In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 7, 2018

Author SymphonyPosted on

This was week of talk. A delegation from Washington went to talk with China. Trump talked about talking nice while talking. Economic talking heads are talking about the talks and everybody’s talking about it. Once the delegation that went to Beijing to talk gets back, they will talk with Trump. Warren Buffet even had some things to talk about.

Trump’s delegation to Beijing was indeed an olive branch. It spelled out “the line” in the sand, toured it, explained, it, discussed it, explored it, and made that line very, very clear. To quote Morgan Freeman’s Lucius Fox, “Mr. Wayne didn’t want you to think that he was deliberately wasting your time.” But, the line is not the least bit likely to be respected.

China will ignore everything the US delegation explained and forewarned, but they will never be surprised when Trump does exactly what the delegation said he would, though they may act like it. More importantly, the list of expectations shows how well Trump knows China and Chinese methods of doing “business”.

Words like “retaliate” and “oppose” often surface with disfavor, as well as the US clearly being wise to the tactic of unofficially using backdoor channels to unofficially impose other restrictions to get what one wants. And, the US maintains its position on the “301” trade notice that China is non-market economy, specifically that China is to drop the matter completely and withdraw its appeals on the matter with the WTO.

There is no wiggle room in the US demands and those demands strongly demonstrate that Trump knows exactly the kinds of things Chins is likely to do. In essence the list of demands forbids exactly what China is most likely to do in the near future.

By contrast, China’s demands are mainly that the US back off on its recent action; that’s all. Consider the argument going around from pro-China stories about the trade “imbalance”—especially that US’s service and consulting help to narrow the “trade deficit”. The list of Chinese demands don’t account for this or ask that they be calculated in the “trade deficit”.

The mere demands, in themselves, tell us that China does not know what is about to happen in Washington and that Trump knows all to well—probably better than any of his advisers in the White House—what will happen in Beijing. China is in great danger.

Surprises are coming, somewhere. That’s how history always plays out. No war ends without the unexpected and there’s always a joker or two hiding in the deck. The surprises will likely include special and disputed territories, such as Macau, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, as well as international public opinion and some sector of trade or international protocol not yet considered or discussed by anyone—they will surprise everyone. That “surprise sector” could include ocean boundaries or specific products often traded. It could also be an act of God, such as an earthquake, hurricane, or tsunami. But, we have no idea except that any intermediate history student should anticipate at least two surprises before the current cloud passes in the greater storm.

China looks at the US the way the poor working class looked at the aristocracy in Russia. Beijing thinks they are demanding “what is their right”. Remember, this is akin to “Opium War III”, started by a trade imbalance. China demands that the money and “tax payable by way of free technology” continue to flow net into China; the US demands things like “equal” and “fair” in the flow. That is rhetoric from the Opium War prelude. If that war resurfaces, the “English” speaking country won’t be Britain, though Britain still has a dog in the fight: Hong Kong is not to be changed for fifty years, yet this week Hong Kong military youth groups—comparable to Boy Scouts—rejected Chinese requests that they march according to PLA marching steps—meaning that China tried to make a change and Hong Kong could become a target for punitive action from China. Hence, Hong Kong is “fair play” in everyone’s opinion, including public opinion about everyone in the game.

If China had any kind of conflict with the West—whether militarily or over trade—the conclusion could require complete surrender of Hong Kong back to British rule—and Hong Kongers wouldn’t mind.

In the territorial disputes, Taiwan declaring independence would certainly rock the boat. Research says Taiwanese overwhelmingly view China as unfriendly. So, Taiwanese certainly wouldn’t mind making their contribution to making a few waves.

China is already on the bench with the Korean issue. Pyongyang just updated the North clocks to no longer be thirty minutes off, but back in time with the South. Where’s China?—exchanging trade demands with the country whose trade blockade preceded the Korean talks.

In all this, Warren Buffet’s advice is that China is a good place for the West to invest. We’ll see.

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In Encore

Encore of Revival: America, May 7, 2018

Author SymphonyPosted on

The leaked questions Mueller would ask Trump should raise eyebrows about how deep the Russianewsgategate theatrics go. Contrary to propaganda, the grammatical errors don’t indicate that the list came from Trump because Trump uses very accurate grammar. For example, when most people would say, “They did bad,” Trump often says this correctly, “They did badly.” Interestingly, the “bad grammar” notion about Trump is a pop culture superstition stirred by the press among people who actually do have bad grammar. This coupled with the “bad grammar” argument coming from Mueller’s side of this lynch attempt indicates that the same people promoting the “bad grammar” view of Trump could also likely be behind this framing. Moreover, a “bad grammar” list makes the list more likely authentic, as if it is a collection of small notes of incomplete sentences that an interviewer would refer to when asking the real questions, of course with correct grammar.

Trump’s nonchalant disappointment in the Russianewsgategate investigation indicates that Trump has turned this into a war of legs rather than a war of arms; he intends to let it drag on until it loses all steam and the nation is tired of it—both his supporters tired from the pettiness and his opponents tired from results not delivered.

