Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 28, 2018

The US “disinvited” two countries this week, not only North Korea, but also China from the biannual naval exercises in Hawaii. Both “disinvitations” were a rescinding of a previous invitation after less than friendly saber rattling from the former invitee. Kim Jong Un’s loud mouth is widely known, so the North Korean “disinvitation” came as no surprise.

China, specifically, has been pressuring African countries to “dis-recognize” Taiwan in favor of Beijing policy. Additionally, China has been pressuring US companies to follow otherwise unrecognized Chinese maps placing Taiwan under China’s political sovereignty, as well as companies from other countries—which Taiwan is not currently under the control of. China sees the request as part of a grand goal of “reunification” and a nostalgic return to the rhapsodic geographical past as the keystone of a socioeconomic strengthening strategy.

The problem from the Western corporate perspective is with the dictionary, not with ideology. China’s government does not decide the laws on Taiwan’s island currently, not in any way. So, listing Taiwan “under” China would create confusion for Western tourists. But, China is run by Communists who believe that logistics are to be dictated, not recognized. In the land of Communist-Chinese, if tourists would be confused, the solution is to simply make a new law this afternoon outlawing tourists who are confused. So, Beijing doesn’t believe the West has any legitimate problem with the policy, but that Western companies are only trying to spite Beijing.

Washington, however, does view the problem as ideological. It would be wrong for Washington to dictate the organizational nomenclature of the Bank of China or Sky News or Spotify. So would be any reciprocal resemblance. Under Trump, Washington is enforcing that ideology globally.

Then, there was yet another snafu among China’s man-made islands. The US can’t stop making news in Taiwan. A Senator makes an “unexpected” visit. US weapons developers are planning to set up shop in Taiwan. The US and Taiwan have decided that they can’t build Taiwanese submarines fast enough. And, the US has decided that Taiwan needs the absolutely best defense to respond to Chinese “saber rattling”, not only asymmetric defense. All of this is remarkably irritating and “disrespectful” to China.

China hates few things more than being disrespected.

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Encore of Revival: America, May 28, 2018

Charlie Cook now says what Symphony has said for weeks: Republicans look more and more like they are headed for an unusual midterm upswing. The part you won’t read is how much it looks like a Democrat conspiracy to get Republicans elected—because, if reverse psychology were the plan, Democrats played every note on cue and in key. There’s no evidence of this at all, other than how incredibly flawless the execution seems to be. Either it is a conspiracy for some crazy cause or the current Democrats in office are just as stupid as the Republicans during Bush’s second term.

The general political trend over the weekend was the correlation between society and meteorology. The day after a civil protest occurs, the weather goes nutso. If the government “zaps” publication of the courts, lightning strikes sixty thousand times. If a mob floods the streets one day, a flood floods the streets the next. Now, a hurricane is on its way to Florida. Make sure, if you plan to go golfing in the afternoon, don’t express any objections outside any government buildings in the morning. Your T-time might get rained on.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 21, 2018

Talk only went so far this week. I looks as if North Korea might not be dismantling its nukes, but hiding them, then threatening to close talks when exposed for this, then threatening to cancel the summit for some other list of excuses.

The big question on Kim Jong-Un backing out on the talks relates to his recent visits to China. Not that China has made any wild promises, but he feels somewhat confident in getting lippy with the US.

The big lesson was about Moon’s emphasis on diplomacy vs Trump’s emphasis on teeth. Diplomacy made progress in terms of leading to more diplomacy. But, actual action is a measurement of its own. So far, Trump’s action has led to China losing interest in any kind of trade war and Moon’s favored diplomacy seems to be leading to an undiplomatic end to diplomacy.

Things aren’t over nor have we seen the last surprise. The big news of the week is that China’s on the bench. Moon and Trump will meet to discuss Kim having a discussion with them in Singapore. Where’s China?—announcing its surrender on trade, reflecting on past meetings with Kim, another player that doesn’t really matter.

