Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 10, 2018

The “Huawei arrest” sends yet another a irritatingly mixed message to China. China believes that a “strong response” concerning Taiwan will convince the US to back away from support for Taiwan. Conveniently for China, the recent provincial elections in Taiwan seem encouraging and Beijing has reached out to Taiwanese cities that just elected pro-Beijing party candidates.

Premier William Lai intends to resign at the “right time”. Could that time be what is necessary so he can run for president? Taiwanese politics are quite unpredictable. All we should expect is a series of surprises before, during, and after 2020. Considering where things stand in the world, we must remember that there is no way the UK could be on Taiwan’s side, especially since the UK has concerns about Taiwanese fisherman illegally killing dolphins as shark bait. With opportunity seeming to open, and the increased possibility of the loud-spoken, pro-independence William Lai to run for office, Beijing may be feeling put in an ever tightening situation that compels action.

As concerned as the Chinese are about security, they are far more concerned about insult. Without any sympathy from Western news audiences, an extradition of the Huawei executive from Canada to the US could push China over the edge. China believes that its horrific past justifies its conduct today. It is only a matter of time before Beijing decides that a strike against Taiwan, supported by cooperation with Taiwanese city governments, would send the US out of the region. Taiwan may not be seen by Beijing as the irritant of tensions, but the solution to them. The US might have a different opinion.

China’s ‘nationalist bubble’ partly to blame for suspicions over global role, envoy to US concedes | SCMP

John Bolton: U.S. Won’t ‘Turn A Blind Eye’ To China’s Trade Practices | NPR

US-China tension could become confrontation as pressure builds in South China Sea, Taiwan Strait | SCMP


China warns Canada there will be ‘severe consequences’ over Huawei chief’s arrest | Independent

Chinese executive facing US extradition appears in court | AP

China Summons U.S. Envoy Over Huawei CFO | Bloomberg

Why Huawei arrest deepens conflict between US and China | AP

China’s Ire Finally Flares as U.S. Opens Huawei CFO Case | Bloomberg

Huawei arrest a ‘despicable rogue’ action: Chinese media | Yahoo – AFP

5 things about China’s Huawei after executive’s arrest | AP

The Latest: Huawei Awaits ‘Right Conclusion’ in CFO’s Arrest | US News


Beijing on ‘heightened alert’ as US Navy vessels sail Taiwan Strait for the third time this year | SCMP

Beijing ‘steps up naval patrols’ in Taiwan Strait in pushback at US warships | SCMP

Taiwan ‘will consider’ hosting US warships on Taiping Island for regional security | SCMP

Beijing seeks to build ties with Taiwanese cities after ruling party suffers election defeat | SCMP

US bill calls for Pentagon to send troops to take part in Taiwan military drills | SCMP

Lai to step down as premier ‘when time is right’ | Taipei Times

Taiwan accused of ‘slaughter at sea’ | Taipei Times