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In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 30, 2020

Author SymphonyPosted on

America has China fooled yet again. It isn’t hard to figure out, but still ingenious. Whatever strategist first learned it from a convenient mistake that happened with Taiwan. Taiwan’s current president, Tsai Ing-Wen, had previously endorsed Hillary, for 2016—a mistake she didn’t repeat in the 2020 election. When Trump was elected, Taiwan’s government was heavily concerned about retaliation from the Trump administration. But, Americans don’t hold grudges nor do we hold high regard for the opinions of foreign world leaders. Tsai reached out to Trump and they soon developed one of the best relationships heads of state ever shared.

China’s president, Xi Jinping, doesn’t seem to have learned that lesson, however. While many world leaders congratulated Biden when the news industry decided what the future should be, China waited until the GSA got the green light for transition steps. Then, he congratulated Biden on his victory. Taiwan still has not made any move since the electoral college has not convened and remains neutral and welcoming toward whomever the American president will be in January. China’s position shows worry mixed with miscalculation.

When Trump’s lawsuits, appeal to state legislatures, and near 80% support from his suspecting base land him a second term, China will be in for a shock. They will fear retaliation just as Taiwan did, no matter how unwarranted. This will drive China to take defensive measures without need and appear as the provocateur of the coming US-China conflict. Having served its purpose, US ambiguity over the election will quickly pass, and China’s leadership will begin to socially self destruct. Then hold on; things will be furious as they will be fast.

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In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 23, 2020

Author SymphonyPosted on

“Prematurely shredded”—that’s how the “Five Eyes” alliance described the treaty allowing Hong Kong to be ruled by China. Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Britain, and the United States have decided that China broke the deal, referring to the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration. The danger is in how much China can’t understand what this means.

Accusing Confucian-Communists of breaking a promise is like accusing a pig of rooting in its own feces; it doesn’t know, it doesn’t understand, it can’t do differently, and it only feels insulted. The Chinese don’t know what a promise is because they never keep them—ever. They only know what they want and that they want it now. They were never going to keep their end of the deal, and Britain knew that, and China played right along.

Broken treaties are no small matter. In a sense, Western nations see it as a blaring stain on a nation’s permanent record. Far worse than financial bankruptcy is moral bankruptcy. The West played its hand well, waiting until China overreached time and again, to a point where the evidence was overwhelming, past the point where the people had come to the same conclusion long ago. Western governments can’t operate without the will of their people, which is another thing China doesn’t understand.

In its attempt at a hostile takeover of the world, China needed the goodwill of the masses. It’s action in Hong Kong over the past year stirred anything but goodwill. Western governments will be in trouble with their taxpayers if they don’t take action against China.

So, one more stone falls into the arch of Western action against China. With a declared-broken treaty on record, once the Chinese gets their ass handed to them, permanent surrender of Hong Kong—including the New Territories—will be in the growing list of the West’s unconditional terms. And, China made it all possible.

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In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 16, 2020

Author SymphonyPosted on

America is one of the most cunning nations, almost as much so as Britain. Chinese are known for signing contracts early, then negotiating after—something the West calls “reneging”, which breaks the contract. London always knew China wouldn’t be able to keep a promise, let alone a promise to not control and interfere.

But, almost as cunning is the appearance of election-based chaos stirring in America. Republican and Democratic voters have been building mutual hatred for a long time. Fighting within the country is real and believable. It was sparked by ambiguity, the cause of which is easily explained by what appears, for all intents and purposes, as vote fraud. That doesn’t take much manipulation of the masses, only a small push to send society tumbling over the ledge of insanity. And, China was sure to believe it.

But, there is a difference between America and China which the Chinese cannot understand: centralized power. Chinese-based governments, including democratic Taiwan, struggle to think outside the box of micromanagement. China doesn’t know that the US Navy in the Indo-Pacific region is capable of operating and responding, even if all communication is cut off from Washington. That was the purpose of the “boomer” submarines.

The Chinese people are beaten down. It’s a culture-wide mental state akin to groupthink Stockholm syndrome. The Beijing government truly believes the Chinese people will never rebel. So, when they see America in disorder, they will think democracy itself has failed. But, they don’t understand that the people of a nation are always stronger than the institutions they create, including government, which only derives its power from the people who allow it to be so powerful. Not only can America’s government continue to function with American society in a level of chaos, China’s government cannot be stronger than its own beaten-down people.

If China wanted to be strong enough to stand against America, it could have started by living up to the name of its army and actually “liberating” its people from a culture in which everyone is an oppressed-oppressing slave. Yes, America can deal with riots at home and kick China’s ass in the Pacific at the same time. China doesn’t think so; that’s exactly what the Pentagon hopes.

