Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 30, 2021

Adversity creates alliance. If China’s goal was to unite the world, it is succeeding. Taiwan and Japan are getting cozier than ever, as are Taiwan and the EU. The shift is happening and maps may need to be redrawn.

The logical outcome is the UK returning all of Hong Kong—including the New Territories—to the British Commonwealth, while Taiwan, Japan, and likely a to-be-united Korea become at least commonwealths of a US-Canada reach. This would be valuable because it places liaison states near each other in the Far East. Britain would have a formal government in Hong Kong. The US and Canada would have nearby governments via Taiwan, Japan, and Korea. So, traveling between the US, Britain, and the rest of Asia could all be done through the Taiwan Strait and South Sea.

From a geo-political planning perspective, it would be well-organized. In light of the PDT Asia Mad Scientist Theorem, we could suspect this is being planned. Based on that, failed control systems in North Korea were not only meant to be implemented in China, but also to eventually annex North Korea under Seoul’s government. When later applied via China’s policy, that would trigger events that later subject all of China under a regional cooperation headed by Western governments from both sides of the Atlantic. In other words, North Korea is a test to oppress, fail, and unite under democracy. That test eventually applies to make China fail, then China would be forced to accept formal friendliness with Britain and the US via Taiwan-Japan-Korea states under the US and a Hong Kong province under Britain. The thought is chilling for Chinese Communists.

But, that’s where things are headed. When China objects to a country talking with Taiwan, no one cares anymore. China’s opinion has been reduced to global insignificance—a living hell for respect-obsessed Chinese leaders. Sending more and more military to places without global agreement, then defending itself with insignificant opinions, tightens the noose. China remains its own worst enemy, not only in military defeat, but also inviting its region of the world to be willfully subjected under Western governments.

It is as if the whole thing is planned, and China keeps dancing on cue.
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Encore of Revival: America, August 30, 2021

The crises that brought down presidents! COVID was the prime excuse to hate Trump in his last year. It has now become the second reason to hate Biden and the reason California’s governor faces recall. Biden mainly faces the challenge of Afghanistan. A member of Trump’s former staff reminds us all.

This is the trouble with trusting politics. Republican voters trusted election polls, until rules were broken, then ignored. Democrat voters trusted the conclusion of Congress to choose Biden; now they have another Democrat in the White House to make people sick of Democrats. The cycle just keeps on.

We are looking at a Republican majority in the midterm election, as usual. Then, a possible Republican supermajority in the next general election, in which Trump will likely run and more likely win. Republicans managed a way to hold the Supreme Court through that time, which is suspicious.

No matter how good and benevolent, power corrupts and none should trust a supermajority within mankind. Fortunately, Trump isn’t seen as the immortal messiah his supporters once thought he was. Democrat voters already learned that lesson with Obama. Now, Republican voters have too.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 23, 2021

The White House’s distinction between Far Eastern allies and Afghanistan is consistent with the US strategic pivot during the Obama years: away from the Middle East, toward China. While China interprets the befuddled Afghanistan withdrawal as an indication that the US will not defend Far Eastern allies, the US interpretation implies a deeper concentration of military power. Each government’s policy indicates a deep belief in its own respective statement.

Taiwan’s president took the jab from Taiwan’s own, homegrown COVID vaccine. So, while Taiwan can claim one vaccine, Trump can claim all others. This further asserts Taiwan’s capability of standing on its own. Hong Kongers face the music, no matter the injustice. The world is watching. China’s response that Afghanistan is an indication that Taiwan should distrust the US serves mainly as a signal to Western readers that China indeed is a bully. Again, China doesn’t think they think so.

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Encore of Revival: America, August 23, 2021

Afghanistan is an epic mess. ISIS is back on the scene. China and Taliban take every chance to make their own public statements while the main Biden doctrine is to valiantly run away.

More deeply disconcerting is President Biden’s response to journalists to deny claims. NATO has egg on its face, but Biden puts on a performance during his press appearance that NATO allies are exuberant about how great everything is going. He specifically says that he hasn’t heard any bad opinions from any NATO member. He had the same response that he hadn’t heard about the poll indicating lack of voter confidence.

When confronted with a dissenting opinion, Biden’s defense is that he hasn’t heard about it, even though he was just informed. We’ll see if the pattern continues.

