The government shutdown is good for Trump and good for the wall. He said what he meant and he meant he wasn’t bluffing. Good, old fashion follow-through is one of DC’s lost virtues. If the current budget isn’t passed by the start of the new 116th Congress on January 3, then it will die. It already has approval of the White House and has passed the House. The quickest way to end the government shutdown is for the Senate to pass the bill.
Ultimately this is a game of “chicken”. Either way, we should expect whining everyday. The key to Congress surviving a government shutdown is the theater of talking everyday as if “today’s the day” that the government will reopen. It’s somewhat akin to the act that Democrats and drive-by news anchors put on about how “today’s the day” when they will find the “silver bullet” to stop Trump.
There is no such silver bullet, not even today.
The main actors rising above the dust are the Kushners. Jared and Ivanka are drafting deals and growing coalitions, no matter their father’s opponents. Their progress should be bigger news.
So, over Christmas, the worms of Capitol Hill take pot shots at each other and the president is referred to as a child for sticking to his promises, just as Clinton did when he vetoed the budget. One of the best kept secrets about government shutdowns is that the government doesn’t actually shut down. To some, that’s a disappointment. Even Mueller’s investigation continues, but the Supreme Court might stuff coal in his stocking. The holiday season has many more surprises yet to come.
While China would attempt to send the US out of its backyard by shocking the US with an invasion of Taiwan, that motive in itself would not be enough to push China to war. Beijing believes that controlling more territory is the solution to current problems with its own territory. In urban terms, it would be like believing the reason you have problems in your home is because you don’t own the home nextdoor—you deserve to own it, after all; so take it, “by force if necessary.” That part of Chinese culture—needing to occupy more surroundings in order to solve problems at home, rather than after solving problems at home—is the part of the Beijing mindset that will actually push China to invade. The time of the invasion will come when Beijing believes that solving its problems at home—specifically with Western press and free speech—can wait no longer. Then, China will invade Taiwan while genuinely believing that all of China’s problems within its current borders will thus vanish over night.
But, the US doesn’t think the way Beijing thinks the US thinks. While many Americans will be surprised by China’s invasion of Taiwan, Beijing will be surprised even more by the American electorate’s response to support recompense against China.
In Chinese media, a Chinese Air Force colonel’s recommendation that PLA Navy ships ram US Navy ships is not an actual recommendation for strategy as much as it is an attempt at repulsive rhetoric. Chinese culture presumes that a public suggestion is an indirect warning with no intention of follow-through, and because it has no intention of follow-through, it is therefore a “powerful-polite” way of attempting to tell the US to leave. That is how cultural, indirect communication with the Chinese works. Though it is possible that the Chinese might become enraged enough to follow this action by ramming US ships at sea, it would take less rage for China to decide to invade Taiwan. From Beijing’s view, unlike retaking the well-deserved Taiwan, ramming a US ship would be an actual assault. If the Chinese-American war begins with a rammed ship, that would indicate a very angry China.
Every accusation against Trump so far sets a precedent to indite James Comey for refusing to prosecute Hillary for worse crimes. Trump’s actual crime was unwritten, that he threatened the comfortable cash cow machine run by a parasitic establishment accurately referred to as “the swamp”. These increasingly petty, evermore numerous, and parabolically dramatic accusations will not end in turning votes against Trump, but toward him. The only turnings against will be the masses revolting against the establishment for its attacks against Trump and a revolt against the media that reports the attacks as “fair”. The public will see this as quite unfair because of greater priorities going unmentioned, including a multi-million dollar hush-slush fund in Congress.
So, the swamp’s machine attacked a dirty lawyer and sentenced him to prison. Now, that lawyer has suddenly turned to saint because he wants to get out of jail by speaking against his own client—a president hated by the same swamp. Can a lawyer that the DOJ has worked so hard to imprison as a sleeze bag suddenly be deemed a credible witness without any ill motives? Connect the dots. The swamp always wants everything both ways.
The swamp is indeed ramping up the assault against Trump, but not because of any new position of strength; the swamp is on attack because the swamp is desperate. What we’re about to see in the next two years will be Kavanaugh all over again, only this time it will push Trump to re-election, better than before.
Then we have the Brexitexit. Questions needs to be asked about what connections nay-voters in Parliament have to Brussels. British politics work differently from American. Prime Minister Chamberlain allowed Hitler to rise in power while Parliament kept Winston away. Once the feckless mess grew intolerable, the king had to intervene. After Winston won the war—with the help of some extremely profitable former colonies in America that the Britons claim they carelessly misplaced—the Britons ousted Winston after his warnings that Russia was a rising danger. No doubt many in Great Britain will forget their frustration with past attempts to unite Europe, or the recent attempt—the EU—in squandering British tax dollars on socialist promises to solve self-made problems, such as more recently seen in France.
One of the few wise prime ministers, Margret Thatcher, said, “The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.” Now, the EU has run out of the Britons’ money and “will allow” the Britons to stay in if they want—and some Britons are actually talking about staying in. The American way—which defeated the Nazis for the British—would be for British Parliament to pass its own terms first, giving the EU the ultimatum. If May wants to keep her job, she should tell Parliament, “Give me whatever terms you accept, then I will defend them before Brussels.” But, that would require the strong spine of a cowgirl, not the tender skin of true gentlemen. There are many smart people in Great Britain, just not any that we can see from the decisions being made right now.
