Hong Kong – Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 17, 2022

SymphonyJanuary 16, 2022

China is illegal. The US Department of State even says so. France even reports as such. This won’t exactly improve friendly relations across the Pacific. It’s actually a much larger step to an all out conflict.

Just over a year ago, November 2020, Western allies declared that China’s 1984 treaty with Britain, the basis for Hong Kong returning to China, was “permanently shredded”. The West has already declared that Hong Kong is no longer Chinese, effectively viewing China as an illegal occupying force which only needs a policing action to enforce and return Hong Kong to an already-decided British control. That’s what the West is thinking.

That decision came because certain lawmakers in Hong Kong were ousted because of a law originating not inside Hong Kong, but Beijing, violating what Britain meant by “a high degree of autonomy”. That law from Beijing was about “national security”. Now, Hong Kong’s government is expanding its definition of “national security”. Things are going less the way the West wants, giving more excuses for Western governments to rally Western taxpayers to support action against China.

Then, there is the snowless Olympics in Beijing. Not only are the Games boycotted by the West, they seem to be boycotted by the weather as well. Hatred for China only grows. As the Times said previously, awarding the 2022 Games to China was a setup.

China is in a global PR war with the West—and China is losing. The West knew this because China’s old “trump” card of media censorship won’t work on Western newspapers. And, Western governments know that China was so accustomed to turning off the camera that China never learned to simply smile for the camera. China just keeps on frowning.

Then, a Taiwanese F-16 went missing. It’s whereabouts and incident remain unknown. This could be—and certainly should be—a warning. Is this the 21st Century Reichstag or Lusitania? Did China sink the jet or could it be sabotage? If it was neither and truly was flight error, any ill will from Taiwan or the US could paint it to blame China. If China is smart, China will be afraid. After all, the West is much better at camera stunts than the Chinese. And, we live in a world controlled by what plays on camera, not what’s on a blank screen.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 20, 2021

SymphonySeptember 19, 2021

China steps up expansion via Hong Kong elections. Seven editors are banned from Wikipedia on concerns of not acting in good faith and with relation to China. The US sails through the Taiwan Straight again, this time a destroyer. Taiwan wants more backup runways for fighter jets. Escalations only continue and no side shows any sign of backing down.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 30, 2021

SymphonyAugust 30, 2021

Adversity creates alliance. If China’s goal was to unite the world, it is succeeding. Taiwan and Japan are getting cozier than ever, as are Taiwan and the EU. The shift is happening and maps may need to be redrawn.

The logical outcome is the UK returning all of Hong Kong—including the New Territories—to the British Commonwealth, while Taiwan, Japan, and likely a to-be-united Korea become at least commonwealths of a US-Canada reach. This would be valuable because it places liaison states near each other in the Far East. Britain would have a formal government in Hong Kong. The US and Canada would have nearby governments via Taiwan, Japan, and Korea. So, traveling between the US, Britain, and the rest of Asia could all be done through the Taiwan Strait and South Sea.

From a geo-political planning perspective, it would be well-organized. In light of the PDT Asia Mad Scientist Theorem, we could suspect this is being planned. Based on that, failed control systems in North Korea were not only meant to be implemented in China, but also to eventually annex North Korea under Seoul’s government. When later applied via China’s policy, that would trigger events that later subject all of China under a regional cooperation headed by Western governments from both sides of the Atlantic. In other words, North Korea is a test to oppress, fail, and unite under democracy. That test eventually applies to make China fail, then China would be forced to accept formal friendliness with Britain and the US via Taiwan-Japan-Korea states under the US and a Hong Kong province under Britain. The thought is chilling for Chinese Communists.

But, that’s where things are headed. When China objects to a country talking with Taiwan, no one cares anymore. China’s opinion has been reduced to global insignificance—a living hell for respect-obsessed Chinese leaders. Sending more and more military to places without global agreement, then defending itself with insignificant opinions, tightens the noose. China remains its own worst enemy, not only in military defeat, but also inviting its region of the world to be willfully subjected under Western governments.

