least, that’s the official “story” from the US.

This week, while Taiwan’s KMT investigates itself over another issue of corruption, Sunflower movement leaders Chen and Lin met with members of US Congress. They explained how the US “One-China” policy neglects certain issues, adding to regional instability.

*Boldface styled links are emphasized

Taiwan’s “Spy”

…Follow the events, the confusion, and the contradictions when Taiwan’s “Mainland Affairs Council” Minister resigns…

Confusion over MAC official’s leaving

Chang says Ma has been ‘hijacked’

High Prosecutors’ Office refuses case (requesting more evidence)

Taipei District Prosecutors’ Office to probe Chang case

Chang faces Investigation Bureau

Chang probed over classified info leaks

Spy’ was forced to resign, letter implies

Chang case may affect cross-strait talks: MAC

Changes in Hong Kong and Taiwan

Sunflower leaders urge US to drop ‘one China’ policy

Links between HK, Taiwanese activists bother Beijing

Anti-Occupy movement to blame for polarisation in Hong Kong

…An opinion essay from Hong Kong evaluating “Anti-Occupy” movement and their petition: Sign or lose your job. The petition asks mixed and unclear questions: Do you support peace? Are you against violence? Do you support democracy? Are you against Occupy Central? But, unlike a real petition, it doesn’t clarify a political or legislative policy and there is no way to verify whether the same person signs more than once. The article makes other clarifications about the truth of Occupy Central—how it only meets once a week on the non-business day of Sunday and does not aim to disrupt the economy or government, but to make a statement.

HK rally against Occupy welcomes non-residents

…The Prelude has long evaluated the Anti-Occupy movement as fake. You read it here first.

Regional Conflict Brewing

War in the Taiwan Strait: Would China Invade Taiwan?

…Very informed opinion piece on the “wishful thinking” that there is peace between China and Taiwan, along with the problem of the “One Country-Two Systems”

North Korea May Soon Have More Powerful Rocket

Anti-ship missiles in the defence of Taiwan: Limited war or people’s war?

…History analysis of asymmetric war from the 1982 Falklands War with modern lessons for how Taiwan could compete against China, along with the tough decisions involved.

Japan considering building its own jet fighters: report

Chinese “Jet” Incident

US accuses Chinese jet of ‘dangerous intercept’

Pentagon Says Chinese Fighter Jet Confronted American Navy Plane

Pentagon cites ‘dangerous’ Chinese jet intercept

Beijing calls US’ warplane claims groundless: report

Israel Back in Taiwan’s News

Hamas rocket barrages, Israeli air strikes resume

Stances harden as Gaza ceasefire end nears

Israel’s security is priority for a Gaza truce: Netanyahu

Kaohsiung Explosion Aftermath Questions

Kaohsiung residents protest plan

Shin Shin Gas apologizes for fatal Sindian gas blast

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