Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 17, 2022

China is illegal. The US Department of State even says so. France even reports as such. This won’t exactly improve friendly relations across the Pacific. It’s actually a much larger step to an all out conflict.

Just over a year ago, November 2020, Western allies declared that China’s 1984 treaty with Britain, the basis for Hong Kong returning to China, was “permanently shredded”. The West has already declared that Hong Kong is no longer Chinese, effectively viewing China as an illegal occupying force which only needs a policing action to enforce and return Hong Kong to an already-decided British control. That’s what the West is thinking.

That decision came because certain lawmakers in Hong Kong were ousted because of a law originating not inside Hong Kong, but Beijing, violating what Britain meant by “a high degree of autonomy”. That law from Beijing was about “national security”. Now, Hong Kong’s government is expanding its definition of “national security”. Things are going less the way the West wants, giving more excuses for Western governments to rally Western taxpayers to support action against China.

Then, there is the snowless Olympics in Beijing. Not only are the Games boycotted by the West, they seem to be boycotted by the weather as well. Hatred for China only grows. As the Times said previously, awarding the 2022 Games to China was a setup.

China is in a global PR war with the West—and China is losing. The West knew this because China’s old “trump” card of media censorship won’t work on Western newspapers. And, Western governments know that China was so accustomed to turning off the camera that China never learned to simply smile for the camera. China just keeps on frowning.

Then, a Taiwanese F-16 went missing. It’s whereabouts and incident remain unknown. This could be—and certainly should be—a warning. Is this the 21st Century Reichstag or Lusitania? Did China sink the jet or could it be sabotage? If it was neither and truly was flight error, any ill will from Taiwan or the US could paint it to blame China. If China is smart, China will be afraid. After all, the West is much better at camera stunts than the Chinese. And, we live in a world controlled by what plays on camera, not what’s on a blank screen.

Indo-Pacific

Study on the People’s Republic of China’s South China Sea Maritime Claims // US Department of State

China’s maritime claims unlawful: US report // Taipei Times

US State Department Study Dismisses China’s ‘Unlawful Maritime Claims’ in South China Sea // The Diplomat

US lays out case against ‘unlawful’ China maritime claims // France 24

China

Why DID the Winter Olympics go to Beijing? // Daily Mail

Taiwan

China might raise pressure next year: British historian // Taipei Times

Taiwan seeks to be top destination for Mandarin learners from US: official // Taipei Times

F-16 goes missing off western coast // Taipei Times

Hong Kong

Flashback
Western allies say China broke Hong Kong deal by ousting lawmakers // Yahoo News

Evening Update: As Hong Kong eyes expansion of national-security law, role of foreign judges faces fresh scrutiny // The Globe and Mail (CA)