The Leftist arm of the mass media is certainly helping Trump. The most recent fake news about Cohen’s phone having been tapped—reported by NBC, reiterated by CNBC—is just the latest example. It’s almost as if they are trying to give Trump easy excuses to discredit them.

Another strange aspect of the Russianewsgategate “collusion” myth is the gross contradiction: With all the love and adoration that the Leftist arm of the media has held for Russia, with the Clintons having warm relations with Russia, the same media should be glad if they believe that Trump is working with their Russian role models of economics and leadership. But, they aren’t happy about the prospect of Trump cooperating with Russia because they don’t believe it’s true. This is just a ruse to connect Trump to the Hollywood myth of the “usual RAVs”—”Russians, Arabs, and Villans”. They were hoping that the American public would buy it.

Or were they? If we interpret the actions of the Leftist arm of the media, it seems they throw one slow ball after another so Trump can keep whacking it out of the park. Anti-Trumpists have no reason to be pleased with the Anti-Trump effort from the Leftists media sources they occasionally watch. It looks more and more like the Symphony opinion was right: 2018 could see an uptick in Republican victories—not that the Republican establishment can be trusted, but that times are certainly changing, something uncreative leaders in entrenched establishments loath.

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In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, April 30, 2018

Author SymphonyPosted on

One easy way to understand, at most “anticipate, but at least be unsurprised by developments in Korea and China is the “PDT Symphony Mad Asian Scientist Theorem”. This “Mad Scientist” theorem is not fact and likely untrue, but if applied, events somehow make sense. The theorem is as follows.

Let’s say there is a mad scientist somewhere in Asia who freely travels between China and North Korea. He studies a very specific niche: civilian control. Over the last sixty years or so, he would have easily observed in North Korea what happens to a society with absolute police state control over a comparatively small population completely isolated from the outside world. Propaganda and behavior are equally managed and controlled by the government there. This hypothetical “mad scientist” would have all the information he needs to understand an Orwellian society in full swing.

Then, let’s say, for whatever reason, North Korea is no longer a viable source for his societal studies and experiments—however he manages to implement them. He then goes to China, which seems to be following the same Orwellian methods, but on a population fifty times larger. That is the theorem.

As North Korea stops being the perfect place for the mythical “mad scientist”, China suddenly becomes the new laboratory. It’s not actually happening that way; it just seems to be. One small example of this is China’s new use of facial recognition; police wearing face-recognition glasses, face-recognition police robots looking for bad guys at train stations, and even cameras using face-recognition to crack down on the great threat of J-walking. No question, China is the world’s new North Korea, but with tech the Kim Dynasty never dreamed of.

Whatever is going on behind the scenes, this “peace deal” with North Korea is not all that it is purported or reported to be. South Koreans will be led to believe that the new peace will be the result of the new president Moon Jae-in’s emphasis on “diplomacy”. However much his diplomacy may have in fact helped, it’s not just any old kind of diplomacy. Obama also stressed diplomacy and we saw what happened there—or better said what didn’t happen. South Korea’s president had a special diplomacy, but he hasn’t said what made his so diplomatic methods get actual results.

Just as much, Trump’s embargo against North Korea also stepped up pressure, something obvious that receives some mention, but not much mention because it’s so obvious. The more likely Trump-effected factor in the North Korean deal is China. That you are likely to hear little about from Trump since people who make a difference rarely share all of their trade secrets. Trump is the great deal maker, after all. So, there is no way that we will know what all went on behind the scenes.

What most likely happened was a US implied threat made to China, a simple reveal of US military capability. “China, back off or you’re boiled toast, cooked, and well-done.” That’s what kind of message China must have gotten, one way or another. This is all the more obvious because of China’s response, grasping for friends.

Even with all this bravado about playing hardball with the US, China just opened up foreign investments at warp speed. Of course, China loves it when foreign money flows one-way into its markets. It’s working with an economic team from the US. And, China is also working on economics with its old, hard-earned enemy India—in the same “bromance” as Xi had with Trump.

The India deal won’t work because China always negotiates with a factor of “saving face”, an brittle value. If China really wanted India’s friendship, it would apologize for all past disputes—whether right or wrong—and permanently surrender all disputed land to India. But, it won’t because China isn’t demonstrating any change of heart, only a state of desperation.

For China’s sake, the decision makers in Beijing must be careful. India is no fool and “desperate” is exactly what India will see. India’s president will seek to exploit as much as he can from China, but India is by no means a friend of a nation that wants to be friendly and save face at the same time.

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In Encore

Encore of Revival: America, April 30, 2018

Author SymphonyPosted on

Immigration is at the top of everything—news, speeches, law enforcement…

Building contractors hoping to get the contract for the Trump wall should be very pleased with this caravan of immigrants just arriving at the border, as should the Republican Party. With the failing Russianewsgategate investigation from Mueller, this immigrant caravan has almost guaranteed a contrary-to-the-norm Republican pickup in the 2018 election. Trump even knows that he can threaten to shut down the government to build the wall just before an election.

