Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 1, 2016

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 1, 2016

A pro-China policy has made a Hong Kong politician famous. The fuel was supplied to the press, then the press sold newspapers. National Party and pro-independence candidate Chan Ho-tin has received more international press in one day than almost any other politician in Hong Kong can hope for in an entire career. An individual in the Hong Kong government determined that Chan was not “sincere” enough in his pledge to uphold Hong Kong’s “Basic Law”, which defines Hong Kong as a part of China.

While Chan had help becoming famous, Yeung Ke-cheong got himself disqualified from the same election all by himself, simply by not making the necessary pledge. Chan plans to appeal the decision. A politician from an opposing party put Chan in the same category as a terrorist, yet has not provided explanation for how terrorists usually have no problem with “sincerity” one way or another. After considering this, there appears to be no unified coordination coming from Hong Kong against pro-independence politicians. Moreover, there seems to be no concern from Beijing over how one individual’s decision in Hong Kong resulted in the international fame of their political opponent. Beijing might have been more pleased had Chan’s pledge been accepted, he been allowed to run, then been indited for perjury once there was sufficient evidence that his pledge had not been genuine, but now we won’t know.

Were it not for this incident, many Westerners might not even know that Hong Kong even has a pro-independence movement. Now, the West does. Usually, one wants one’s enemies to receive as little press as possible. This all makes the opposition to the opposition look a little less organized, making the initial opposition seem less serious for opposing such a disorganized opposition to their opposition. And, that makes the whole thing seem somewhat absurd. In it all, the West was roused against Beijing once again by the international attention on Hong Kong, “Asia’s World City”.

Meanwhile, in the South Sea, Beijing has cited the 1986 incident, when the US refused Hague’s ruling to pay reparations to Nicaragua. However, there seemed to be no comment from Beijing on how many other countries Beijing is ignoring in its policy in the South Sea. Unfortunately, both the US and Beijing speak mainly of Hague where Hague rulings are concerned, rather than keeping the focus on international community. It seems that Hague is the big distraction for both the US and China. With Russia teaming up with China for a semi-routine naval exercise in the South Sea this coming September, the international community’s opinion is relevant, even though it does not see much limelight.

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Encore of Revival: America, August 1, 2016

Encore of Revival: America, August 1, 2016

Russia steps it up with subs, naval cooperation with China, and—hurting Hillary’s election chances? Jeff Bezos is now advising the Pentagon.  And, NATO “has no chance”. What’s happening in America?—the clefting of revival.

The DNC convention saw a former president while the RNC convention saw none. Similarly to Obama, Trump campaigned against the Bush dynasty, which apparently is not the Republican party. A lot of things don’t seem to be the Republican party.

Clinton’s polls continue to slide. Trump sabotaged the DNC convention with his own press conference. Things are changing one way or another. The next president will likely serve two terms and will be the last president from the DNC or the RNC, ever.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 25, 2016

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 25, 2016

The words “China” and “tariffs” are appearing in headlines together again. Cambodia is seen as a Chinese puppet in ASEAN. And, one dissenting opinion from Forbes claims that tariffs are only about consumers, not about jobs and whole economies. Contrary to China’s unspoken messages, Beijing asks for more economic cooperation, but Europe is stealing the limelight.

If China were truly interested in global economic growth, they should move their shadow away from the economic shipping lanes in the South China sea. But, that idea doesn’t exactly come to mind to the Communist worldview, which presumes that success is bestowed rather than sown and reaped.

Taiwan’s order of 50 some amphibious vehicles from the US has been delayed until 2020, three and a half years. Yet, the US called on Taiwan to create a vehicle for a lunar landing. One would think that Taiwan might build 50 some lunar landing vehicles for Taiwanese use under water, especially since the specs should not be as complex, but that was not reported. Perhaps the US could divert NASA resources to Taiwan’s security to ensure that the lunar vehicle supplier is not crushed by an invasion from China, but that was not reported either.

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Encore of Revival: America, July 25, 2016

Encore of Revival: America, July 25, 2016

Americans got to know Trump a little better this week. Many young Democrats will also get to know him at the debates when they watch him unedited for the first time, as predicted here many times. Some people still think a losing third party is not just another tool of the two-party system.

