Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 15, 2021

Taiwan is a peaceful island of peaceful people. The Taiwanese calm demeanor often plays tricks on the minds of Americans and Chinese. Every day, Taiwanese put up with enormous nonsense and harassment, yet manage to carry on with an authentic smile. They don’t just putt-putt forward, they charge forward with energy, even in the face of disquieting conflict. Their solution to conflict is to “ignore” it away; and that is the Taiwanese daily story.

And, that should put fear into any enemy with half a brain.

When roused to anger, the Taiwanese are more fierce and more dangerous than Americans. That is admittedly a large claim, but the world is about to witness. Their strength and willingness to fight can be seen in schoolyard spats. The calm, carry-on manners are enforced only by a monstrous willpower. Once peace is rejected by an opponent, that same great monster that held near impossible peace rages to war. That someone has the stamina to maintain peace so long should terrify anyone with half a brain.

But, it doesn’t even phase the Chinese. There’s your investment clue.

Nonetheless, Silicon Valley continues to seek investment in China, despite unified opposition from the two most controversial Republican and Democratic presidents ever, Trump then Biden. Even the US Chamber of Commerce lobbies for American companies to invest more money into China, according to Wall Street Journal.

It seems as the US brings manufacturing back home, China offers more candy to hypnotize the children of the Valley. Without any parents around it seems like it would work, were it not for Uncle Sam.

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Encore of Revival: America, November 15, 2021

America’s divide is staggering. Neither Trump nor Biden divided America; our difference in values did. We were divided since the Pilgrims arrived and signed a Compact where Christians and non-Christians would work together. But, both overreached and tried to boss the other—both tried to force their values on everyone—whether classic Bible-wielding Christians, those who believe in no god, those who believe in every god, those who believe in one kind of marriage, and those who believe in any kind of marriage.

For many years, we worked in peace to make it through our differences together. But having grown up, we now see our true colors. Many of us grew up in families and circles that go against our true values. People switch loyalties. After the last two presidential elections, fewer people think of themselves as independents, and many Democrats and Republicans hopped to the other side of the fence.

We can’t blame leaders for our division. Instead, we must look to lines of thought that promote peace. America does not need to help Taiwan as much as America must absolutely learn from Taiwan. That island nearly half the size of Lake Michigan with a population larger than Florida hosts the most peaceful and yet resilient people in the world. COVID theatrics—either way—never worked on the Taiwanese, who calmly stood together through it all. Now, safety restrictions are lifting and life is nearly back to normal without a problem.

As America unites against the self-made enemy known as China, Taiwan is plopped in the limelight. While some Americans will see another poster boy on whom to lavish messiah complex -driven “compassion”, some may see the peaceful people whom America can still become like.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 8, 2021

China tripped the alarm. Revelations of a US aircraft carrier -shaped target in China’s Taklamakan Desert doesn’t exactly resemble a friendly trick-or-treat visit. Congress is upset, calling this the closest we’ve ever been. Washington tries to use calm rhetoric, saying they don’t foresee problems until 2024—it used to be 2025. But these days, they leave more and more room to avoid being wrong should a scuffle go ballistic in the Pacific.

The tech industry certainly is paying attention. Intel is building at five sites, three in the US, one in Ireland, and one in Israel. At the same time, the US government is questioning chip makers about their supply chains. One of those is TSMC, in Taiwan. Now, Congress wants to spend $52B on subsidies for chip makers inside the US. The message is clear: America is getting ready for a China-initiated disruption in the chip supply chain, the largest part in the world of which goes through Taiwan.

By the look of it, 2025 is the year when China will both be militarily dangerous and, for the chip industry, will no longer matter. While some news outlets cast China’s economy in a positive light, others show deep reasoning to sound the economic alarms. It looks like China is getting into a tighter and tighter pinch, and China’s economic response is the same as its response to political disfavor: marketing.

This week, the EU says it has unanimous support to strengthen relations with Taiwan—specifically because of China’s aggression.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 1, 2021

China has been told, then told again. This week, China was told again again again. The EU gave a blistering rebuke to China’s unsolicited three cents about what other governments call their offices. Specifically, Taiwan is labeling it’s representative office in Lithuania as “Taiwan”. China recalled and expelled diplomats with Lithuania in wake of the matter.

Moves like this show the disturbing psychology guiding the Chinese. Reducing communication does not improve China’s position; it diminishes China’s position. So, why would China do that for anything other than histrionic reasons? The recall of its office in Lithuania resembles Napoleon storming out of his own cabinet meeting just before he fell from power. Moreover, analysis such as this does not cause the Chinese mind to reconsider; the Chinese see the warnings as conjured propaganda without substance.

As if the EU’s response over Lithuania wasn’t enough, US Secretary of State Blinken told Chinese Foreign Minister Wang where the bear crapped in the buckwheat. China’s been aggressive; that’s bad. Single-sided—AKA “unilateral”—action to alter the status quo with Taiwan—AKA “invasion”—is unacceptable. The US will intervene. This may be news to the ears of those in China’s echo chamber where selective listening is the norm. Yes, China may be unaware that the US plans to respond if China invaded Taiwan, even after all that has happened. China’s frame of mind could come partly from three decades of countries letting China push them around. But all of a sudden, a fresh wind blew through the G-20.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 25, 2021

Taiwan was thrust into a position without being asked. In 1971, the United Nations removed the Taipei-seated government known today as “Taiwan” and switched to recognizing the Beijing-based government known as “China”. The Taiwanese were elbowed out of the global forum. Now, the US is working to bring Taiwan back in, but not the same way as in 1971. If the trend continues, China and Taiwan would both have a place in the General Assembly, though no government would admit that outcome quite yet.

At the same time Washington swoons the world and Taiwan toward each other, we hear the old fashioned, non-Trump, typical vibrato from the Biden administration. Biden’s own China ambassador nominees says China can’t be trusted. That kind of diplomacy is rooted in neither Trump’s success-at-any-cost focused strategy nor the moderate go-along-to-get-along mantra. Washington Democrats have read the polls and calculated that hating on China is popular with the electorate. This administration will blame and shame China more than Trump. Expect a WWI style war reparations ending to the coming scuffle, not the rebuilding WWII effort MacArthur did in conquered Japan.

Afghanistan’s failure is a false signal to China, but the Beijing echo chamber sees it as a true sign the US is weak. They don’t get it. America wanted out of Afghanistan. And, Americans won’t want post-Afghanistan disaster to hit Taiwan. China is an election campaign whipping boy, but can’t figure out that because China doesn’t know what an election really is.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 18, 2021

According to Chinese and US claims, China has a high-orbit, hypersonic missile that can hit a target within 24 miles. And, that’s why China is the new boss of the world and everyone else should hate America. The end.

But, that’s not the end in the mind of Taiwan or the US Pentagon. This week, Taiwan asked the Pentagon to speed up its delivery of 22 F-16s. They were expected around 2029, but Taiwan claims China could invade by 2025. China may not agree to wait until 2025, especially since the new Communist hypersonic missile has been tested and even written about in the Global Times. All we need is a Global Times article to announce that China is strong enough to invade Taiwan at anytime, then the People’s Liberation Army would be fully prepared to show Confucian Communist love to the whole world.

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