China – Page 45

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 31, 2016

Chinese President Xi has been hailed with a personality cult akin to support for Chairman Mao, at least in some circles. As if the Xi personality cult wasn’t enough, China also saw a bloodless victory in the Philippines. In an effort to seek their own so-called “independence”, Philippinos’ new choice of a president has thrown-off many ties with the US in exchange for more dependency on China. China still patrols disputed Philippine islands, but fishing boats don’t get harassed any more. It probably makes sense in the Philippines every bit as much as it made sense to France and Italy 80 years ago.

The Pacific resembles pre-WWII Europe with more and more likenesses every week. NPR reported that Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte will stop swearing as much. That headline probably made sense to NPR, given the situation. As for swearing and the Pacific, Hong Kong, with no military, is putting up the greatest fight against China. Lawmakers “swore” during their swearing-in, contrary to some stipulations that no Hong Kong lawmaker can object to Chinese rule.

The Philippino “switch” was always going to happen. Their desire for “independence from other countries” will eventually drive them to fly China’s flag above their own, just how China’s desire for respect provoked Beijing to provoke the West, just how “America and her interests” drove the US to fly its flag at military posts in countries across the globe thereby frustrating Beijing and Milan.

With Taiwanese public continuing strong objection to Chinese patrol expansionism (75:18%), with Hong Kong (under China) wanting out from China, with the Philippines shifting sides, and with Cambodia cozying up to Beijing, we could see more jersey swapping in the coming months. Japan and South Korea are standing against North Korea on nukes—by cooperating with the US. That coalition could very easily extend to Taiwan, as far as N Korea nukes are concerned. The islanders of Taiwan oppose nuclear “anything”, just like post-Fukushima Japan.

Taiwan also has a close cooperation with the US military, the kind of cooperation the Philippines just renounced. The Pentagon has yet to give an elaborate position on the Philippines’ wave-making. In war, if the Philippines violates any alliance agreements, the Pentagon could declare the Philippines as “rogue” and get the excuse they need to use force. Who knows what would happen then.

China’s “no-objection” policy for HK lawmakers has given Great Britain whatever excuse the Crown needs to anchor the Royal Navy in Hong Kong, much like Queen Victoria did against China via Taiwan. When Southeast Asian Islands start spitting at each other, Hong Kong could could get snatched-up in a Pacific-West coalition. Having no military could be the only reason Hong Kong can court sympathy from the West. Guarded by mountains between the New Territories and Shenzen, Hong Kong would be strategic. The West would then see Hong Kong as the “trump card” while China would come back with the Philippines as the “wild joker”.

The Philippines and Hong Kong don’t seem to have figured out that every island is just another pawn. The Pacific Daily Times Symphony Editorials take no sides, except the side of foresight: It was all predictable.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 24, 2016

SymphonyOctober 24, 2016October 24, 2016

Pro-China legislators blocked the swearing-in of pro-Independence lawmakers in Hong Kong. Pro-Independence activists from Hong Kong told Taiwanese not to give up on independence. China said that independence for either Taiwan or Hong Kong is a “futile” plot. Then, Hong Kong told Taiwan not to meddle in other countries’ affairs.

Taiwan’s former president from the former-controlling party faces charges of leaking secrets of the State. That former-controlling party is working on formulating its opinion of Taiwan and China, while the newly-controlling party’s administration investigates the former president.

The Philippines won’t be cooperating with the US Navy anytime soon. Old traditions are over. Philippine military leadership wants China to make the first move in the South Sea, but China already has, especially with the man-made islands.

China also made the first move in Hong Kong’s independence movement. Without the change to vet politicians in advance, rather than vet HK laws after the fact, HK’s Independence movement might not have had enough wind to be what it is. Likewise, the Western press continues to publish stories casting doubt on China’s economy, based on debt. China’s press responds by casting doubt on the Western stories that cast doubt.

The trend seems to be announcing opinions about other countries’ opinions about their opinions. So much opining about opining almost resembles pre-WWII Europe.

The best-kept secret seems to be that everyone’s money is based on debt in this brave, new world, including pre-WWII Germany.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 17, 2016

SymphonyOctober 17, 2016October 17, 2016

China expanded its network this week. The focal point was the BRICS summit. But, China also expanded its network into Space, sending Shenzhou 11 to the Tiangong 2 Space laboratory.

Meanwhile, back here on Earth, China’s solar, trade, and finance network expanded into roads with India, fighting terrorism with Russia, and world peace with South Africa. Aerospace was also on the table; South Africa has drones, solar batteries, and wind turbines. The activity at BRICS is all so fascinating, it feels like a day at Silicon Valley.

The excitement wasn’t limited to BRICS. China also wiped-out a huge chunk of debt in a State visit to Cambodia. Cambodia borrowed more money. Who wouldn’t?

