Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 16, 2015


A thorough and thoughtful article catches wind, documenting China’s threats against Great Britain over Hong Kong. Based on records declassified in 2013, the Crown wanted independence for Hong Kong long ago, but Beijing threatened invasion. The Hong Kong we know has been a store front so China can access the world and so Taiwan would become jealous, which it has not. This research article surfaced in the wake of the foreseeable publicizing effect of the Umbrella Movement’s forte. Now, reports are suggesting that, not only do China’s promises no longer matter, but they probably never mattered in the first place.

Bullies make threats because they fear conflict. Victors reply, “It doesn’t matter,” before the fight. Peacemakers are usually the most powerful. China has one problem that goes largely unreported: They have not been tested by war as the last four generations of American soldiers have been. China’s other problems are starting to make headlines, including the fact that Taiwan is finding its heart.

When entrenched Establishments fail, they usually spin their wheels expecting to get out of their own self-made rut. Taiwan’s old Establishment, which has caved to Beijing like Britain did through the decades, is now caving in on itself. Beijing won’t be happy, not only because Taiwan’s younger generation knows that the threats don’t matter, but because Chinese rarely like to admit when they know they would lose a fight they plan to start anyway.

China really had a great thing going on. They were improving. They were able to fix their problems on their own. It all went wrong with the idea that, to solve their family problems, their family needed to buy more land and adopt more family.

Hong Kong

The secret history of Hong Kong’s stillborn democracy

…Research article from Quartz.

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…On Taiwan’s incumbent party imploding

Chinese expert sees pro-independence win, stalled relations

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…A veiled threat

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