The way things look, America will need to come to the rescue of our British brothers yet again. Given America’s improving situation, it looks like we’ll be able.
The “Huawei arrest” sends yet another a irritatingly mixed message to China. China believes that a “strong response” concerning Taiwan will convince the US to back away from support for Taiwan. Conveniently for China, the recent provincial elections in Taiwan seem encouraging and Beijing has reached out to Taiwanese cities that just elected pro-Beijing party candidates.
Premier William Lai intends to resign at the “right time”. Could that time be what is necessary so he can run for president? Taiwanese politics are quite unpredictable. All we should expect is a series of surprises before, during, and after 2020. Considering where things stand in the world, we must remember that there is no way the UK could be on Taiwan’s side, especially since the UK has concerns about Taiwanese fisherman illegally killing dolphins as shark bait. With opportunity seeming to open, and the increased possibility of the loud-spoken, pro-independence William Lai to run for office, Beijing may be feeling put in an ever tightening situation that compels action.
As concerned as the Chinese are about security, they are far more concerned about insult. Without any sympathy from Western news audiences, an extradition of the Huawei executive from Canada to the US could push China over the edge. China believes that its horrific past justifies its conduct today. It is only a matter of time before Beijing decides that a strike against Taiwan, supported by cooperation with Taiwanese city governments, would send the US out of the region. Taiwan may not be seen by Beijing as the irritant of tensions, but the solution to them. The US might have a different opinion.
The theory presented on September 10 and November 19 proved useful enough to predict White House Chief of Staff John Kelly’s departure. No one announces in advance that someone is leaving—before the departure, without also announcing a replacement. Nobody cares about a boss whose boss already announced would be leaving. That’s how to cripple any malevolent powers of an administrator that can’t be quickly unplugged, but needs to go—and do so without raising suspicion that the administrator did anything wrong. Even in his dismissal—not a “retirement”—Kelly fits the bill as the author of the “New York Times essay”, right down to getting tossed out in a way that no one would suspect a darned thing.
France is in trouble. The president who snubbed Trump has fallen into disfavor with his own people. This largely comes down to grandiose promises made by socialist agendas that everyone should have known could not deliver because of foresight rooted in hindsight. Socialism never delivers anything but what we see in France now. As for ado about Brexit, there’s no point in worrying so much since the queen can decide anyway, if she wants to. That’s what the British always tell Americans is so wonderful about the UK’s constitutional monarchy. But, acting like this is a problem helps keep the British press afloat.
A Trump campaign payment is now being compared to a situation with 2004 Democratic candidate John Edwards. But, that has three major holes in its boat: 1. The accusation encircles alleged campaign finance violations surrounding the Trump organization’s lawyer, Cohen, whose job it was to give legal advice; Trump is not a lawyer, Edwards was. Can a lawyer be witness against the client he advised, or secretly recorded? 2. The Mueller investigation sought to understand whether there was wrongful involvement with Russia and Trump. The Fourth Amendment limits the scope of search and seizure to a probable cause and any seized items must be specified by the warrant in advance. By starting with an investigation between Trump and Russia, but ending with a campaign finance accusation against a candidate accused by the lawyer who advised him, this has gone well beyond the scope that the Fourth Amendment was intended to limit. If courts allow this, it shows how much our legal justice system has wandered from the Constitution. 3. The electorate will want a good explanation for why Hillary wasn’t treated this way. The best reason so far would be that the courts have been usurped as a cudgel for political rivals. It’s not Trump who needs to be worried about an indictment; it’s the legal justice system itself that is about to go on trial.
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-Wen apologizing after a mid-term defeat at the provincial level will not demonstrate strength on her part, but she shows respect and stability in maintaining her appointees and policy toward China. Having not stood her ground on information about proposal that would have set Taiwan’s team name at the Olympics in Japan as “Taiwan”, instead of “Taipei”, she lost important support from the Formosan Association for Public Affairs, a group that seeks to have Taiwan internationally recognized as an independent nation.
Taiwan’s premier, William Lai, does stand for Taiwanese independence, held remarkable popularity in his reelection as mayor, and is the shoe-in candidate if he were to run in 2020 instead of Tsai. Tsai’s re-election is uncertain. What happens will depend on Taiwanese politics, which are too adolescent to not be surprised by. Main matters at stake include Taiwan developing faster responses to correct disinformation given to the public and a focus on better quality with internal governance and infrastructure. Interestingly, information and governance—not China itself—are at the heart of resistance to China.
If Taiwan declares independence from China, or takes too many steps to join international bodies like the UN, as Beijing has stated, we could be looking at all out war. Some in the political “news-o-sphere” call Taiwan a “flashpoint”. China hangs onto hopes of retaking Taiwan like King John’s suicidal siege of Rochester Castle. All the US does is provoke.
The latest provocation came late last week when Japan opened the path to retrofitting “helicopter carriers” into fixed-wing aircraft carriers. Japan looks to acquire 142 F35s—42 As and now 100 Bs; the UK eyes 138, about half of them to go to the Royal Navy. There are too many high-tech American aircraft in China’s backyard for China’s comfort. And, the US did two more sail-bys—one near China’s man-made islands, the other through the Taiwan Strait. China lobbed another “demarche” protest with Washington, presuming the action to be “provocative”.
Then came the US-China 90 day cease fire between Trump and Xi at the G20 this past weekend. A lot can happen in 90 days, whether politically, economically, or militarily.
