Cadence of Conflict: Asia, March 18, 2019

Drama and theatrics! The US might be in a position to enforce the Magnitsky Act against China. Now, like Taiwan before, the US is taking the pot shots. It compares to Tony Stark’s Iron Man tossing rocks at a tank to provoke the tank before obliterating the tank.

Talk of talks about trade with China while focusing on more military money for what Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan calls “China, China, China”—that’s not an effort to make peace with a country that wants it, but an effort to irritate a not-so-closet adversary into justifying a retaliatory victory. China will see the US as two-faced, never figuring out that the US is intentionally getting under Beijing’s skin because the Chinese don’t know how easily irritable their view of themselves makes them.

Then, there’s Korea. In a retelling from The Godfather III, we might say that Kim wouldn’t do this without backing. By rumbling about nuking up again, Kim is flexing muscles that shouldn’t be flexed—but only would be flexed if someone, say like Xi Jinping, were whispering support in his ear. More is going on than even Trump may be revealing, even if Kim’s rumblings are all for show. If tensions rise between the US and Northern Korea, China would be the likely backstage culprit. That would mean that tension in the Koreas would justify US action against China—yet another tank rock to toss.

Then, we have “melo-theatrics” worse than “damn lies”: statistics.

If Trump’s poll numbers were to suddenly plummet, nothing would bring them back like a victory against evermore unpopular China—now at 41% in America. That makes Trump, 47% as of Tuesday, more popular than China. If House Democrats were to take action against Trump, that might encourage China that he would not be able to sustain action against China—when actually a victorious action against China would bring up his popularity to make him politically immune to House Democrats. The freedom and opinion -driven dynamics of American politics eludes Chinese strategists, another front on which Beijing is likely to miscalculate.

If Trump’s popularity were to slip just before a conflict with China, it could have been intentional—as a means to provoke China into thinking that China is stronger against the US than it is. But, China will never figure it out, like the cat chasing the laser pen’s dot—they never figure it out.

(Tuesday, March 12, 2019) Daily Presidential Tracking Poll | Rasmussen
…47% approval


North Korea may suspend nuclear talks with ‘gangster-like’ U.S.: diplomat | Yahoo – Reuters

North Korea may break off US talks and resume missile tests, official says | BBC News

The Hanoi Summit – We Asked 79 Experts What Happens Next in U.S.-North Korea Relation | The National Interest


Americans’ Favorable Views of China Take 12-Point Hit | Gallup

China denies existence of ‘concentration camps’ | Sky News

Why China Silenced a Clickbait Queen in Its Battle for Information Control | NY Times

US envoy calls for probe into China’s ‘horrific’ Muslim camps | NY Post

Xinjiang camps will ‘gradually’ disappear: China | Channel News Asia

U.S. wants to keep tariff threat in China talks: Lighthizer | BNN Bloomberg

Outcome of trade talks with China remains in doubt, top US trade official Robert Lighthizer tells senators | SCMP

More Americans see China’s rising economic power as ‘critical threat’ to US | SCMP

US mulls measures against human rights violators in China’s Xinjiang | CNBC


New U.S. military budget focuses on ‘China, China, China’ over current wars and Russia | Japan Times

Forget the Mexico border, the new US military budget is focused on ‘China, China, China’ | SCMP

Pentagon budget focuses on threat posed by China | Taipei Times

Joint Chiefs Chairman: Google ‘Is Indirectly Benefiting The Chinese Military’ | CBS SF Bay Area

Triple Threat: The New F-15X Super Eagle Could Help the F-22 and F-35 Dominate the Skies | National Interest

Blast From the Past: Why the New F-15X Could Dominate the Skies | National Interest

A Waste of Time?: Why Does the Air Force Need ‘New’ F-15Xs When it Has the F-35? | The National Interest

Watchdog: Pentagon doesn’t know where $2.1B was spent on F-35 parts | TheHill