South China Sea – Page 4

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, February 1, 2016

Age of provocation. China warned everyone, this week. Soros had better not declare war on Chinese currency—or else. Taiwan had better not do a lot of things. The US had better not do a lot of things. Basically, the world “had better not”.

The Pacific conflict is reaching the point where China expects a Wold v China scenario. Whatever China is doing to make enemies is so powerful that not even Obama can stay low key—whether he wants to or not. Beijing’s “magnetic” personality is drawing all guns to point east.

Taiwan is beginning its political transition, not without its own rumors. The DPP opposition took the legislature today. The new president won’t be sworn in for a few months. But with the vast majority already in power in the legislature and local governments, the lame duck, Ma, is strung up by his webbing. All anyone can do about Taiwan is quack; the president, president-elect, and even Beijing.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 5, 2016

SymphonyJanuary 5, 2016February 1, 2019

No one is happier today than Beijing. More hoops for law-abiding gun owners to hop through means an easier cakewalk if China invaded it’s number one enemy. Without the logistic ability to invade the US, all of China’s antics in the Pacific, including landing the first plane on their man-made military islands, are dead in the water. Fortunately for Beijing, Obama is doing his part and with more persuasive words.

Perhaps Beijing could learn from Obama. Never argue with people who buy ink by the barrel. Apprehending Hong Kong publishers who speak out against you isn’t exactly the way to convince their readers that you don’t over-reach. While Obama introduced more background checks on guns, Beijing might consider background checks on books.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 21, 2015

SymphonyDecember 21, 2015

Tensions intensify in the China seas. Beijing knows it. Washington knows it. Everyone knows it.

Japan delayed a US cooperation step-up due to popularity issues. The Japanese public is tired of the US war machine in their back yard, however increasingly necessary Chinese patterns make such cooperation. Perhaps Japan suffers from US-imosed affluenza. Japan’s Diet is holding off until the public “figures out” that cooperation with the US is a good idea. Do they know something we don’t? What exactly is it that will happen to convince the Japanese voters to change their minds? The Diet seems to think that we’ll find out soon enough.

Taiwan’s historic election is fast approaching. Debate formats have been agreed to. The new likely party is recognizing progress from the sinking establishment. China’s answer to a new political power remains unknown.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 14, 2015

SymphonyDecember 14, 2015

As elections push forward in Taiwan and Malaysia, China faces it’s own political issue: Military reform.

The report from Reuters demonstrates two things. Firstly, we see that China’s military does, in fact, need reform. This is evidenced by the 300k military jobs cut since September. With an obviously larger shakeup coming, it is clear that the change is necessary, given China’s implied military status quo.

Secondly, we learn that China needs to sell the need for reform to its own military, thereby implying that, while the reform is necessary, many remain yet to be convinced that it is.

Generally speaking, growing assertiveness while implementing reform where there is no current invasion underway is typically an attempt to spread oneself too thin. This not only relates to the failing political establishment in Taiwan and Malaysia, but generic maritime strategy in the Pacific.

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 2, 2015

SymphonyNovember 2, 2015

In pre-WWII terms, last week, North Korea tried a “Hitler” in Southern seas and got sent home running. This week, the US did a sail by and China pulled a “France”. It’s clear who’s boss of the Pacific.

At least that’s what the Pentagon will think.

China’s response, though proof that it lacks strength, neither proves weakness nor will. Chinese are calculating and polite. Chinese conflicts do not escalate slowly; the pressure builds slowly, then the conflict erupts faster than American’s can blink.

But there is more going on with indirect communication, and Beijing is learning, for better or worse. In all likelihood, Beijing expected the US to react like most Chinese do to new power’s assertion. Specifically, they expected either silence or some kind of neighboring buildup. Remember, China is the land of the Great Wall. They built the islands with a fleet, they probably expected the US to confront them either with a fleet or not at all. · · · →

In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 12, 2015

SymphonyOctober 12, 2015

China didn’t make any friends this week. Beijing spies on every street corner with a service literally named “Skynet”.

The Pentagon wants a strong Taiwan. The US Navy plans to challenge China’s man-made military airport-seaport islands. Most people don’t know exactly where the islands are since they aren’t listed on many maps. But if you happen to have a recent Chinese passport, the islands would fall within the nine-dash line, along with Taiwan, parts of the Philippines, and a number of other territories we thought belonged to other countries.

Local Pacific politics are another big question mark this week. Malaysia’s PM is having “royal” trouble, literally. Taiwan’s failing KMT-Nationalist party seems to be cannibalizing their own Presidential front-runner. Who knows what will happen or even if it will matter.

Old guard and Establishment parties are facing the masses en masse. It’s not just happening in the Pacific, but also in the Americas and Europe. · · · →