1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 7, 2021

SymphonyJune 7, 2021

It’s that time of year again. While Americans celebrate independence on July 4, Chinese mourn one month before on June 4, to remember the 1989 Tienanmen massacre. Chinese aren’t allowed to gather. People in Communist China are tightly controlled by programmed groupthink. Like robots, they parrot negativity about Westerners whom they have rarely met and never heard out. Hong Kongers and Taiwanese are a different story. They know. And, they remember.

As if China doesn’t have enough regional enemies, Malaysia says China entered its airspace “flying in tactical formation”. Sixteen Chinese jets were intercepted by Malaysia. China’s Global Times called it a training exercise that did not breech Malaysia’s airspace, then said people only object because of “Western hype”. It’s too bad so many people from so many countries interpret China’s actions as hostile. Regional sentiment against China only grows.

Of course, China showed its level of dedication to its 1984 treaty with Britain through the ban on any Tienanmen vigils. The treaty allows Hong Kong to be under China at all. Britain, the US, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia consider that treaty “permanently shredded“, which means they don’t consider Hong Kong under China and only need a military scuffle to enforce that decision. That is the military action they are actively looking for, the military action which China is helping them to find.

Worst of all for China is yet another increase in support from the global public. Because Microsoft Bing censored the famous photo of “tank man” from its search results—not only in China, but around the world. By playing to China’s apparent tune, Microsoft got to chalk up the blame to “human error” and the world saw China for the history re-writing addict it is. Microsoft would have done China a favor by not censoring “tank man”, even if instructed by China. But, with the Chinese appetite for respect, they’ll never figure out that Microsoft probably meant to do them dirty by going along. This was a test from the West on how far China would overreach unto its own undoing.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, March 15, 2021

SymphonyMarch 15, 2021

More pressure on China over the games and Hong Kong. According to the Chinese, treaties with China don’t obligate China. That’s how the West views it anyway. This is the war-causing confusion between the West and the Chinese…

China believes democracy and religion will destroy the Chinese. Their solution is to remove religion, free speech, and non-Chinese governments. China claims to respect these three, but thinks that they are exploited to China’s misfortune. So, China makes new laws, hoping to protect itself, then tells the West to back off.

But, the West is concerned about trusting promises. People won’t build skyscrapers on land they believe will collapse after ten years. Nor will countries and companies invest in another country if they believe the government might take over the company or arrest the officers. So, the West is concerned about “rule of law”, that laws are made, then don’t suddenly change in a way that breaks trust. As much as some old laws can be inconvenient for a government, losing trust from the world is proving much more inconvenient, as we are seeing with calls to boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics.

This is where the contradiction comes into play. China believed that Huawei could ignore Western law while their CFO travels to Western countries. When the Huawei CFO was arrested in Canada, China was genuinely surprised. To the Chinese, “rule of law” is a mythical concept, like using English to tell a dolphin what it’s like to walk on land. So, the Chinese were surprised.

With everything happening, China is utterly and genuinely surprised. This is not what Beijing expected.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 23, 2020

SymphonyNovember 23, 2020

“Prematurely shredded”—that’s how the “Five Eyes” alliance described the treaty allowing Hong Kong to be ruled by China. Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Britain, and the United States have decided that China broke the deal, referring to the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration. The danger is in how much China can’t understand what this means.

Accusing Confucian-Communists of breaking a promise is like accusing a pig of rooting in its own feces; it doesn’t know, it doesn’t understand, it can’t do differently, and it only feels insulted. The Chinese don’t know what a promise is because they never keep them—ever. They only know what they want and that they want it now. They were never going to keep their end of the deal, and Britain knew that, and China played right along.

Broken treaties are no small matter. In a sense, Western nations see it as a blaring stain on a nation’s permanent record. Far worse than financial bankruptcy is moral bankruptcy. The West played its hand well, waiting until China overreached time and again, to a point where the evidence was overwhelming, past the point where the people had come to the same conclusion long ago. Western governments can’t operate without the will of their people, which is another thing China doesn’t understand.

In its attempt at a hostile takeover of the world, China needed the goodwill of the masses. It’s action in Hong Kong over the past year stirred anything but goodwill. Western governments will be in trouble with their taxpayers if they don’t take action against China.

So, one more stone falls into the arch of Western action against China. With a declared-broken treaty on record, once the Chinese gets their ass handed to them, permanent surrender of Hong Kong—including the New Territories—will be in the growing list of the West’s unconditional terms. And, China made it all possible.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 27, 2020

SymphonyJuly 27, 2020

Bail on Hong Kong, jump to Taiwan. That’s the move from everyone.

Britain doesn’t bail on Hong Kong, but creates a path for Hong Kongers to bail on Hong Kong. Britain isn’t just walking away. By allowing British Overseas Passport holders to easily enter Britain, British Parliament responds as if 3 million British citizens and their families are suddenly in China—basically treating Hong Kong as if it is truly, fully Chinese. Britain ended its extradition with Hong Kong, making it the same as with China. Britain extended an arms embargo to Hong Kong already in place against China.