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In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 9, 2020

Author SymphonyPosted on

China and Taiwan are in a military face-off for a singular reason: xenophobia. Taiwan had everything it needed to counter China without help from the US, but it snubbed foreigners and still continues to do so today. Were it not for the US, neither China nor Taiwan would have limped so far along. China’s “miracle” economy was made of money from the US. Taiwan’s weapons use technology developed primarily by the US.

As much as both China and Taiwan have benefited from the US, these two countries have some of the most strict laws against naturalizing foreigners. That doesn’t include a serious lack of protection against intrusion of immigrants’ rights. When Americans—or any other Westerner—or any other foreigner for that matter—finds work in Taiwan or China, companies impose extra rules to take away what few legal rights they have as foreign employees; then government does nothing, it just sits there and watches. In Taiwan, this largely happens with employment. In China, it happens with entire companies.

Even if foreign workers can find a way to survive the onslaught of attacks against their rights, the most they could expect in the end is an elevated residence status—if they are rich. If they aren’t wealthy, no chance. Without citizenship, foreigners in Taiwan have few rights—they aren’t even allowed a phone and landlords can reject them merely on the basis of being a foreigner.

China aside, if Taiwan allowed, then protected a path to citizenship for Westerners working in Taiwan, those naturalized citizens would have had more rights to work and contribute to Taiwan’s culture, language, economy, and technology. If that had happened, it very well could be the US seeking to buy weapons from Taiwan, and China might be more inclined to behave.

The same could be said of China, which has made itself so desperately dependent on US money by keeping foreigners within their own borders at an arm’s length.

This conflict between Taiwan and China was caused by xenophobia from both sides. By not demanding equal respect toward Americans in their borders, but engaging in trade and weapons sales anyway, the US allowed two kittens to grow into a bobcat and a tiger. And, now the whole world faces a huge cat fight—whenever China decides to take advantage of the election ambiguity in the US and bust a foolish move against Taiwan.

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In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 2, 2020

Author The EditorPosted on

China, China, China. What is the world to think? As a condition of formalizing relations between the United States and Communist-controlled China, US law mandated weapons sales to Taiwan. Now, China is angry that the US upheld this law. Would they prefer the US to break the agreement and shift formal relations back to Taiwan?

In response to the required weapons sales, China sanctioned Boeing’s weapons sector, which China buys nothing from. The sanctions did not cover the sector of Boeing where China buys the planes that its Confucian-Communist-oppressed culture does not know how to build. Now, Beijing argues that military planes must fly through Taiwan-controlled airspace and over the island of Taiwan. And, if Taiwan were to fire upon these planes, it would mean war. Do the Chinese believe that the world believes that?

If two countries have a territory dispute, but are not engaged in an armed conflict, then one side of the dispute sends military equipment and personnel into territory controlled by the other side of the dispute, the rest of the world will see the invader as the perpetrator and villain of any armed contest that ensues. If China doesn’t back off, the world will blame China. This is not an opinion or preference; it is a fact of the future based on history, but Confucian-Communists can’t see the difference between history, opinion, and propaganda. And, that makes anticipating the future nearly impossible for them. China will be shocked by what was obvious to everyone else. It has always been that way.

China is not only fighting Taiwan nor only India nor only Japan. China is fighting the world. And, China doesn’t know China can’t win against the world. These are dangerous times. That’s the one thing everyone knows.

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In Cadence

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 26, 2020

Author SymphonyPosted on

The flashpoint of Taiwan has become a pregnant possibility. Reportedly, a US military jet flew across Taiwan, and no one is fully certain over who claimed what and why. Taiwan’s government said something after the US government said something about the mission. Then the US government said that they weren’t saying what the mission was. So, the Taiwan government said that they weren’t saying what the US government wasn’t saying about what the US government said about why what happened happened. And, we’re not even sure what happened because the identifier tags could have been spoofed.

In the end, China fell for the bait as if on cue. The Chinese State-run Global Times then published a story sometimes written in the first-person stating that the US isn’t allowed to fly military operations over Taiwan and that China would send its military planes over Taiwan if the US did. The story went on to speculate that Taiwan didn’t have the unction—more or less—to fire the first shot at a Chinese plane in Taiwan sovereign airspace. That proves what China is really thinking about: pushing and pushing, trying to call Taiwan’s bluff, wondering who will fire the first shot—because China is hoping someone will fire the first shot.

After all the information China gave away about its intentions—after what seemed like a fluke between Washington and Taipei—don’t think for a second that said fluke was not a well-calculated fluke. The bigger takeaway is that China keeps falling for the bait while Washington learns to anticipate China enough to lead the Chinese Communist military right into its own defeat—and China shows the learning curve of a cat chasing a laser dot.

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