The week of tech and finance continued elsewhere in the Pacific. Taiwan is manufacturing military parts for the US, not only for the Wolf A1 Carbine, but also PAC-3 Patriot missiles.

But, tech week didn’t go so well for Northern Korea. Their Musudan missile test failed, at least according to the Pentagon. Bummer. Everything else was so exciting.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 10, 2016

SymphonyOctober 10, 2016October 17, 2016

The tied rises and falls, but tensions only rise in the Pacific, week after week. This week, China and its old buddy, Russia, were seen in public together. And, it seems China has a new friend in the Philippines’ defense office. The tension is at such a point where the public has not only learned about it, but is getting “used to” it. The excessive education writers insert into their news articles, informing readers and re-informing readers about the history of China’s “nine-dash line” and the South Sea certainly helps move this from “news” to “mundane”.

But, who is the villain? Arguably, the US is the villain, but not for the conventional reasons. Had Trump had his way, the US never would have borrowed money from China to get involved in the Mid East in the first place. The US Navy could have then operated out of the red and more in the Pacific blue. Then, China’s “island-building” might never have happened and Beijing wouldn’t have been strong enough to vie for a fight that it seems to want so badly—at least by proxy of the changes in the maps Beijing insists on seeing printed globally. But, that’s all speculation.

As you watch headlines, note the trickle of economic articles on China. China didn’t get it’s money through innovation, policy invention, or good will; it got its money because the Western lower-middle class pinched pennies so much they would spend $1.50 in gasoline to drive across town where an item cost $0.75 less. That drove jobs to China—which capitalized on US penny-pinching and pinched their own dollars into pennies, another thing Trump has criticized the Chinese for. China won the lottery, a story which ends well for few.

So, like a 16 year old with the keys to the Porsche he bought with his rich uncle’s money, China tried to build islands in hopes of rewinding the pages of history to their nostalgic splendor. While the US abandoned the mess it made in the Mid East—creating an otherwise would-have-failed enemy in the process of going and leaving—China could capitalize on the vacuum left by the AWOL US. Had China known how to earn the money it ended up with, Beijing would have had the smarts to be where ISIS now stands. Had they the smarts to learn from loss, they would have beaten Putin to the punch and build their islands closer to the vacuum. But, like a jealous company set on “wants” instead of “needs”, China is building islands that the US can take over in 15 minutes.

In the end, China will have to sign some kind of truce, though probably not a full “surrender”; the man-made islands will go to the US or some puppet thereof; and the US presence will have done exactly what China didn’t want, thanks to China: expand. A stronger China in the Mid East with “status quo” in the South Sea might have been more profitable, for China most of all.

The irony of it all begs the question: Was the penny-pinching culture of the American lower-middle class some CIA plot from the beginning to boost China’s confidence beyond feasibility? Probably not. But, is might make a great thriller “espionage intel.” novel.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 3, 2016

SymphonyOctober 3, 2016October 17, 2016

With the US continuing its shift to Asia from the Middle East, China faces a choice. Beijing knows that various and sundry forces in the Middle East are a growing threat—as well as in Malaysia and other places Chinese have migrated to. From Obama’s arguably premature exit from Iraq, we can see the results of a military vacuum. But, the Pentagon has been announcing a shift away from the Middle East and toward Asia for quite some time, regardless of Obama’s or any other American president’s choice of timing.

Hostile groups in the Middle East are hostile both to the US and China. These are a kind of “shared enemy”. With the US no longer holding the China-US enemies in check, China becomes vulnerable, and more quickly so. The Middle East is much closer to Chinese “Far East” territory than the Western US on the opposite side of the world.

China has a choice: Continue to fortify to compel changes in the South Sea while remaining vulnerable to enemies in the back yard or else fortify where the US left, grow in strength where Beijing had not initially dreamed of, and maintain non-conflict at home. So far, it seems that China wants to wind history backward rather than forward; that means not only winding back the maps, but bringing all the conflict that came with them and more. But, we’ll see.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 26, 2016

SymphonySeptember 26, 2016October 17, 2016

The iPhone 7 is why Taiwan’s market jumped last week. The US presidential debate is why the Asian market dipped Monday. At least, that’s what the “experts” say.

The US and Philippine militaries will practice, especially since the Philippine president thinks he needs more US troops in his back yard pool. China flew no small number of jets past Japan in their own rehearsals—for something. China is also investigating North Korea’s banking connection to their nukes. South Korea won’t help with relief from the devastating Tumen river flood in North Korea for concern that Kim would take the credit and bolster his power. And, the headline news from Taiwan is typhoon Magi, the approaching storm.

Two things are for sure: There is more than one storm brewing in the Eastern Pacific and money is involved in all of them.