Encore of Revival: America, March 29, 2021

America faces big changes, but not the changes our conventional political grid might assume. Public trust in cloud platforms like Amazon, Facebook, and Twitter failed with the massive censorship surrounding the 2020 election. This week, a new cloud provider, Digital Ocean, went public. The Times has used Digital Ocean for nearly seven years.

Digital commerce shifts while the global supply chain faces more disruptions. Not only do we still lack supplies that were made in factories that are closed. Not only is the cruise ship industry floundering. The Suez Canal is blocked.

What is Democrat-controlled Washington doing?—Business as usual. Binden wants to focus on infrastructure—a digression from the Obama years. Republicans have always been good at spending money while appearing not to, while Democrats appear to spend money when they tighten the purse strings. Marketing is one of the best-kept secret ingredients in American politics.

The one thing unusual about this Democratic Washington is its dedication to a strong military. Russia surfaced three subs in the Arctic this week and, now all of a sudden, Democrats want to do military the same way Trump did. Just how the Bush-Obama years held a contiguous policy progression, the Trump-Biden years seem to reflect the competence, military, and infrastructure of FDR. In many ways, it is as if Trump is still in office. We did get Trump’s $2,000 checks, after all.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, March 22, 2021

Huawei plans to charge royalties for some of its 5G tech, but they may lose respect when they refuse rent payment for anchoring 200 military-manned vessels the Philippines’ backyard pool. International royalties are based on international agreement, which China denies. It brings back memories of the old phrase, “Who is ‘we’, you gotta’ mouse in your pocket?”

Taiwan, on the other hand has a vice on the semiconductor industry. And, having its evil pineapple banned from China, Japanese have discovered just how especially delicious Taiwanese pineapple are. And, they are quite amazing. Their cores are even sweet. Many other pineapple need the cores cut out because the acid is too strong. In Japan, when you order dinner, you just might get a sweet Taiwanese pineapple free of charge. Perhaps China could also charge royalties on Taiwan pineapple sales, considering that their ban helped with the boom in sales.

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Encore of Revival: America, March 22, 2021

Democrats push forward as if a 50-50 Senate proves a national mandate. In some sense it does. Even with suspicion of a stolen election, Republican voters allowed that by winning arguments rather than winning friends. But, as the well-earned Democratic agenda moves forward, Roe v Wade does too.

Arkansas just passed a law directly challenging Roe v Wade and with a a 6-3 Republican-appointed Supreme Court, an overturn is not unlikely.

While courts take what they take, Democrats are setting up danger in the Senate. Removing the filibuster won’t even give Democrats two years to work before a routine mid-term flip in 2022. With the unresolved suspicions of election stealing, the “incumbent” rules won’t apply the same either. We are set for a Republican takeover in 2024, without a filibuster-curbed Senate, made possible by Democrats, who were give power by unsympathetic Republicans, and only stoppable by a third party. Whether we see that third party before or after 2024 has yet to be seen. We just don’t know how many people have woken up to the nation’s deeper problems.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, March 15, 2021

More pressure on China over the games and Hong Kong. According to the Chinese, treaties with China don’t obligate China. That’s how the West views it anyway. This is the war-causing confusion between the West and the Chinese…

China believes democracy and religion will destroy the Chinese. Their solution is to remove religion, free speech, and non-Chinese governments. China claims to respect these three, but thinks that they are exploited to China’s misfortune. So, China makes new laws, hoping to protect itself, then tells the West to back off.

But, the West is concerned about trusting promises. People won’t build skyscrapers on land they believe will collapse after ten years. Nor will countries and companies invest in another country if they believe the government might take over the company or arrest the officers. So, the West is concerned about “rule of law”, that laws are made, then don’t suddenly change in a way that breaks trust. As much as some old laws can be inconvenient for a government, losing trust from the world is proving much more inconvenient, as we are seeing with calls to boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics.

This is where the contradiction comes into play. China believed that Huawei could ignore Western law while their CFO travels to Western countries. When the Huawei CFO was arrested in Canada, China was genuinely surprised. To the Chinese, “rule of law” is a mythical concept, like using English to tell a dolphin what it’s like to walk on land. So, the Chinese were surprised.

With everything happening, China is utterly and genuinely surprised. This is not what Beijing expected.

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Encore of Revival: America, March 15, 2021

The Court always rules in favor of the Court. When Chief Justice Roberts dissented against the other eight, he ruled against the court to preserve order in the Court. In this case, the students suing over free speech censorship probably don’t want to allow a private settlement to enable it to happen again. The concern at stake was whether the court can decide a real lawsuit after the basis is settled, but the injured party files suit for $1 anyway. Thomas thinks that $1 makes it real. Roberts doesn’t want judges giving opinions on problems that don’t exist—a judicial practice called “advisory opinion” that expired over 200 years ago. The problem is that this case is real, but it was privately resolved, thus the basis disappeared before the court had opportunity to rule.

The result is that anyone can sue anyone for $1 and SCOTUS could hear the case. That certainly favors the Court’s expanded abilities. The Court always rules in favor of the Court.

Europe isn’t happy about COVID-19 vaccines or the predicted third wave. Americans aren’t happy about how Democratic Governors Whitmer and Cuomo handled the pandemic. If nothing else, someone could sue them each for $1 and a Republican-appointed SCOTUS would get to decide their fates.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, March 8, 2021

Military budgets—that’s the talk of the Taiwan Strait. China wants its budget to grow so it can play with the big kids by 2035. China’s apparently not ready to play with the big kids, at least since India just ate China’s lunch. So, with China trying to bulk up even more, people are asking what the heck is going on with Taiwan.

Israel spends 5% GDP on asymmetric defense; Taiwan only spends 3%. So-called “experts” want Taiwan to spend more. The US wants Taiwan to spend more. Apparently even the newspapers want Taiwan to spend more because military budget is the talk of the week.

It was a strange week, though. So many things have gone peaceful in the East Pacific. China and India are suddenly getting along. Taiwan and China talk more about the need to talk. Threats and vibrato from Beijing haven’t stopped, of course. But, things are getting a bit quiet, and it seems somewhat eerie.

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