It is as if the whole thing is planned, and China keeps dancing on cue.
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In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 23, 2021

SymphonyAugust 22, 2021

The White House’s distinction between Far Eastern allies and Afghanistan is consistent with the US strategic pivot during the Obama years: away from the Middle East, toward China. While China interprets the befuddled Afghanistan withdrawal as an indication that the US will not defend Far Eastern allies, the US interpretation implies a deeper concentration of military power. Each government’s policy indicates a deep belief in its own respective statement.

Taiwan’s president took the jab from Taiwan’s own, homegrown COVID vaccine. So, while Taiwan can claim one vaccine, Trump can claim all others. This further asserts Taiwan’s capability of standing on its own. Hong Kongers face the music, no matter the injustice. The world is watching. China’s response that Afghanistan is an indication that Taiwan should distrust the US serves mainly as a signal to Western readers that China indeed is a bully. Again, China doesn’t think they think so.

In Tempo

Cadence of Conflict: Asia August 16, 2021

SymphonyAugust 16, 2021

Taiwan continues to shine. Aide sent to Haiti after a devastating earthquake combines growing ties with Lithuania. China objects—and those are bad optics that China’s speech-control can’t control outside its borders.

China has been rewriting religion for years. Hymnals already read love for government rather than love for God. Now, we see more investigations against Hong Kong demonstrators who sought to uphold China’s agreement to democracy. In essence, China is investigating itself, indicating that China is divided against itself.

As a representative office exchange between Taiwan and Lithuania moves forward for this Fall, so do Taiwan’s de facto ties with the rest of the EU. China would rather object to this than be supportive of earthquake victims in Haiti. That is the obvious news narrative to take from what happened this week.

What’s not obvious is Taiwan’s prejudice against foreigners. Taiwan is having trouble building its submarines because of a shortage of engineering talent. Taiwan’s solution is to recruit more foreign talent. However, neither the problem nor the need for recruitment would exist if Taiwan had reciprocal regulations concerning immigration: protection of foreigner’s rights, five years leads to full citizenship, and dropping Taiwan’s ban on dual citizenship. To become a Taiwanese citizen, one must renounce original citizenship. America doesn’t require that. Taiwan does, then complains about losing allies to China. Does Lithuania’s government know how Taiwan treated its immigrants even to this day?

Had Taiwan treated others how they want to be treated, they wouldn’t have the trouble they do. And, Taiwan would not look like such a delicious target for war-thirsty China. The big danger is that US failure in Afghanistan on Sunday will encourage China’s calculus that an invasion of Taiwan is feasible. Combined with Taiwan’s self-inflicted weakness from discrimination against foreigners, China’s invasion question is more of a likelihood.

But, looking at even deeper strategy, we must consider China’s accusation that the US is playing games. If that were so, then failure in Afghanistan was staged by the US to provoke China into viewing the US as weaker than it is, and the US allowing non-reciprocal treatment of its own citizens in Taiwan would be intended to weaken Taiwan for strategic purposes as well.

Regardless of China’s conspiracy theory—which Chinese strategists never imagine to such length—the peaceful path would be for China to not take the invitation for attack and for Taiwan to treat others with respect. Like Jesus wanting to die on the Cross, a power that welcomes disrespect is up to something. But, the devil is none the wiser.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 12, 2021

SymphonyJuly 11, 2021

The case against China keeps sprawling—trade, currency, COVID, now SAARS. Understanding China is such a key in global public opinion, it has become a case against Biden that political grandstanding and demagoguery can use without spinning facts. But being a world where all bad press is censored press instead of good press, China won’t understand the trouble it wove itself into.

As if the list of global grievances wasn’t enough, China joins with North Korea in appearances and rhetoric. A Pacific skirmish involving the Chinese would drag in the Norks. That means that NATO allies and India could deal with the world’s menace, help the UK regain Hong Kong, recognize democracy in Taiwan, and unify the Korean peninsula in one move. While China and North Korea see their agreement as a strength, the West sees an opportunity.