Some people were not surprised by Trump “appearing more presidential” in his speech. Some people see smoke on the horizon before others; some people never see the smoke no matter how close they are. The stats of who blooms late and early will predict Trump’s election. You have read it here already many times because it was all predictable to those who understand the times.

After Monday’s failed coup on rules, Cruz permanently removed himself from politics Wednesday night. Cruz’s so-called “values” demonstrably include: If someone finds your secret pet peeve and pushes the button, then you are obligated to sabotage your own career and lose whatever you stood to gain for your loyal supporters. It’s better to know sooner than later: he probably won’t make it to the Supreme Court as he might have after all.

Why did Ailes leave Fox? Throw into the mix the main viewing audience’s political party’s nomination for president: consider parallel timing of events, factor enemies and allies, then it all makes plausible sense without explanation.

Islamic attacks are no longer worthy of headlines. How many people saw that coming?

Donald J Trump Jr’s. speech writer, FH Buckley, was accused of plagiarizing the speech he himself wrote from an article he himself wrote—before the critics knew he was a speech writer. How many people saw that coming?

Numbers don’t lie. Trends do indicate. Read the times. Know the signs of the seasons. And remember what the papa tomato said to the baby tomato while crossing the street: Ketchup.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 18, 2016

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 18, 2016

The Hague ruling has stirred the waters and the ripples are bouncing. According to the tribunal, China has no basis for its claims concerning the nine-dash line. However, this also affects sovereign waters Taiwan has enjoyed, and it has implications for an islet Japan uses as a basis for a wide reaching aquatic claim.

Taiwan, still at war with China on the books, also rejected Hague’s decision through a legislative vote, based on over-lapping claims with China. Japan’s situation was not brought before the court.

The Chinese people would likely view Taiwan’s independence much the same as Americans might view a Texan succession from the Union. There is a complex mix of feelings and motives. Love knows when to let go; Asians rarely let go in family, let alone business and government.

China pointed out that there were no Asians ruling at the tribunal. Those involved couldn’t possibly understand—or could they? Asians have failed to resolve their disputes while Western nations, as evidenced in the last couple weeks, know how to part ways peacefully.

Some speculate that China and its neighbors will figure out a solution between themselves. However, if that were possible, it would have already happened and there would have been no excuse for the Hague tribunal in the first place. Unfortunately, Asia will likely play out the family feuds to see how many demands which party is too bloody to make, giving America the excuse it needs to continue to interfere. It’s hard to defend any party in the conflict.

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Encore of Revival: America, July 18, 2016

Encore of Revival: America, July 18, 2016

News is getting to a point of being too much to follow. The coup in Turkey failed from lack of support, both internal and public. According to a Fox News Opinion article, the coup sought to remove an anti-Constitution member of the Muslim Brotherhood. The coup supposedly failed because they took opportunity while the president was away rather than seizing him and the media. It almost stands as a warning, of sorts to the US, given the discussions surrounding the Constitution in America. What warning, specifically, is yet to be known.

Obama’s performance has single-handedly created support for Sanders and Trump and he is either unable or unwilling to reverse the escalation of violence in America. The Democratic party, being anything but democratic, doomed Sanders from the beginning, as you have read here many times. This week, Sanders finally capitulated to the Hillary machine. Trump will snatch up at least half of Sanders’s supporters when they discover that Trump says many of the same things. With the face-off approaching, they might have an opportunity where they can’t not listen to Trump anymore. Sanders captured a “never Hillary” base. The days of the “Donkey Democrats” are passing as the Baby Boomers age. People are listening and switching.

Trump chose a running mate based on the resume. There is no doubt that Pence will be advising the White House on particulars of making good policy. Bernie supporters are having as much fun with the initials of “Trump-Pence” as Conservatives did with Barak Obama’s.

France saw another tragedy and the political grandstanding script has become so wearisome that even an attempt at calling for legislation in the aftermath could turn a base against their own long-standing politician. None of the scripts seem to be working anymore. The body count is just too high.

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