Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 20, 2020

China is engaging in “rapid expansionism”; this is different from the slower-moving modes of Russia and, until Trump, the United States. During Obama, Russia took back Crimea—after that fling Nikita Khrushchev had in giving Crimea to Ukraine when it wasn’t his to give. Russia has also been crawling its influence in Syria, softly with Iran, and shrewdly using China as an effective puppet.

America, though not an empire seeking to claim more within its political borders, propelled power through military bases around the world. Once the Chinese got over their phobia of technology—a disease it long had, which even led up to the Opium Wars—they looked beyond their bubble and saw America’s non-border expansion. But, they still haven’t seen Russia’s soft-handed expansion for what it is. 180 military bases in China’s backyard didn’t bode well with China’s neediness for receiving endless heinie kisses.

Thankfully, Trump is slowly recalling propelled American power—consider Syria, Afghanistan, Turkey, and now Iraq. He is not the archetypal “neocon” expansionist. But, other than Trump, America did have its own soft form of expansionism.

China, different from either of the two soft expansions of America and Russia, is engaging in a more rapid, rude, speedy expansion. The Chinese don’t care how they come across to others because they have been knocked off their emotional rockers, having seen that the world doesn’t regard them to be a fraction of what they think themselves to be. This speed has alarmed the nations of the world like a body’s immune system responding to a spreading virus or cancer. Even India is on alert.

Russia played its card well—or maybe we should say Russia played its China well: expansion backed by Russia, which upsets the global balance, and Russia doesn’t get blamed for it. China doesn’t know what its speedy expansion, mainly against Taiwan and India, will do because China hasn’t been paying attention to the rest of the world for most of human history.

Great Pacific

Photo of the Day: China having a fit after nations congratulate Taiwan president // Taiwan News

Xi Jinping’s approach to Taiwan and Hong Kong has backfired // WA Post

China

Xi’s Wider Fight With U.S. Is Only Just Beginning After Trade Deal // Bloomberg

HSBC aware of Huawei’s ties with Iran unit before arrest of founder’s daughter, documents show // SCMP

The ‘giant hole’ in Trump’s new China deal // Politico

Hong Kong

Hong Kong protester trials: a case for mercy for the young and less culpable // SCMP

Hong Kong’s Lam told: ‘You are the laughing stock of the world’ // Aljazeera

Man arrested after catching Hong Kong police on camera in restaurant // SCMP