Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 30, 2020

America has China fooled yet again. It isn’t hard to figure out, but still ingenious. Whatever strategist first learned it from a convenient mistake that happened with Taiwan. Taiwan’s current president, Tsai Ing-Wen, had previously endorsed Hillary, for 2016—a mistake she didn’t repeat in the 2020 election. When Trump was elected, Taiwan’s government was heavily concerned about retaliation from the Trump administration. But, Americans don’t hold grudges nor do we hold high regard for the opinions of foreign world leaders. Tsai reached out to Trump and they soon developed one of the best relationships heads of state ever shared.

China’s president, Xi Jinping, doesn’t seem to have learned that lesson, however. While many world leaders congratulated Biden when the news industry decided what the future should be, China waited until the GSA got the green light for transition steps. Then, he congratulated Biden on his victory. Taiwan still has not made any move since the electoral college has not convened and remains neutral and welcoming toward whomever the American president will be in January. China’s position shows worry mixed with miscalculation.

When Trump’s lawsuits, appeal to state legislatures, and near 80% support from his suspecting base land him a second term, China will be in for a shock. They will fear retaliation just as Taiwan did, no matter how unwarranted. This will drive China to take defensive measures without need and appear as the provocateur of the coming US-China conflict. Having served its purpose, US ambiguity over the election will quickly pass, and China’s leadership will begin to socially self destruct. Then hold on; things will be furious as they will be fast.


To be taken seriously, Quad needs military heft, not desultory naval exercises // India Express

Navy sends aircraft carrier USS Nimitz back to Persian Gulf // NY Post

Trade & Tech

Trump to add China’s SMIC and CNOOC to defense blacklist: Reuters // CNBC

Huawei founder says American politicians wants to kill the company // Android Authority

TSMC Reveals a Major Breakthrough Process coming to their 2024 2nm Processors that will Power Future Apple Devices // Patently Apple


Exiled bookseller: ‘If they can take Hong Kong back, the next place is Taiwan’ // Guardian

Beijing takes its South China Sea strategy to the Himalayas // Economic Times

Beijing Takes Its South China Sea Strategy to the Himalayas // Hindia News

China’s Xi Jinping Congratulates Biden On Election Win, Urges Cooperation // NPR

Xi Jinping calls to congratulate Joe Biden on election win // Guardian


Usage of hotline for foreigners takes off amid pandemic // Taipei Times

Fists and pig guts fly in Taiwan parliament debate on U.S. pork // Yahoo News

Taiwan starts submarine production // Taipei Times

Korean Peninsula

North Korea Covid: Why Kim Jong Un is cutting off China // CNN


China responds to India banning 43 additional Chinese apps // CNBC

Military Faceoff

Aboard USS Ford: More Weapons, More Launches, Faster & Safer // Breaking Defense

Naval Group Opens Office in Philippines with Submarine Deal in Sight // Naval News

Iran launches unconventional aircraft carrier against US threat // FleetMon