Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 23, 2015


The conflict is already here. As it seems, China always planned to invade Taiwan and upset the teetering Pacific balance. Myanmar and India won’t have any more. Declassified notes (last week) suggest China was lying about their intentions with Hong Kong since 1958 and Thatcher knew this in her confidential talks with Beijing in the 1980’s. The “economic” rout to taking over Taiwan seems only a way to bide time so that Beijing’s military could grow stronger and, thus, their invasion would be more likely to succeed. Economics were never a “first option”, but only a ploy.

Analysts who buy into to the “by fore if necessary” rhetoric could say that China’s “economic option” (AKA a ‘hostile takeover’) with Taiwan was “wishful thinking” or an “either way” approach. Through economic ties, so it could be said, Beijing could cripple Taiwan before the invasion. Thus, Taiwan could always cave, “but if not”, Beijing would be in a better position. The problem with this speculation, however, is that Beijing’s actions were always provocative.

The “if” in “by force if necessary” was a small “if”. Beijing was never polite enough to make Taiwan want to come willfully. Beijing made sure of that in their public response to Hong Kong’s Umberlla movement. Beijing, so it seems, always hoped that Taiwan would resist so the old Chinese autocrats would have the excuse they need to use military force to show off their power.

A wannabe should never flex his muscles in public, lest the world see how weak he is. But, wannabes don’t know this. China has been itching to flex its adolescent muscles for eons. The writing is on the wall. China’s evidential policy since the Chairman Mao Communist Party’s beginning was never “by force if necessary”, but “by force, and we’ll make it necessary”.

The environment and Israel share a spotlight in Taiwan’s and China’s headlines. Lines are being drawn across the Pacific sands and waters. Taiwan’s political revolution grows evermore foreseeably inevitable. Smog is on the horizon. Taiwan’s DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen, despised by China and likely Taiwan’s next president, makes headlines with America’s Heritage Foundation, indicating her rising notoriety. William Lai’s Tainan City Government (DPP) continues to crackdown on old school [AKA KMT crony] corruption in Taiwan’s de facto fascist corptocracy and national government.

China won’t like being chased out of the convenient shadows created by Chinese culture’s geriatric corruption anymore than Taiwan’s KMT will. The KMT is too feckless to hit back; Beijing, however, is too “young and dumb” to resist the urge.

The Prelude to Conflict is over. We’re already there. So commences, the Cadence, next week.


India will not hesitate to use Naval Power to protect economic interest in South China Sea

…India is more than glad to pick up the slack where others in ASEAN dropped…

U.S. Navy Urges Southeast Asian Patrols of South China Sea

…Not the best response from ASEAN, but it doesn’t matter, with India in the game.

Regional powers eye summit plan (Korea, China, Japan)

…Indicating two things: 1. They know they have a problem, 2. during mid conflict, their alliances and enmity could swiftly change either way.


Myanmar’s Fight With Rebels Creates Refugees and Ill Will With China

Retired PLA general ‘ashamed and scared’ by corruption in China’s military

Fighting the Water Giant: Lawsuits against Veolia in China

…A good look at the environmental and corruption problems in China.

PLA Operations against Precision Asymmetric Warfare

Israel in Asian Topics

What Israel Can Teach Taiwan

China’s evolving policy toward the Palestinian-Israeli conflict


The Coming Pressure on the DPP

…The best article to summarize the problem: Pandering to China feeds the monster, Washington is “stuck on stupid”

DPP will strive to maintain status quo: Tsai

…The controversy…

Tsai invites ‘talks’ on cross-strait policy

…And how she responded.

Ex-US official out of order: DPP

…Likely in response to stuff like this…

Schrage does not represent U.S. government: DPP

Taipei must reset diplomacy: ex-official

Lai defends Chiang statues’ relocation

…Tainan DPP Mayor William Lai is tearing down statues of Chiang Kai-shek, supposedly for being a tyrant who killed thousands, and Taiwan’s KMT-Nationalist party is not happy.

The Big Bad Blue Lying Machine is Back

..Good look at Taiwan’s internal politics and having to deal with the US

KMT keeps endorsing fake ‘1992 consensus’

High-Tech Waste Out of Control

…In-depth look at Taiwan’s corruption, how old-school Chinese are good at making numbers lie, old school “friends of KMT era” companies getting away with “feces”, and Tainan City (Mayor William Lai) prosecutors willing to stand up to nation-wide corruption. This raises questions of whether someone wanted to harm the drinking water all along because so much contributed to just that.

Hong Kong

Party emerges from Occupy to fight district elections

Hong Kong Federation of Students elects Nathan Law as secretary general


Syrian deputy minister seeks anti-terrorism cooperation with Japan


Australia a puzzling hotbed of Islamic State recruiting


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