The White House’s distinction between Far Eastern allies and Afghanistan is consistent with the US strategic pivot during the Obama years: away from the Middle East, toward China. While China interprets the befuddled Afghanistan withdrawal as an indication that the US will not defend Far Eastern allies, the US interpretation implies a deeper concentration of military power. Each government’s policy indicates a deep belief in its own respective statement.
Taiwan’s president took the jab from Taiwan’s own, homegrown COVID vaccine. So, while Taiwan can claim one vaccine, Trump can claim all others. This further asserts Taiwan’s capability of standing on its own. Hong Kongers face the music, no matter the injustice. The world is watching. China’s response that Afghanistan is an indication that Taiwan should distrust the US serves mainly as a signal to Western readers that China indeed is a bully. Again, China doesn’t think they think so.
Taiwan continues to shine. Aide sent to Haiti after a devastating earthquake combines growing ties with Lithuania. China objects—and those are bad optics that China’s speech-control can’t control outside its borders.
China has been rewriting religion for years. Hymnals already read love for government rather than love for God. Now, we see more investigations against Hong Kong demonstrators who sought to uphold China’s agreement to democracy. In essence, China is investigating itself, indicating that China is divided against itself.
As a representative office exchange between Taiwan and Lithuania moves forward for this Fall, so do Taiwan’s de facto ties with the rest of the EU. China would rather object to this than be supportive of earthquake victims in Haiti. That is the obvious news narrative to take from what happened this week.
What’s not obvious is Taiwan’s prejudice against foreigners. Taiwan is having trouble building its submarines because of a shortage of engineering talent. Taiwan’s solution is to recruit more foreign talent. However, neither the problem nor the need for recruitment would exist if Taiwan had reciprocal regulations concerning immigration: protection of foreigner’s rights, five years leads to full citizenship, and dropping Taiwan’s ban on dual citizenship. To become a Taiwanese citizen, one must renounce original citizenship. America doesn’t require that. Taiwan does, then complains about losing allies to China. Does Lithuania’s government know how Taiwan treated its immigrants even to this day?
Had Taiwan treated others how they want to be treated, they wouldn’t have the trouble they do. And, Taiwan would not look like such a delicious target for war-thirsty China. The big danger is that US failure in Afghanistan on Sunday will encourage China’s calculus that an invasion of Taiwan is feasible. Combined with Taiwan’s self-inflicted weakness from discrimination against foreigners, China’s invasion question is more of a likelihood.
But, looking at even deeper strategy, we must consider China’s accusation that the US is playing games. If that were so, then failure in Afghanistan was staged by the US to provoke China into viewing the US as weaker than it is, and the US allowing non-reciprocal treatment of its own citizens in Taiwan would be intended to weaken Taiwan for strategic purposes as well.
Regardless of China’s conspiracy theory—which Chinese strategists never imagine to such length—the peaceful path would be for China to not take the invitation for attack and for Taiwan to treat others with respect. Like Jesus wanting to die on the Cross, a power that welcomes disrespect is up to something. But, the devil is none the wiser.
India has an aircraft carrier. It just finished its maiden voyage in China’s backyard. Those shipping lanes—one third of ocean-faring trade traffic—which China wants to claim by planting islands next to—most of them pass India. If any of them have traffic trouble, India will have reason to sail to the South Sea and clear up the cause of traffic congestion—or what some might call trade blocking.
India isn’t the only nation with a navy on the rise. Britain has its new aircraft carrier in the area. Germany wants to join the party. South Korea will join a scheduled US Navy exercise. And, the Japanese want to hire the British carrier builders to make their helicopter carriers F-35-ready. India’s carrier was built by a collection of 500 companies. If anything went nuts in the Taiwan Strait or the South Sea or the Sea of Japan, moving over to the Indian Ocean wouldn’t be a wonderful option since India already has its patrol.
Navies are snowballing in the East. If there’s money to be made in a Pacific scuffle, the convenient logistics of already having so many at the party could push the timing. Those islands-nations are in tumultuous waters.
British aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth is trudging through China’s backyard. Chinese government news “Global Times” describes Britain as trying to relive its old days. China was never happy about getting its ass whipped twice in the Opium Wars, which China provoked with its economic philosophy that “sliver-in, tealeaves-out” was sustainable trade. China, now with money from slave-cheap labor making tech designed and invented by the West and Taiwan, got enough money to build aircraft carriers from copied Russian designs at least 30 years inferior to Britain. That just goes to prove why China is the best.
China wouldn’t be angry if the Elizabeth wasn’t a threat. It’s possible that the military masterminds of the West sent the British group for China to look at, just to measure China’s level of objection. Military strategists would reverse-engineer China’s response to see how threatening the carrier group is to China, merely by China’s response. It’s a kind of soft-handed espionage, without having to cross any borders. China’s objection only helps with Western intel gathering. And, like a bull going for the bullfighter’s cape, China determines to attack that foreign flag as if on command.
Then, there’s the Olympics. Taiwan won the gold against China in badminton. A movement has been resurrected in Taiwan to insist its name be called “Team Taiwan” when competing in any world games, including the Olympics. In the past, a white-flag group of pansies convinced Taiwanese to let everyone push them around. But, like Trump the loser raises so much money for loser Republicans, Taiwan being called the nonsensical name “Chinese Taipei” when winning medals will only fuel global sympathy for the island hated by the perceived world-menace.
China’s media is partly right; the West is manipulative, but only because China always plays along.
While a typhoon largely evaded Taiwan over the weekend, tragedy struck the mainland. Shanghai faced flooding and death while India suffered a landslide in the Himalayas. In a shocking video, one boulder took out a bridge. Several people died.
But, speaking of Taiwan’s tendency to fall out of manure smelling like roses, there’s nothing like persecution to fuel the competition. Taiwan is rolling out its own, homegrown vaccine. Being a world leader in chipmaking, especially D-RAM, and having both avoided and purged COVID outbreak on its own turf, the Taiwan vaccine could become a world leader, along with its cocktail vaccine approach to booster shots. Beijing blocking Taiwan from the Pfizer vaccine could backfire if Taiwan’s vaccine and methods become more credible than Pfizer or Moderna. That has been the history between China and Taiwan, after all. So, it wouldn’t be surprising.
No doubt why China remains a hater where Taiwan is concerned. Biden follows Trump’s popular-in-America strategy of sanctioning Chinese officials. China does the copy-cat game, but avoids those most close to Biden because that wouldn’t seem friendly.
When Olympic network NBC showed the map the rest of the world passively-aggressivly responds that NBC should fix the insulting error—without stating what the supposed error is, and without stating whether China’s presumed fix would insult Taiwanese. But, Taiwanese don’t matter in China’s view. And, that’s why China should be trusted with the Olympics in 2022.
China faces a three-pronged attack in the realm of public opinion. The Olympics converge with COVID; the third is three levelings up in Chinese military aggression.
COVID is seen in the public eye as having mainly originated from China. Even with conspiracy theories surrounding Faucci and Gates, no explanation lets China off the hook. That actually works to argue against the conspiracy theories—if they were true, they would seem to give China an alibi, but they don’t. Every noteworthy theory on the COVID origin points to China.
Now, COVID is crashing the Olympics in Japan.
This makes an additional bad connotation against China and the Olympics. So, with China wanting to host the 2022 Olympics, boycotts against China can be expected even from the Japanese. Then, other countries will feel comfortable joining the anti-China Olympic boycott. Such boycotts from across the globe will achieve two things: fueling popular hatred against China and inflaming China’s emotional-shame reaction. The Chinese government will dig in its heels and the world will want the Chinese dead where they stand.
But, adding to both sentiments are China’s military saber rattling. Surprise military drills within 300 miles of Taiwan, a step up in Chinese vessels observing a US-Australia navy drill, threats to nuke Japan if Japan honors a treaty to defend Taiwan from invasion—these also enrage the non-Chinese public against China. China has the control to stop global anti-China sentiment: stop giving excuses. But, that is a course of action that emotionally-driven shame doesn’t understand. And, no one expects this response better than the masterminds of the West.