If Kim doesn’t show up, Moon’s populist diplomacy will prove to have failed and Trump will have the “political currency” for action against North Korea. Maybe that’s what China hopes for in allowing Kim to gain false hopes in something or other—to rationalize a little retaliatory action of its own. But, if military action was China’s first preference, Beijing would have already taken it.

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Encore of Revival: America, May 21, 2018

Call it a Shame of Thrones or a Game of Showns, but Mueller has shown his game to his own shame. By waiting as long as he has, Trump possesses the “political currency” to order the DOJ to investigate the Obama FBI. He couldn’t have done that a year ago. But, by letting Mueller “mull” on, as it were, the Russianewsgategate “thing” has irritated everyone, even the Anti-Trumpists, for its lack of results, yet continued pursuit in what looks more and more like a ghost chase every day—now every hour.

Roger Stone says Trump might not run in the next term—if he gets his [twelve years worth of] work done in only four. With Democrats requiring 84 days to approve each of 300 Trump appointees, it’s unlikely Trump will finish in four years, as Stone’s hypothetical went. Michael Jordan said the same thing about himself year after year, that he might not play the following season—encouraging his opponents to get lazy. It’s a ruse Trump opponents would be foolish to buy into. If the Democrats really wanted Trump to not run again, they would approve all his Senate appointees and build his wall in one vote. Then, it would be difficult for Trump to argue any need to stay, even with such “huge” results.

The Senate’s vote on net neutrality is a necessary step. Internet needs some kind of regulation, even if to say that it needs no regulation, even if to protect it from anti-Capitalist corptocrats who donate to “Blue Dog Republicans”. If Facebook and Google want to provide faster Internet then they can become their own Internet service providers. If Verizon wants to say which big, fat companies can “pay for lane” in the website rat race, then Verizon should provide that Internet service free of charge. But, as long as customers pay, those customers should get to decide the lanes. This is not to be decided by Verizon, AT&T, Facebook, Google, Apple, and other big, fat companies that have more money than many governments of the world. Capitalism does not infer that private companies should overrule human rights.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 14, 2018

Disassembling nuke sites prior to meeting Trump may seem like a “save of face” for Kim Jong-Un, but it’s actually a statement of Trump’s influence. If Trump wasn’t an influence, then Kim wouldn’t be doing what Trump has been demanding for a long time. No doubt, North Korea and its pro-Communist supporters in the Liberal media will twist this into “Trump not making a difference” from Trump getting what he wanted even before a meeting.

The comparison from history would be a feudal lord quickly accomplishing everything his king asked before his next royal visit. To say the king didn’t make a difference would be just plain ignorant. We should expect as much.

But, Trump wants it that way. The more Trump has his name on the Korean reunification, the more China’s desperate thirst for “respect” will sting. China wants everything to look like everything everywhere was China’s idea, or else throw a temper tantrum. Trump’s low-key silence will deny the “fight fix” and the semi-centennial tantrum will have to wait a little longer.

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Encore of Revival: America, May 14, 2018

Trump rescinding the so-called “Iran deal” will improve his position with other nations, North Korea only being one of them. Actually, it wasn’t a “deal” because Iran never signed anything.

Any “reputation” lost would be on Iran’s side for entering into a “deal” that even they didn’t commit to. Now the non-committal “deal” is off. Iran shouldn’t have expected anything. Now, at the bargaining table, Trump will be in a better position because nations know that he will actually follow through and only make deals that are real and binding.

This goes back to Obama’s great failure of his own base: He didn’t make laws that would last, he only made policies that depend on him being president in order to last, in this he exploited his voters by giving them high hopes and letting them get angry—the whole time Obama never told his own supporters the truth that everything he accomplished after Obamacare was designed to be blown away with the wind.

Iranians weren’t the only party with “gullible” written their foreheads; Obama voters were too, and Obama conned all of them.

The disturbing thing about the Iran “deal” is the reaction. Russia is very protective of that “deal”. That should be enough to call the “deal” off—and to prove that there was no substance in the Russianewsgategate “collusion” myth. But, where are all the stories in the press about how the “deal” was bad for the US? Having given $1.7B in cash to Iran should at least receive mention from a supposed “non-biased” media.

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