Encore of Revival: America, January 1, 2021

Republican leaders continue to lecture a public which no longer trusts them. They want the American people to “move on”, apparently without knowing that would mean moving on “from them”. But, people can’t move on when they are convinced of election fraud anymore than we can move on with unaddressed police killing.

The solution is to restore confidence in what has well-earned doubt. Government doesn’t want to do that, but only “solve” problems by making more problems that will gain more distrust. The public has a breaking point. We are getting very close to that point. And, both parties are both stepping on the gas when they should both be stepping on the breaks.

Trump plans to present more election fraud in defense at his Senate trial. Chief Justice Roberts has made it clear he doesn’t want to hear any evidence of election fraud—he shares that view with several other judges. Remember, the Court always votes in favor of the Court. It is not impossible for Roberts to walk into the Senate, sit down, declare, “The plaintiff is not the incumbent; dismissed,” swing his gavel, and walk out. With Trump’s intended defense, Robert’s only other option would be to shut down presentation of evidence while the nation watches. That is, unless he has changed his mind on hearing evidence.

No less than 45 Republican Senators voted that the trial itself is unconstitutional. If any of them vote to remove Trump from an office he no longer holds, they would have declared themselves unconstitutional in their own opinions and thus hasten the growing distrust of the RNC. So you see, Roberts and the Republicans are in a tight spot.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 28, 2020

Anymore, it’s not only bad news about China, but continued action in both military and trade. The pressure Washington puts on Beijing keeps finding new ways to keep turning up. Sanctions continue to increase. Military attention rises. And, Japan puts pressure on Biden to decry the “aggressive China”, calling Taiwan the next, likely target.

Just the same, Taiwan continues as the poster boy, especially with the pandemic China takes the blame for. Just when the Chinese government thinks they get a break, the opposition simply moved and grew. Western powers have effectively sneaked up on the Chinese, whose policies isolate them from the experience necessary to understand Western thinking. Western news audiences are being conditioned to support military action against China, no matter which party advocates it. As news watchers, we must see this trend as it has snowballed over the last decade. The Western world is moving toward war against China as Russia remains safely out of the spotlight.

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Encore of Revival: America, December 28, 2020

Trump signed the $600 stimulus bill, but with a “rescission” order. In other words, he is forcing Congress to discuss and deliberate on spending certain items or else the bill won’t become law for another 45 days.

Trump’s method is ingenious, though many worms in Washington wrongly project their own motives of immaturity or ego. After all the squawk Trump gave about $2,000 checks, the people expect more money and Congress has an easy way to give more money. Either way, many Democratic voters will thank Trump. If the bill is not revised to give Americans more money, Congress will become very unpopular. Violence only increases; consider Nashville. At a time when Congress may need to choose the president due to a failed electoral college, Congress needs popularity anywhere it can get it.

Yes, Congress may indeed end up choosing the president. Senators and representatives from any of 18 likely states could easily dispute the electoral college. Then the Senate, led by the man running for Vice President, would oversee the discussion. If discussion delays, the electoral college fails and is no longer relevant. Senators and state delegates in the House, both dominant Republicans, would then have to choose Trump and Pence to avoid political suicide. With Trump having played his recent popularity game over the economic stimulus, things seem to trend in that direction.

Thanks to Trump, Congress has the power to increase spending and choose Trump as the next president, and Congress has such a mandate from the people. But, historically, consider the factor of surprise. History is always full of surprises and unexpected victories. By the expectations of conventional wisdom, which usually leads people to be surprised by reality, Biden’s victory seems too non-surprising not to not happen.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 21, 2020

Readers still can’t get a break from bad news of China. More Chinese companies are added to the notorious “entities list”. The WHO sends a team to China, which isn’t exactly wonderful press. China is the biggest military threat. The US Navy along with the Coast Guard must reshape its strategy to protect against the Chinese. Trump even blames the Chinese for a recent cyber attack.