Joe Biden knows how government functions in the mechanical sense, and he is very good at standing confident with egg on his face—acting like there isn’t any egg on his face. He’s good at that. So, America’s government will continue to function on some level. Perhaps this was the “Neo-Con” plan in looking the other way when voters complained last November. But, Biden doesn’t have the mojo to keep the engine running—and the American public sees that more and more.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia August 16, 2021

Taiwan continues to shine. Aide sent to Haiti after a devastating earthquake combines growing ties with Lithuania. China objects—and those are bad optics that China’s speech-control can’t control outside its borders.

China has been rewriting religion for years. Hymnals already read love for government rather than love for God. Now, we see more investigations against Hong Kong demonstrators who sought to uphold China’s agreement to democracy. In essence, China is investigating itself, indicating that China is divided against itself.

As a representative office exchange between Taiwan and Lithuania moves forward for this Fall, so do Taiwan’s de facto ties with the rest of the EU. China would rather object to this than be supportive of earthquake victims in Haiti. That is the obvious news narrative to take from what happened this week.

What’s not obvious is Taiwan’s prejudice against foreigners. Taiwan is having trouble building its submarines because of a shortage of engineering talent. Taiwan’s solution is to recruit more foreign talent. However, neither the problem nor the need for recruitment would exist if Taiwan had reciprocal regulations concerning immigration: protection of foreigner’s rights, five years leads to full citizenship, and dropping Taiwan’s ban on dual citizenship. To become a Taiwanese citizen, one must renounce original citizenship. America doesn’t require that. Taiwan does, then complains about losing allies to China. Does Lithuania’s government know how Taiwan treated its immigrants even to this day?

Had Taiwan treated others how they want to be treated, they wouldn’t have the trouble they do. And, Taiwan would not look like such a delicious target for war-thirsty China. The big danger is that US failure in Afghanistan on Sunday will encourage China’s calculus that an invasion of Taiwan is feasible. Combined with Taiwan’s self-inflicted weakness from discrimination against foreigners, China’s invasion question is more of a likelihood.

But, looking at even deeper strategy, we must consider China’s accusation that the US is playing games. If that were so, then failure in Afghanistan was staged by the US to provoke China into viewing the US as weaker than it is, and the US allowing non-reciprocal treatment of its own citizens in Taiwan would be intended to weaken Taiwan for strategic purposes as well.

Regardless of China’s conspiracy theory—which Chinese strategists never imagine to such length—the peaceful path would be for China to not take the invitation for attack and for Taiwan to treat others with respect. Like Jesus wanting to die on the Cross, a power that welcomes disrespect is up to something. But, the devil is none the wiser.

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Encore of Revival: America, August 16, 2021

Competence and tolerance! The Taliban has taken over Afghanistan. The former president, hated from both Taliban and a third party in Afghanistan, fled to Tajikistan. At press time, the 36-acre American embassy was near fully-evacuated if not completely. Taliban leaders pledge tolerance, cooperation, and no retribution against allies of the former government. They say they want a relationship with the United States. The American ambassador requested to stay.

Will we see peace and promises kept? That has yet to be seen, but the promise is a first step and will be remembered by God. Muslims claim to worship the God of Abraham. We’ll see the Taliban’s part in that too, and the Times will help everyone remember.

From America’s perspective, look at Biden’s leadership. Such turns of events did not happen under Trump.  Biden blames his predecessor. Trump supporters may argue sowing and reaping—that coup begets coup. Biden’s election hinged on anomalous results in precincts with proven rule-breaking. That doubt was never cleared-up in the minds Trump supporters, though they have been smeared. That doesn’t seem like tolerance from the party of tolerance and choice. Nor does pressure—social, legal, or commercial—for vaccines seem like “choice” from the party of choice.

So, in the minds of Trump supporters, who may believe that coup begot coup, the Taliban’s “tolerance and cooperation” in Afghanistan may not pan out. But, we’ll have to wait and see. A promise kept from the Taliban would be welcome.

Did Trump stir the pot with his rhetoric? Maybe. But, the Capitol revolt in lieu of unresolved election irregularities and table pounding from Trump was as bad as it got. In the minds of Biden supporters—according to their votes and what followed—, the situation in Afghanistan is preferable to the Tweets of Trump. Some might reconsider their votes on both sides.

The big issue is leadership and results. Taliban strategy to take over Afghanistan did not consider the response from the former US president as much as it considered the response from the current US president. During the tenure of the current US president, the Taliban won and the US ran. Voters can see things for what they are.

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