Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 20, 2021

The US is hitting China hard over treatment of Uyghurs. Nearly all imports from Xinjiang will be banned. At the same time, the US bolsters the call to bolster Taiwan’s military defense. However, Taiwan has the seeds of the same tyranny; it just doesn’t materialize into anything alarming because Taiwan remains small. The most obvious problem is that Taiwan refuses to allow Taiwan citizens to renounce citizenship, but demands Americans renounce their citizenship to become Taiwanese. Taiwanese can become dual-citizen Americans, but Americans can never become dual-citizen Taiwanese. That’s what some people call a “clue”.

Any double standard, no matter how small, will grow exponentially as a nation or organization grows. Taiwan’s double standard must be stopped before bolstering Taiwan’s military. Expunging double standards to escape fake democracy is the most effective way to help Taiwan right now.

China has been lecturing Taiwan about democracy. And, Taiwan has rightly and appropriately responded with harsh words. “It is ridiculous that China, which is not democratic at all, dares to tell Taiwan what democracy means,” said Spokesman Lo, from the Executive branch. That’s true. But, in terms of equal treatment to all people, Taiwan has its own deficiencies—which is fine because we all have deficiencies; but Taiwan’s deficiencies are being utterly ignored. We must ask why.

Is Washington so focused on China’s threat that leaders can’t foresee the next problem they will fear? Are lobbyists blind to the next problem, just as they were blind to the problem of making China so wealthy with exported American jobs over the last three decades? Is it greed? Is it a carefully crafted “next crisis”? Or, is it pure unawareness or apathy? We don’t know, but we need to be asking why America is running to help a country that treats Americans as “lessers”. Failure to do so actually makes China’s nonsense look less legitimate.

Don’t rush to automatically take sides in conflicts that have lasted centuries. The scariest part is that China’s government ignores the problem as much as the Taiwanese and American governments. That is what some call a “larger clue”.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 15, 2021

Taiwan is a peaceful island of peaceful people. The Taiwanese calm demeanor often plays tricks on the minds of Americans and Chinese. Every day, Taiwanese put up with enormous nonsense and harassment, yet manage to carry on with an authentic smile. They don’t just putt-putt forward, they charge forward with energy, even in the face of disquieting conflict. Their solution to conflict is to “ignore” it away; and that is the Taiwanese daily story.

And, that should put fear into any enemy with half a brain.

When roused to anger, the Taiwanese are more fierce and more dangerous than Americans. That is admittedly a large claim, but the world is about to witness. Their strength and willingness to fight can be seen in schoolyard spats. The calm, carry-on manners are enforced only by a monstrous willpower. Once peace is rejected by an opponent, that same great monster that held near impossible peace rages to war. That someone has the stamina to maintain peace so long should terrify anyone with half a brain.

But, it doesn’t even phase the Chinese. There’s your investment clue.

Nonetheless, Silicon Valley continues to seek investment in China, despite unified opposition from the two most controversial Republican and Democratic presidents ever, Trump then Biden. Even the US Chamber of Commerce lobbies for American companies to invest more money into China, according to Wall Street Journal.

It seems as the US brings manufacturing back home, China offers more candy to hypnotize the children of the Valley. Without any parents around it seems like it would work, were it not for Uncle Sam.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 8, 2021

China tripped the alarm. Revelations of a US aircraft carrier -shaped target in China’s Taklamakan Desert doesn’t exactly resemble a friendly trick-or-treat visit. Congress is upset, calling this the closest we’ve ever been. Washington tries to use calm rhetoric, saying they don’t foresee problems until 2024—it used to be 2025. But these days, they leave more and more room to avoid being wrong should a scuffle go ballistic in the Pacific.

The tech industry certainly is paying attention. Intel is building at five sites, three in the US, one in Ireland, and one in Israel. At the same time, the US government is questioning chip makers about their supply chains. One of those is TSMC, in Taiwan. Now, Congress wants to spend $52B on subsidies for chip makers inside the US. The message is clear: America is getting ready for a China-initiated disruption in the chip supply chain, the largest part in the world of which goes through Taiwan.

By the look of it, 2025 is the year when China will both be militarily dangerous and, for the chip industry, will no longer matter. While some news outlets cast China’s economy in a positive light, others show deep reasoning to sound the economic alarms. It looks like China is getting into a tighter and tighter pinch, and China’s economic response is the same as its response to political disfavor: marketing.

