Media and analysts miss the greatest takeaways from the debate. Arguments were based on who did what while already in office: All of the problems Trump solved and Biden didn’t, but says he will. And, their positions were radically different: Biden appealed to need for help while Trump appeared in-control at the helm.
The only times incumbents lose reelections are in the wake of gross incompetence (not seen since Carter) or gross broken campaign promises (not seen since HW Bush). If anything, Biden appears to already have broken the promises he is now making. That will not be enough to eject a promise-keeping incumbent.
In our last week before the election, polls have gone on record for predicting Biden as voices in media shifted their tone to a non-answer over who will win. Trump already won 2020 in 2015 when he announced. Many people don’t understand that. Many in media believe they decide election outcomes, not voters, so they don’t understand it either.
The greatest danger Trump always posed was that he would do too good of a job. He is the leader the Republican Party doesn’t deserve. They denounced him. He delivered the promised results they wouldn’t. Now, they will have respect they didn’t earn, plus a near supermajority in the Senate, control of the house, and overwhelming control of the Supreme Court. Power unchecked corrupts. Trump’s awesome work will get him reelected where he will continue more awesome work, but awesomeness can destroy us where it is unearned. And, that shadow is where the RNC stands.
The country will likely destabilize over the coming weeks. Americans will fight from anger on all sides. War with China could be seen as a convenient distraction from domestic dysfunction at a time when the US needs an excuse to put an unchecked Asian bully in its place. But, China doesn’t need to be embarrassed; it needs to be discipled. But, the US won’t be ready to disciple anyone until the US recovers its lost neighborly conscience. The US will find its conscience again, but it appears that we will only learn through trouble.