Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 19, 2016

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 19, 2016

The investment company of Taiwan’s former-controlling political party—because, yes, a political party owning investments is not yet illegal in Taiwan—is attempting to sell assets in Japan. This comes as the same party sent a delegation to China made up of business and local government officials from their shrinking minority of cities they still control. The main topic was said to be “tourism”. Apparently, since China slammed the door on talks after the “other party” won a landslide, Beijing and the old, failing guard in Taiwan miss each other, especially the “tourists”, thousands of which were reported missing in Taiwan in years past.

One would think that China would not want to slam the door on it’s best and most convenient way to insert spies into a country it is officially at war with. And, one would think that the unpopular Beijing friends in that country would have the decency to label their talks with some other, less suspicious topic. But, pride—especially the Asian varieties—tend to blind the very common sense necessary for whatever victory one seeks. In Chinese thought—which the failing party in Taiwan comes from—pride is a victory unto itself.

Few things illustrate the “dragon” in the East better than this. Beijing slammed the door on Taiwan. But, it welcomes nostalgic local governments who agree with it’s made-up tales of history, including the admitted-to-be made-up “1992 consensus”, which has a very interesting interpretation of “consensus”, extending to include ideas that run against popular opinion.

But, the enemy in this is not China. China’s choice to close the door was wise for both China and Taiwan. Fewer opportunities for spy exchanges is good. The enemy is the failed political party that is attempting to play both sides, like a double-agent spy hiding in plain sight.

This is an indication. Talks are coming to a close. Action will develop. With a new American president on the way—where both leading candidates have more experience with China than any candidate before—Beijing will no longer have panting dogs begging for food in the presidents’ offices of its adversaries. Get ready. November will not be as important as January.

In other news, China’s banking situation could be either good or bad, which made headlines once again. China did take the effort to criticize tourism in Taiwan, specifically the Dalai Lama’s. And,  Japan wants in on the party on China’s South Sea. Make sure you read Boolmberg’s well-republished article about Japan’s announcement, along with the article linked mid-way through that educates the Western public about what China has been doing, just in case anyone lives under a rock.

It’s funny, for the last several years, the Western Press has been obsessed with educating Western readers about the various complexities that exist within China’s “nine-dash-line”. Perhaps newswriters see something coming and hope that their readers will have to do less “catch-up” when the “EXTRA” editions appear in the streets once again.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 12, 2016

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 12, 2016

North Korea launched “another” nuke test. The announcement made sure that the North Koreans knew that it didn’t harm the environment. The Philippines released photos proving that China was doing what it had already been found guilty of and yet didn’t care.

Obama and China pointed fingers at each other this week. Reportedly, yet unconfirmed, China had a few more fingers to point than Obama. And, none of this is news, yet it continues to get reported week after week.

Instead, the news has quite a different tone:

A young woman walked a young man like a dog in Fuzhou before he stood up and they entered a shopping center together. China has finished the world’s “tallest” bridge, yet we won’t be able to cross it for several months. Research shows that about 20% of Taipei has been built on unstable ground and the Taipei mayor cares about the report of the ground as much as China cares about the verdict at sea. And, the most interesting news of all is that, while democracy ideologies have not found their way into North Korea, Green Peace’s ideologies have.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 5, 2016

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 5, 2016

The cycle of history is becoming more of a cyclone. Not much changed at this year’s G20: Posturing, “sovereignty” subjectively defined to excuse nearly everything and everyone’s self, money used as the looming threat to scare each other into cooperation. There wasn’t much mention of the larger pending threat: Islam.

Whether any brand of “militant” or “peaceful”, Islam does one thing G20 should discuss, but doesn’t: Islam grows.

Various forms of Islam stand on China’s doorstep. The Chinese are aware of hostile takeovers, but not very much, it seems. The game-changer in the Pacific conflict will be Islam in Southeast Asia. Eventually, treaties, strategies, alliances, and battle lines will re-form around the topic of Islam.

This coming presence will likely stay fights between America and China as China defines another “enemy”. The ever growing—especially this week—Hong Kong dissent toward China may suddenly value the armies of Beijing. Cookie-cutter statements about the US, Taiwan, and China won’t receive the time of day.

The one thing we learn from G20 is that the largest topic in world news was totally ignored by the world’s 20 largest national leaders. But, it won’t stay that way. We’ll see what happens by next year.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 29, 2016

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 29, 2016

The battlefronts are solidifying. China has expanded into cooperation with Russia, aircraft engine manufacturing, and diplomatic arenas.

G20 is a hoped-for tool that could make China an international giant. China wants in on Syria, just as the US and Russia may be reaching something to label as an “agreement”. While China has managed to insult and be insulted by many of the G20 countries, Beijing still believes that the important G20 diplomatic moves wait on the road ahead instead of in the past.

The timing of launching its own aircraft manufacturer should raise eyebrows. Taiwan, a US customer of the market-dominant F-16, which the US has not delivered on in the last several years, held secret talks with China, which the US wasn’t even invited to. This happened under the KMT-Nationalist administration, which just saw a crippling defeat, except for recent, small election on Taiwan’s east coast. The opponent, DPP, took control of both Taiwan’s presidency and legislature over the last six months. Now, with China’s secret-talk door closed to a US F-16 customer, China starts manufacturing its own engine parts. Why now? Did China get all the technology plans they were ever going to, one way or another? Is it just coincidence? Why is China also snubbing Russia?

The greater suspicion is the vaguely-defined cooperation between Russia and China. If the two countries are such great friends, why is China not buying more aircraft from Russia? Why go into competition with the US’s aircraft competition?

All of these questions point to a demonstrable worldview inside Beijing. The what and why and means can be largely debated and rarely proven. But, all paths lead to a path-based worldview. China sees cooperation with Russia just as it sees cooperation with nearly everyone else: Just another stepping stone. And, the stepping-stone builders are literally building rocks to walk on in the sea.

China’s motive is known only to the Chinese puppet masters and God Himself. But, no one should think for a moment that China plans—for good or ill—to stop with control of their nine-dash line in the South Sea.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 22, 2016

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 22, 2016

There really isn’t much news this week in the Pacific. China and Russia practice war games in the disputed South Sea while the US and South Korea practice their war games near the Korean Peninsula. Taiwan’s government continues what is expected of the new regime: Status quo, strength, and corruption crackdowns—two of which don’t exactly please China.

Status quo is exactly what China will not accept. Taiwan and the US object to the objection to status quo. No big changes are coming from the countries China opposes. China is determined to break the mood. Beijing sees the West as “already having” upset status quo and wants to revert to history—well, a specific part of history anyway. So, “status quo” has become a relative term, as has “perp”. We’ll have to leave conclusions in the hands of the people.

That conclusion may be soon as much as it may be well-informed. The world slowly becomes more and more aware of what is happening in the South Sea. When someone busts a move to make headlines, there won’t be any surprises.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 8, 2016

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 8, 2016

China, China, China. That’s what we see in headlines and it’s what we see in the Pacific. Japan objects to 230 Chinese vessels swarming disputed islands. Chinese jets swarm over its man-made islands. And none of the actions of China come accidentally. CNBC reports a closed and undisclosed meeting of top Communist Party officials.

Beijing may be unaware that they are setting a precedent for each country in a dispute to send 230 vessels—or maybe not. Maybe Beijing thinks other countries can’t compete with Chinese force. Or, maybe a confrontation is what Beijing wants.

The unreported factor in the Pacific dispute is that each country acts according to a psychology foreign to all others.

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