This is the part that confuses the Chinese. They want the world to recognize that Hong Kong is China, but when countries treat Hong Kong the same way as they treat China, China objects. Consider the mindset that demands: Everyone treat Hong Kong like China, but you interfere if you treat Hong Kong like China. The Chinese don’t understand how the world is responding. They never thought the world would respond this way. They think the world is simply being mean and cruel.

Staying consistent is not a part of the Chinese Communist worldview. Consulates do passport services and diplomatic visits, not much beyond that. That’s why countries allow them. America says China went way beyond that, claiming evidence of the consulate running a spy ring. Truth or lie, the Chinese thought they could do anything inside their consulate as if they were in Beijing, otherwise they wouldn’t need to burn documents before leaving. They don’t see America following consistent rules by demanding the consulate close; they only see America as starting a fight.

Western nations at least pretend to operate with universal standards and kept promises. They are far from perfect, but at least they pretend to and their voters expect them to. China doesn’t even pretend to operate with universal standards and kept promises. Chinese Communists simply do whatever they decide for each, individual situation, then justify it as either “their right to do what they want” or as “an internal matter” or as “what is best”. If China makes a promise, then decides to break it without any notice, then the people they promised object, China calls that objection “interference”. Following precedent or promises has no place in Chinese understanding of lawfulness.

Now, ask yourself about a government that insists that it is fair to change the rules throughout the game and without notice. What will mid-level leaders within that government do themselves and expect from their leaders above them and from their subordinates below them? Will their military be able to function with a culture where it is right to change rules at any time? Will ship captains prefer battles for the glory over winning the war? Will the West think such a military is a formidable threat or that such a military is inconsistent and easily defeated?

Taiwan certainly sees the Chinese military as a threat, but the Taiwanese apparently believe China’s military can be affronted. Taiwan boosts its own military budget while the US only increases ties. Banks are also looking to Taiwan as the Asian alternative to Hong Kong, which banks are losing interest in since it now appears to be truly, fully Chinese. With so many people running to Taiwan—and taking their money with them—Taiwan won’t lack the budget for defense.

So, ask yourself, with the shift moving to Taiwan, what will the rule-changing Chinese do? And, will China’s rule-changing embolden the West to think that China’s military won’t be very organized?

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 20, 2020

SymphonyJuly 20, 2020

Hong Kong is seriously considering shutting itself down. Many may argue that Hong Kong is certainly shutting down, but a basic understanding of humanity says that people are resilient. China claims that doing whatever China wants inside Hong Kong is good, right, and fair, regardless of the promise not to do so until 2047. Democracies and countries with free speech have always risen up with with unstoppable strength to resist powers claiming their right to control them from outside, as China is doing.

France insulted King Henry V of England, according to legend with three tennis balls instead of promised tribute. Henry invaded and conquered. At that time, the French were spoiled and foolish; their military was no match for England because it was not disciplined.

Scotland revolted against King Edward I and won independence. At that time, the Scottish were selfless and willing to burn their own corn fields and even die; Scotland fought from desperation to not be oppressed while England’s disposition of entitlement was no match.

China claims that Hong Kongers are spoiled like the French were under Henry V. Hong Kongers claim they are desperate to escape oppression like the Scottish under Robert the Bruce. Who is right? The next few years will answer that question. But, it could go either way. Nothing is decided.

At this time, however, China is doing certain things, then Hong Kong is responding a certain way while other countries in the world respond in their ways. China believes everyone else is wrong.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 6, 2020

SymphonyJuly 6, 2020

It’s official. China has broken the treaty that allows Hong Kong to be Chinese. The last time Britain accused China of breaking treaty, the Royal Navy opened fire on the Taiwan city of Tainan in 1858. The time before that was just a few decades earlier, when Britain obtained Hong Kong Island in a surrender from the Chinese after the Opium Wars.

Those wars began because China believed it was fair for silver to flow out of Britain, but only tea leaves to flow out of China. China would not accept British inventions and technology in trade, only silver for leaves. Opium was another leaf, one some in China were willing to return silver to Britain in exchange for.

For China, friendship has always been a one-way street. The Opium Wars did not begin with British military intervention. They started with an unbalanced sense of justice from China and subversion in response from Britain. While the British military did not start the wars, it ended them.

Now, China has passed a law in Beijing that affects the streets of Hong Kong. That violates the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration, the basis for Hong Kong’s return to China. It seems 150 years have not changed anyone’s disposition. China wants laws written in one city, then obeyed in another. China wants to make promises, then ignore them. Britain will not respond with military, but with subversion. In the end, America’s military may play a role, but Hong Kong will likely return to the British for one, single reason. History repeats for those who refuse to learn from it.