This week, the EU says it has unanimous support to strengthen relations with Taiwan—specifically because of China’s aggression.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 11, 2021

Biden is creating a special center within CIA for China. Xi Jinping is irate. Biden knows China almost as well as Trump. He met with Chinese officials as Vice President. While Trump played a “good cop” routine on China, Biden is in a better position to be less diplomatic. After all, hating on China does well in the polls, which Biden desperately needs for Democrats.

The US has been secretly training Taiwan special forces for over a year. The revelation comes from a report, officially recognized by the Pentagon. This all comes in the context of the US reaffirming its dedication to Taiwan.

Is the US trying to deter invasion from China by affirming commitment to stopping China? Or, is the US trying to provoke China by affirming commitment under the guise of deterring invasion from China? Which is it? In geopolitical strategy terms, the answer is: yes. In military buildup, deterring is provocation and provocation is deterrence; but wars are started because people want them to start. Deterrence and provocation are merely measures we take to excuse what we really want.

If the US didn’t want a war with China, then shipping jobs to China would never have been allowed in the first place. But, coupon clippers and Washington big hats agreed on the path that brought us here. And, make no mistake about it: we are here. Now, the world only needs one foreseeable yet somehow unforeseen surprise to spin the accelerating wheel into going out of control.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 28, 2020

Anymore, it’s not only bad news about China, but continued action in both military and trade. The pressure Washington puts on Beijing keeps finding new ways to keep turning up. Sanctions continue to increase. Military attention rises. And, Japan puts pressure on Biden to decry the “aggressive China”, calling Taiwan the next, likely target.

Just the same, Taiwan continues as the poster boy, especially with the pandemic China takes the blame for. Just when the Chinese government thinks they get a break, the opposition simply moved and grew. Western powers have effectively sneaked up on the Chinese, whose policies isolate them from the experience necessary to understand Western thinking. Western news audiences are being conditioned to support military action against China, no matter which party advocates it. As news watchers, we must see this trend as it has snowballed over the last decade. The Western world is moving toward war against China as Russia remains safely out of the spotlight.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 7, 2020

A date which will live in infamy, 79 years ago. The Chinese warned the Japanese not to attack America for fear of waking a sleeping giant. Now, the Chinese are speeding against their own advice. The move will likely be against Taiwan as a remote and indirect attack on the US. But, the fight between China and Taiwan could have been avoided. The wise can learn from foreseeable history, even when that history has not yet happened.

Taiwan and China are both run by governments with histories of cruelty, corruption, and incompetence. Taiwan is an emerging and aspiring democracy; China resists democracy. Taiwan is cleaning up its cruelty of the past; China increases cruelty today. Chinese Communist tanks killed thousands of unarmed protestors at Tienanmen Square in 1989; that party remains in power through today. Chiang Kai-shek led an even larger massacre in Taiwan in 1947; his party remained in power throughout Western trade and still exists today, though without total control. Now, these two face war. Would either have the money to bloody the other had the West simply demanded justice and order within their borders proportionate to any agreements of trade?

American Congress continues to push a bipartisan and unanimous agenda for Taiwan. The US wants Taiwan to import meat from livestock fed with ractopamine, something Taiwanese want no part of. The US sells weapons to Taiwan to defend against China—which builds its weapons with money made from exports to the US. Has the US been friend or enemy?

If we look at US and Western policy toward China and Taiwan over the last 70 years, we see pursuit of money, with a blind eye toward massacre of their own citizens, xenophobia toward their foreigners, all trailed by escalation toward war. That has improved, but only in the last 4 years and too little, too late.

From 1947 through 1989, Taiwan should have had limited trade, China none. Had that been Western policy, today both might be much more progressed in technology, just, orderly, wealthy, and most of all peaceful.

Taiwanese continue to grow and mature as a democracy. China continues to pursue control and alienate its neighbors. They each have their lessons to learn. But, not all help is helpful. It might not have come to war if the West had sooner insisted that nations learn a few lessons before bestowing wealth which Taiwan and China could have gained on their own with simple justice and order 70 years ago. Instead, we’re nearing the end of a path that started with greed and finishes in war.

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