China – Page 4 – Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 4, 2021

SymphonyOctober 4, 2021

This weekend saw yet another step-up in Chinese aggression—over 90 incursions in three days. While the world asks, “WTF!?” Taiwan rallies international support based on its IC chip industry. Taiwan supplies a good portion of the world’s semiconductors. If China invaded Taiwan, that could pretty much shut down the world’s supply of phones and computers. Coming from Taiwan, it’s almost a PR campaign: “We make your tech work; if China hurts us, then China hurts you too.”

This past weekend was a national holiday for Taiwan and China, celebrating the founding of their common government in history. It is not unusual for military saber rattling to step up about this time of year. That doesn’t mean China isn’t a threat. That means China used its easy excuse to make more threats.

The US responded by clearing its throat, reminding the world of its many military assets in the region. The Philippines wants the Mutual Defense Treaty with the US to have stronger language, clarifying just how much protection the US would bring. China thinks it has standing to object to a treaty for which it is not a party. And, China said Taiwan can expect more next year if the “collusion” between Taiwan and the US doesn’t stop. “Collusion”—that’s how China sees things. Perhaps the word “paranoid” has relevance somewhere.

In Encore

Encore of Revival: America, October 4, 2021

SymphonyOctober 4, 2021

The US faces economic challenges. We’re about to be done with pandemic inflation—that is inflation wrought to tamp down economic fallout from the pandemic, but arguably a pandemic of inflation in itself. We can’t keep interest rates this low and we can’t keep printing money. Britain has also about had it. The West is due for a change of pace. Enter Taiwan.

China’s incursion of Taiwan’s airspace made Matt Drudge’s top three headlines this weekend. With 93 Chinese military jet incursions in three days, Taiwan says its preparing for war because it must. And, Taiwan rallies allies like Australia with the fact that Taiwan houses one of the largest IC conductor suppliers in the world.

But, consider more than just the Chinese aggression. Consider the Western economic situation.

Chinese aggression and the freedom of Taiwanese sells well to the general public. But, compassion alone does not shape global politics. China is chasing a dream of respect—which isn’t as motivating as Western economies needing a turbocharger. China isn’t just making a miscalculation on its military capacity by winning respect as the world’s bully. China is making the grave error of provoking when the allies of its sworn enemy are hungry. All eyes in the West are about to shift toward a war with China every bit as swift and embarrassing as the Opium Wars.

While China takes center stage, the Supreme Court gears up to review Roe v. Wade and gun owner rights.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 27, 2021

SymphonySeptember 27, 2021

The Huawei heir apparent and CFO, Meng, walked. She confessed, then flew home. China immediately released the two Canadians both named Michael, which China had previously said were not detained in any connection to Meng; but they were both released in connection to Meng. The world saw what China did because China did something once again.

Meng gets “deferred prosecution”, meaning she’s guilty, but as a foreigner she goes home because of some arrangement such as her confession. Her charges will be dropped in December 2022, only on condition that she does not contest points connected to her case as to fact. That gives the US 14 months to use her confession as grounds for deciding which countries and big companies to sanction, et cetera.

If we use China’s promise about Hong Kong as any example, we can expect the heat to turn up so high that Meng eventually breaks her promise and charges resume. With what action from the US could come, China may expect her to break her promise and accuse the US, more or less, of lying. If she doesn’t do what China expects, she may wish she was still enjoying her prison-mansions in Canada. Either way, her goose is cooked. The world is learning even more about China. And, the West marches on with its goals.

This week, five more countries urged the UN to recognize Taiwan. That makes twelve out of fifteen formal allies.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 20, 2021

SymphonySeptember 19, 2021

China steps up expansion via Hong Kong elections. Seven editors are banned from Wikipedia on concerns of not acting in good faith and with relation to China. The US sails through the Taiwan Straight again, this time a destroyer. Taiwan wants more backup runways for fighter jets. Escalations only continue and no side shows any sign of backing down.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 13, 2021

SymphonySeptember 13, 2021

The easiest solution to China’s escalating situation in the South Sea is to enforce China’s own formal statements at face value. China says they respect other countries and do not want to militarize the South Sea. Leave it at that. Any disrespect toward other countries is not at the behest of Xijinping. Any militarization of the South Sea is not at the behest of Xijinping. Therefore, it must be true that Xijinping would not oppose anyone who stops, prevents, and reverses disrespect toward a country or militarization in the South Sea.

The West spends too much time arguing “what people really think”. It is as if Western governments want to read China’s mind to determine China’s intentions, but not entirely say so. The current result is an monitored, yet unchecked, escalation of military tension. “China can’t do this,” the West says. “We don’t do this,” China responds.

China’s response is golden. The West looks like the aggressor, especially in the minds of the Chinese people who live, “under the spell of the system,” as the missing Whitney Duan’s husband says. The West would do best to agree, “then China didn’t do this.” And then, take immediate policing action. After all, China has categorically implied that the man-made islands and battle cruisers are not operating within China’s purview. But, the West just keeps trying to read minds to solve problems. Since reading minds never happens, problems just keep growing.

Now, the Olympics will see a massive China boycott. If the Chinese knew a thing or two, they’d see that without the China Olympics, there would be one less way to boycott China. But, that’s a little complicated for some minds. And, the West prides itself on reading minds, after all.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 6, 2021

SymphonySeptember 6, 2021

Taiwan! Taiwan! Taiwan! Europe can say it enough. In fact, Europe talks about Taiwan almost as much as China does. Taiwan doesn’t need formal diplomatic relations to live rent free in the minds of global leaders around the globe—especially living rent free in the minds of Beijing leaders—especially in the mind of Xi Jinping. Don’t forget Japan.

Europe doesn’t want to be bullied by China. Every response from China is interpreted by the EU as a reason to disagree with almost anything China says. China is so hated, we are almost to the point where China could use reverse psychology to get what it wants. If China disagreed with everything it wants, the world might agree with everything China wants, just to spite China’s rhetoric. But, we are only 98% of the way there. The world doesn’t hate China quite that much. There’s still room for more.

But, look closely at what is happening in Europe. Lithuania deepens ties with Taiwan while the EU pounds the table. It is almost as if Europe is testing China by watching what happens with Lithuania. If that were so, none of the European rhetoric about Lithuania or China is real, yet. They’re just saying things to gauge China’s reaction. In other words, Europe is experimenting with China as the lab rat. That’s got to make shame-phobic leaders in Beijing feel great about themselves.