Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 1, 2015


Everyone is writing a lot of papers to each other, just like before WWII. Much of this has to do with who claims what territory, which affects how one nation identifies another, which affects peace and stability. Letters can change all of that.

By not normalizing relations with the government it expelled, China has kept a war on the books for over 65 years. This defines China’s military and government as an occupying force. They could end that war and legitimize their claim to the mainland, but they want to keep the war going until they control all land they have ever claimed. No one knows how long that will take.

War games happen in stages, time limits, and windows of opportunity. The times are shifting and, once China has the chance to take some of the islands in the Pacific, other factors will have changed, thereby outdating their battle plans. Letting things stretch on too long is always a bad idea.

Still having not resolved their own status in their own view, and by consequence their status in the view of other nations, China has not gained full support from its own people. Taking more and more land will not fortify strength at home, it will invite revolt from within. Now, trying to cover large amounts of space in the Pacific, by putting their military farther from home, their own military won’t be able to help of their already disgruntled public initiates a coup.

By not consolidating it’s ambitions and moving past the past, China has spread itself too thin. By taking any and all territory that it can, China is easy to provoke. By being easy to provoke, China is easy to control. What we are seeing in the Pacific and Spralty Islands right now is probably happening according to every step of a playbook deep inside the Pentagon. And the best kept secret is that China thinks that the PLA thinks it is playing by its own rules when it is actually playing right into the Pentagon’s hands.

Things sure look a lot like they did before WWII. Especially with all the letters about territory.


Renminbi ‘no longer undervalued’, says IMF

Document: China’s Military Strategy

China to project its military further and stronger

China warned over ‘insane’ plans for new nuclear power plant

China files protest with US over spy plane over Spratlys

Expedia Sells Majority Stake In Chinese Partner eLong For $671 Million

…No clear reason why.

Wal-Mart employs more people in China than every Chinese company combined employs in the US

…Which essentially means money leaving China.


DPP proposes cyberarmy in its defense ‘blue’ paper

Chu rules out changes to KMT’s primary process

President Ma proposes South China Sea peace initiative to collective yawn

Ben Bernanke arrives in Taipei for economic forum


Japan, Malaysia agree to beef up defense cooperation

Japan to join U.S., Australia war games amid growing China tensions

Japanese nuclear regulator OKs first reactors to restart