As China continues in headlines as the villain, Taiwan is evermore adorable. The Taiwanese plan to become their own military supplier and submarine maker, not as much dependent on the US. They hope to get so many awesome weapons of their own, other nations will want to buy weapons from the Taiwanese, who can defend themselves against the great China, after all. As if that’s not enough to irritate Beijing, Washington will start calling Taiwan’s not-embassy by “Taiwan” instead of “Taipei Economic and Cultural”.

But, how serious is Taiwan about its own defense? While Washington cozies up to Taiwan with somewhat more, semi-respectful names, America’s envoy to Taiwan is still called “American Institute in Taiwan”. And, as much as Taiwan claims to want technology and good relations with other nations, xenophobic immigration laws are still on the books. Immigrants to Taiwan vs immigrants from Taiwan have a much more difficult path and the ratios are insultingly low. Very few Westerners can contribute to Taiwan’s economy, technology, and goal of English as a second official language with these unchanged restrictions in Taiwan’s immigration policies. Nearly all changes in Taiwan and in Washington go little beyond symbolic.

Washington is mostly talk. Taiwan is too ambivalent to love actually. And, Beijing is easily insulted. The trends aren’t subtle anymore. They used to be five years ago, but they’re just not subtle anymore—quite the opposite.

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Encore of Revival: America, December 21, 2020

Trump has a realistic path to the presidency. Rules for the electoral college allow for discussion and dispute which could delay finalization of the vote past January 18. If Congress has not approved the electoral college vote by then, the electoral college fails and the election defaults to Congress. Then, the Senate chooses the vice president and the House chooses the president by state delegates—of which there are more Republican. At that point, it would be political suicide for even Romney to vote against Trump. All that has to happen is delay in the Senate—something the Senate is very good at when it wants to be. With 18 states having filed a suit with the Supreme Court, such a delay is quite likely.

Far more interesting are the public narratives. All mainstream news, including Fox News, continue to push finality—the idea that the election is over and decided, when it is in fact in dispute and when it has not yet been finalized. The Trump team responds by pushing evidence—strangely changed rules, flagrantly broken rules, and endless testimonies. As a result, Biden voters are being conditioned to believe the election is over while Trump voters are being conditioned to believe it should not be over. The only assurance is limbo.

If Trump wins, the Democratic base is preconditioned for nation-wide meltdown while the Republican base is preconditioned for the in-your-face exhilaration worthy of a Rocky movie ending. That leads to the greatest danger: an overly-trusted Republican Party. That was Trump’s danger from the onset.

The suspicious part is how well the Democrats in Washington played along to make it all possible. Sooner or later, people will figure it out. Some are already starting to.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 14, 2020

Hit pieces against China are coming out as if from an avalanche. More dangerous, they are coupled with Western plans of military expansion in China’s back yard. From Xinjiang teens to disappearing journalists to Australian wine to spies in America to colleges—to a global virus pandemic—Western readers have no rest from bad news of China.

The equation has been there and in play. America’s election appears stolen to 75% of Republican voters and 30% of Democrats. Elections require agreement on results in order to function. Lack of agreement on a trustworthy election is unusual as it is staggering. That’s a mandate for Trump to take drastic action, deny Biden’s inauguration, and take measures to remain in office that can’t avoid national inflammation.

As inevitable American conflict in January comes into closer view coupled with such bad press on China, the US strategy in the West Pacific is more and more difficult to deny. China was always the perfect distraction from the mess at home. The problem is that the American populous no longer responds as usual. A national attack may not have the uniting effect it once did—at least not uniting enough to keep any president in office in the face of an election so disputed.

Taiwan continues the role as the “China virus” poster boy. The Taiwanese handle things so well, don’t they. Strict rules on breaking quarantine—punishing a foreigner with thousands in fines for walking in the hallway outside his room for eight seconds—but Taiwanese officials forgot to lock the quarantine door because the world is supposed to believe Taiwan is so careful, right?

At some point, it should become obvious that we are playing a game of charades with who is good and bad—or at least on who is how good and how bad. As China’s role is to be the common enemy for divided Americans and a divided West to unite against, China’s big mistake—over decades and to this day—was to play that role all too gladly. A shoe was made and China chose to fit it.

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