The interesting part of this caravan—as well as other illegal immigrant crackdown new stories—is that the caravan may actually believe that their journey will have the reverse affect that it’s having. And, the news media also seems to think that reporting on illegal immigration crackdowns will make the public think that immigration is less of a problem. Perhaps the media and the marchers live in the same world. It makes sense since experience in one subculture can cause the reality of another subculture to become counterintuitive.

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In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, April 23, 2018

Author SymphonyPosted on

The US is arming East Asia and disarming North Korea. China is a spectator in the Western game.

Reports and gossip about the latest North Korean promise to disarm ensnared many in the media. The South Korean Kumbaya singing President Moon Jae-in was quick to give his “peace in our time” report that North Korea has promised to disarm, with the connotatively-added meaning of “shortly after his election”. Trump Tweeted that disarming is great, “yuge” news, then the mainstream media ripped on Trump for an unverified report, particularly PBS. (Why does PBS still receive tax dollar money?) Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was more cautions about North Korean false promises, proving himself the most sober in the room.

Japan is looking into a stealthy F-22 F-35 hybrid from Lockheed Martin, in order to deter impedance from “Chinese” and “Russian” jets in its air defense zone. Taiwan is also looking at Patriot missile defense systems. The increased military talk in China’s backyard, particularly about China,  surmounts to the dogs fighting over who gets to eat the pheasant.

China is making so many flybys around Taiwan that scrambling jets over air defense zone approaches is a strain on the Taiwanese military budget. Taiwan might end up sending China a bill, likely by way of military money from the US and US tariffs on not yet mentioned Chinese goods. Also look for new Taiwan-favored trade deficits with the US in amounts similar to the cost of scrambling jets every few days.

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In Encore

Encore of Revival: America, April 23, 2018

Author SymphonyPosted on

Grandpa Giuliani is starring as Marc Antony to end the conflict and save the country from a divisive justice fled to brutish beats from men who have lost their reason. The former mayor is in a position to bring such a resolution. The New York district doing the FBI investigation knows him, his city knows him, the nation knows him, the investigator knows him, the president knows him. He knows everyone in the family as does any grandpa know his own.

Rudy Giuliani has the impeccable credentials Mueller was said to have had before his year-long investigation made wary everyone with any opinion. No one could threaten him, no one would have any cause to investigate him since he has been distant all this time. To investigate Giuliani at this point would beg the same question the Russian attorney is asking: Why hasn’t someone at least interviewed me?

No doubt, the shrinking number of investigation supporters will say, “Trump’s old pal Rudi got him out of it.” But, that won’t help their cause and the investigation will end nonetheless.

As anti-Trump sentiment both shrinks and honkers-down, many are getting fed up, especially with the Starbucks overreaction and now Amazon’s ratings about ratings. Closing thousands of locations for “racial bias” training will backfire; it’s only theater. If Starbucks really cares about solving the problem of “implicit” biases, they would keep their doors open to customers, pay staff to come in early, and train them in smaller groups during breaks over multiple sessions. People know it’s useless, both Leftists and Conservatives, employees and customers. This drama, combined with the overreaction of protesters shouting at Starbucks employees who agree with them will only drive more people to support Trump.

After all, a vote for Trump is really a way of protesting protests.

Then, we have Comey’s book on Amazon. Mashable and the Verge credit Deadline for breaking the story just before 9 p.m. on Friday, which a Rush Limbaugh caller, Chris, mentioned prior to 2 p.m. that same day. Gizmodo mentions that negative reviews won’t be possible from Trump supporters. Generally absent from mainstream articles are any exploration of the idea that phony positive reviews are also disallowed and could be a part of rating fraud or bias. Many also note the same information, that Amazon has blocked non-customer ratings on potentially controversial books in the past.

What we know about Amazon’s block on ratings is an absence of negative reviews and Amazon’s own claim that there appears to be some sort of bias from ratings. Everything real receives good and bad ratings alike. After this, Amazon’s reviews will likely lose credibility.

With the Starbucks overreaction and now Amazon claiming that its own rating system of Comey’s new book is in question, we could be looking at such a surge of new Trump voters that 2018 actually sees a boost in the Republican victories in the House and Senate. But, things are so wild and goofy these days that we can’t make heads or tails of what is going on politically. The swamp is being drained and, in any foreseeable case, Trump will almost certainly win again in 2020 and we are staring down the road of a future Republican Supreme Court.

Trump’s appointee to the Supreme Court, Justice Neil Gorsuch, voted against action that would normally favor Trump’s campaign platform to fix immigration. The ruling, however, was not about politics, but about sloppily-written law. We need laws to be written better and we need a Supreme Court that thinks so.

Barbara Bush passed away last week at the age of 92. She was mourned by friends, family, and all living past presidents.

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