Cadence of Conflict: Asia, February 29, 2016

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, February 29, 2016

A Chinese official, Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi (王毅), has become the first to recognize Taiwan’s Constitution. He says that the president elect, Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), should “abide by it”. Tsai has promised to declassify documents about the 228 Massacre, which the Taiwanese observed in memory this past weekend. The three day weekend of Feb 28 (2/28) stands as a blight on the face of Chiang Kai-shek, who founded the recently defeated KMT-Nationalist party and slaughtered 10,000 to 30,000 people in Taiwan, depending on who you ask, during the time of his flight from the revolting Communists. Statues of the “Hitler of Taiwan” were defaced throughout Taiwan over the weekend. Officials are “not yet” pressing charges.

While Taiwan exposes more truth and topples statues of tyrants, China is finding vengeance on booksellers. The times are ripe with contrast. Nations in the region see anything but peace in our time.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, February 8, 2016

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, February 8, 2016

TPP passed. That’s another Obama deal likely be reviewed by his soon-to-be successor. And that time is coming soon and certain. Not only are the United States proving their plurality of powers, so is the Pacific. Taiwan’s earthquake was a scary demonstration.

The 4:00am Kaohsiung 6.4 was indeed scary to locals at the many wreckage sites. But it was scarier for older structures, including political and economic. A strange selection of buildings fell while most were unharmed. Dishonesty is under investigation by no less than four prosecutors. And Taiwan’s spirit is stronger than it ever has been, something Beijing has never stared more clearly in the eye.

Controversial as TPP is, and as likely as it will be altered, it nails a big “No China Allowed” sign on the tree fort. With Taiwan proving its own, investigating bad dealings likely to implicate Mainland cronyism, further weakening the lame duck Nationalists even further… Even Obama’s “never let a good crisis go to waste” policy must be reviewed. Strength in the Pacific is forcing strength on the rim. The conflict is turning the tide.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, February 1, 2016

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, February 1, 2016

Age of provocation. China warned everyone, this week. Soros had better not declare war on Chinese currency—or else. Taiwan had better not do a lot of things. The US had better not do a lot of things. Basically, the world “had better not”.

The Pacific conflict is reaching the point where China expects a Wold v China scenario. Whatever China is doing to make enemies is so powerful that not even Obama can stay low key—whether he wants to or not. Beijing’s “magnetic” personality is drawing all guns to point east.

Taiwan is beginning its political transition, not without its own rumors. The DPP opposition took the legislature today. The new president won’t be sworn in for a few months. But with the vast majority already in power in the legislature and local governments, the lame duck, Ma, is strung up by his webbing. All anyone can do about Taiwan is quack; the president, president-elect, and even Beijing.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 19, 2016

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 19, 2016

Victory! Taiwan finally defeated the old enemy of the East that the Chinese Communists could not. The KMT-Nationalist party has rarely faced such a stunning defeat. The enemy of the revolution, murderer of Taiwanese and thieves of Asia’s greatest assets, the witch of the East met her end at the hands, not of soldiers and explosives, but of democracy.

Beijing would have worldwide respect in declaring victory and normalizing relations. But the land of Sun Tzu seems to have forgotten the basics of war: If one government controls an entire region, then an enemy only need take-out the central government for the entire land to fall. If Taiwan were a Chinese province, China would be less safe. As an ally that China itself could not take—an attack against China would be unwise for any adversary. But, again, Beijing seems more bent on delusions of pride than real safety. The best kept secret about respect is not that it must be earned and not bestowed, but that those who state their respect rarely mean it. Having respect of others and having others show respect are entirely different things. This is a lesson the KMT-Nationalists still haven’t seemed to learn.

China had it’s own streak this week. More than one teary-eyed apology cross the air-waves. The world continues to see China for what it is while Beijing counts more ill will an indication of progress. Perhaps Beijing is right.

Taiwan’s confidence in voting overwhelmingly for a political party that will not cow-tow to China’s hostile takeover agenda sends a message to China. While the messengers in Beijing may not deliver, the people of China read it loud and clear, perhaps for the first time: A single government can have a new political party and the people do not need to bend to the dictates of the old establishment.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 11, 2016

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 11, 2016

China’s economic shaking may have had more of a placebo than newspapers let on. Devalued Chinese yuan does not contribute to lower oil prices as much as the decisions of the Arabs. Even if it has a factor, lower oil prices are healthier for economies as it keeps costs lower. Perhaps China’s slowdown is good for everyone except China, and of course, Africa.

The disappearance of Hong Kong bookseller, Lee Bo, has Hong Kongers in a tizzy, still not as severe as the Umbrella Movement that ended just over a year ago. Much like the Umbrella Movement, while protests will result in little change concerning Beijing’s Hong Kong SAR policy, the world is evermore aware that there is not change.

Taiwan is set for a historic election. The opposition DPP is likely to win the presidency and likely the legislature, which would be a first. Wanting to be “friends” with Beijing has so far been the goal of the DPP and the Taiwanese, but would be seen as an insult of Beijing which wants “reunification” instead. The consequences could echo Taiwan’s first presidential election in 1996 when China shot a missile across the island.

With the tensions in the area, particularly the flyovers and bomb testing in the Koreas and protests in Hong Kong, the foreseeable diplomatic response of the White House would be in spite of an American public that is evermore aware of China’s methods and nonetheless more determined to answer.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 5, 2016

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 5, 2016

No one is happier today than Beijing. More hoops for law-abiding gun owners to hop through means an easier cakewalk if China invaded it’s number one enemy. Without the logistic ability to invade the US, all of China’s antics in the Pacific, including landing the first plane on their man-made military islands, are dead in the water. Fortunately for Beijing, Obama is doing his part and with more persuasive words.

Perhaps Beijing could learn from Obama. Never argue with people who buy ink by the barrel. Apprehending Hong Kong publishers who speak out against you isn’t exactly the way to convince their readers that you don’t over-reach. While Obama introduced more background checks on guns, Beijing might consider background checks on books.

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